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tallyho_83
03 November 2019 12:06:23

A cold outliar as expected looking at the ensembles - but many others are below norm anyway:



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
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Brian Gaze
03 November 2019 12:19:57

GFS 6z op and control both notably cold at times.



 


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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ballamar
03 November 2019 17:56:05
Some impressive blocking on the 12z any blobs of warming seem to quickly inflate the high pressure at the moment. 2010 looks a possibility
Sevendust
03 November 2019 19:51:07

ECM looks a shocker with low pressures further south than normal and a lot of rain

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 November 2019 07:04:26

An unrelenting procession of depressions for some time to come, with a notably deeper one around the 11th(ECM) or 12th(GFS). After that these two models diverge, GFS continuing the unsettled theme, but ECM developing a large HP cell mid-Atlantic linking with a less well defined HP over Scandi. The latter is supported by the BBC look ahead which suggested its earlier (by a few days) development.


Varous posters have been excited about blocking but I don't buy it. Certainly HP to the north persists, but it seems to me 'faute de mieux'. it's just that all the depressions are directed elsewhere, and there's no well-defined cell until 13th (ECM, mid-Atlantic) or beyond the Urals (GFS).


Ensembles showing fair agreement with each other, generally cold and wet at first, slowly relenting in about 10 days' time, the far NW getting off more lightly than it normally does at the start of the period.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
JACKO4EVER
04 November 2019 09:51:26
Morning all, the current output looks unrelentingly grim with cool temperatures and lots of rainfall.
Maunder Minimum
04 November 2019 11:49:36

Some impressive blocking on the 12z any blobs of warming seem to quickly inflate the high pressure at the moment. 2010 looks a possibility

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Also, there are early indications that the Strat Vortex is going to be warmed and diminished in the coming weeks, which can only enhance the possibilities of northern blocking. From what I gather, this is not a SSW, but a virtuous feedback from the Trop into the Strat caused by anomalous northern blocking.


The weather is a complex beast - usually we get a zonal reinforcing mechanism which knocks our hopes of a decent winter into a cocked hat, but there must be occasions when the reinforcing is the other way, otherwise how could we ever get our infrequent classic winters?


 


New world order coming.
Perthite1
04 November 2019 14:00:20


 


Also, there are early indications that the Strat Vortex is going to be warmed and diminished in the coming weeks, which can only enhance the possibilities of northern blocking. From what I gather, this is not a SSW, but a virtuous feedback from the Trop into the Strat caused by anomalous northern blocking.


The weather is a complex beast - usually we get a zonal reinforcing mechanism which knocks our hopes of a decent winter into a cocked hat, but there must be occasions when the reinforcing is the other way, otherwise how could we ever get our infrequent classic winters?


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


The Southern Hemisphere has just seen one of its strongest sudden stratospheric warmings on record. It started in Late August and propagated down into the Troposphere over the past few weeks. Not sure what if any impacts there will be in the Northern hemisphere, but it's causing some real extremes of cool and heat here in Perth this Spring. 

David M Porter
04 November 2019 14:43:30


 


Also, there are early indications that the Strat Vortex is going to be warmed and diminished in the coming weeks, which can only enhance the possibilities of northern blocking. From what I gather, this is not a SSW, but a virtuous feedback from the Trop into the Strat caused by anomalous northern blocking.


The weather is a complex beast - usually we get a zonal reinforcing mechanism which knocks our hopes of a decent winter into a cocked hat, but there must be occasions when the reinforcing is the other way, otherwise how could we ever get our infrequent classic winters?


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Maybe it was the kind of feedback from the trop into the strat as a result of northern blocking that led to the severe cold spells seen in both winter 2009/10 and December 2010, Maunder. I could be wrong, but I don't think either was a direct result of a SSW event.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
04 November 2019 17:28:09

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Well, I think any chance of colder weather is going to affect first in Scotland and N. Ireland later this Week, and again by Monday to Tuesday after this coming Week's end.


Rain and Low Pressure, looks set to continue for the next two weeks.


GFS, UKMO and ICON models look at 12z today looks like this.


Less chilly in Central and South UK.


So maybe as we get to about November the 20th, there could be a chance of a Scandinavian high that could maybe not sure though as I can see on GFS operational 12z run today.


Hmm.


Regular reviews of the forecast is important.


But it is we should continue to look to the West and Northwest, for our weather for the next 2 weeks..


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
richardabdn
04 November 2019 18:06:55

Morning all, the current output looks unrelentingly grim with cool temperatures and lots of rainfall.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


It’s just the worst synoptics imaginable bringing day after day of unmitgated horror.


Could end up even worse than December 2002 – the most revolting month of my lifetime. Then we had a three day frosty spell just after mid-month that brought nearly all of the month’s pitiful sunshine total. Other than that there were only two dry days and five days that recorded any sunshine. This month is heading in exactly the same direction but without any sign of even a brief high pressure interlude.


I have seriously never seen such dire model output in all the years I’ve been viewing it


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits
Gooner
04 November 2019 18:24:24

After login issues its good to be back on ( Thanks Brian )


I am slightly optimistic looking at the charts , some blocking is certainly on offer , but far too early to 'that' excited 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


ballamar
04 November 2019 18:59:11
ECM looks like a classic pre cold spell set-up where it will be milder before the cold penetrates to Europe. High will become difficult to shift with the early snow and cold over Scandinavia. Fun this early in the silly season
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
04 November 2019 19:21:52

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There appears to be some potential interesting weather for the 10 days of mid-November, we have Thursday being affected by Low Pressure, that departs on Friday 8th Nov., then on Saturday we have Shortwave spread across UK- bringing a spell of rain then cool with heavy blustery showers.


By Sunday the 10th and Monday the 11th November, the UK looks like being affected by further Deep Low pressure directed SE from the NW Atlantic with Blocking over Iceland and Greenland and maybe also over Norway and North Sea as well.


It looks like bringing heavy rain then heavy blustery showers and mild air, to the UK.


Then at around that timeframe the Models e.g., ICON and ECMWF have two active PV Low's merging over NE USA and Newfoundland that tell me that if we get blocking in Western North Atlantic and blocking in Greenland and North Atlantic to our NW and North there could be a interesting trend and pattern developing possibly from that time point forwards hmm.


Will the GFS learn from ICON, UKMO and ECMWF- the UKMO looks very windy and wet on Thursday this week as well.


The GFS downgrades the Low Pressure over the UK on Saturday and Sunday November 9th and 10th.


But ICON and ECMWF show that Deep Low over the UK on Sunday to Tuesday Nov. 10-13th.


Que sera whatever will be will be but never for us to see eh.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Bertwhistle
04 November 2019 19:29:27


After login issues its good to be back on ( Thanks Brian )


I am slightly optimistic looking at the charts , some blocking is certainly on offer , but far too early to 'that' excited 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


True. Nice to hear from you however.


Gavin's thoughts talks about cooler than average Mid Atlantic, warm Tropical Atlantic. Might help to account for cyclonic activity dipping south a bit, with reluctant HP belts developing, without great tenacity, over the fifties and higher. GFS seems to give sinking lows a helping hand quite a lot over the past few days.


 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
moomin75
04 November 2019 19:34:12


After login issues its good to be back on ( Thanks Brian )


I am slightly optimistic looking at the charts , some blocking is certainly on offer , but far too early to 'that' excited 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Welcome back Marcus. The charts have stirred me from summer hibernation too and they look a little bit interesting. If we can get some repeating patterns throughout the next few months there could be something of interest for all us winter lovers. Here's hoping to another exciting season of model watching for all of us.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 November 2019 06:54:27

LP continues to dominate the weather over the UK for the foreseeable - nothing particularly deep or active, just one centre after another drifting through, and the centres further south than you would expect for this time of year, so some cool NE-lies off the N Sea. GFS has a brief window of a ridge from Atlantic to Scandi 16th/17th but it doesn't last. ECM doesn't go that far, but does develop strong high pressure cells over both these locations without at that stage (14th) linking them up.


BTW, ECM has a particularly nasty storm off New England at that stage, but GFS doesn't buy it.


GEFS ensembles match the above with temps consistently about 3C below normal out to the 16th, then back to average but a wide scatter developing. Rain randomly everywhere, just a hint that the far N will be drier than average though not exempt from all rain - backed up by http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gooner
05 November 2019 08:33:01

Just gone through the ENS blimey there are some mad looking charts about 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


nsrobins
05 November 2019 11:31:19


Just gone through the ENS blimey there are some mad looking charts about 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Agreed - it’s almost like the algorithms are straining every sinew to revert to a default zonal but something keeps saying ‘no we’re going full northern blocking so get lost’ 😉


Whether it’s unusual or not I’m not sure but some of the output going towards December would tempt Gary Sarre back from retirement.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Whiteout
05 November 2019 13:32:20


 


Agreed - it’s almost like the algorithms are straining every sinew to revert to a default zonal but something keeps saying ‘no we’re going full northern blocking so get lost’ 😉


Whether it’s unusual or not I’m not sure but some of the output going towards December would tempt Gary Sarre back from retirement.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Certainly raised an eye brow from me Neil wink


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