Interesting GFS run with Azores hug building over Scandinavia and then signs of retrogression to Greenland. Another variance on the blocking location

As others have said - the last few runs of GFS looks like the Atlantic tries to get going (if not already) but reverts back to a blocked outlook, with an active atlantic being forced south to the med.

This is very encouraging, and something ive not seen for years - such resilience for blocking to rise from the ashes over and over.

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Interesting GFS run with Azores hug building over Scandinavia and then signs of retrogression to Greenland. Another variance on the blocking location

Been looking into this on various weather blogs - the conventional opinion is that the Trop is currently disconnected from the Strat and that for some reason the usual forcings are not at play.

Conventional longer range forecasts (Mogreps anyone?) would have the Strat forcing itself onto the Trop in coming weeks and a traditional zonal pattern setting up - but could this be the year when that does not happen for whatever reason? (Deep solar minimum).

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A shame that it seems to be down to me and a few other select people to keep this thread alive while everyone are talking political bollocks elsewhere in this site.

I've made a few posts on the forum recently and elsewhere. The weather in recent weeks has been interesting but the reality is most members are interested in snow and not weather. That has always been the case and is one of the reasons why I haven't really plugged the forum part of the site in recent years.

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Been looking into this on various weather blogs - the conventional opinion is that the Trop is currently disconnected from the Strat and that for some reason the usual forcings are not at play.

Conventional longer range forecasts (Mogreps anyone?) would have the Strat forcing itself onto the Trop in coming weeks and a traditional zonal pattern setting up - but could this be the year when that does not happen for whatever reason? (Deep solar minimum).

Lots of stratospheric sulphur dioxide kicking about this year thanks to a couple of volcanic eruptions. 🙂

 

I've made a few posts on the forum recently and elsewhere. The weather in recent weeks has been interesting but the reality is most members are interested in snow and not weather. That has always been the case and is one of the reasons why I haven't really plugged the forum part of the site in recent years.

Particularly snow, but not only snow. Any form of extreme and unusual weather for these islands, which includes (not exclusively) snow, more snow, heavy snow, blizzards and also ice days, heavy frosts, freezing fog, oh and did I mention snow?

Then there are strong gales, heatwaves, torrential rain, floods, hail, tornadoes (not many of them) and err snow (did I mention that?).

P.S. ECM 12Z looks interesting if you want to see some early signs of winter.

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Hints of high pressure building over Scandi again nothing too cold but nice to see the patterns there

Tomorrow/Saturday's depression now forecast to be deeper and more violent (not too strong a word given the wind warnings) than it was a week ago.

Otherwise no surprises - all the developments have been telegraphed for some time. LP over the UK for next week with a brief interlude on Wed, then drying up and HP for next week, moving in for the next week from the SW eventually linking up with Scandinavia. The LP on its southern edge now looks further off than yesterday, over the Med rather than over France, so a good chance of a dry second week for all even if the GEFS op run has occasional rainfall spikes (most GEFS runs don't)

GEFS continues cold for the foreseeable and with less scatter than yesterday; Inverness has an impressive array of snow row figures. Jet stream forecast consistent with all this, running south of the UK for the coming week, then breaking up into meanders.

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 Lots of stratospheric sulphur dioxide kicking about this year thanks to a couple of volcanic eruptions. 🙂

I must have missed the news of those.  Which were the volcanoes that blew off this year?

 

 

And as mentioned by DEW, the strength of the wind in the south on Saturday has popped up without much warning. In my daily scan through the Fax charts just now I spotted that the isobars on the T+36 chart for Saturday 12noon were close together in the south (but almost obscured by two fronts nearly coincident with the isobar lines).

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I must have missed the news of those.  Which were the volcanoes that blew off this year?

 

 

And as mentioned by DEW, the strength of the wind in the south on Saturday has popped up without much warning. In my daily scan through the Fax charts just now I spotted that the isobars on the T+36 chart for Saturday 12noon were close together in the south (but almost obscured by two fronts nearly coincident with the isobar lines).

This was one of them:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/09/sulfur-spewing-russian-volcano-turning-sunsets-purple

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I doubt this put enough sulphate aerosol in the stratosphere to cause significant cooling and hence a stronger stratospheric vortex. This usually needs strong tropical eruptions

 

I must have missed the news of those.  Which were the volcanoes that blew off this year?

 

 

And as mentioned by DEW, the strength of the wind in the south on Saturday has popped up without much warning. In my daily scan through the Fax charts just now I spotted that the isobars on the T+36 chart for Saturday 12noon were close together in the south (but almost obscured by two fronts nearly coincident with the isobar lines).

Indeed, noticed how the EURO4 is being quite bullish about wind strength for tomorrow while GFS is being more reserved, usually it's the other way around with the models when it comes to predicting mean winds in the close range forecast. A true test for the models with Oct '87 still fresh to mind but hopefully it won't be a repeat of that.

And the recent volcanic eruptions are just mere bottom burps compared to Mount St Helens in 1981.

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ICON 6z going for 90mph gusts in the Channel tomorrow.

 

GFS 6z closer to 60mph:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=18&chartname=windvector_gust&chartregion=uk&charttag=Wind%20gust

 

HIRLAM 6z mean wind speeds around 50mph, so I'd expect gusts to be significantly higher:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/hirlam/06_27_ukwind.png?cb=0111201906

 

 

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Week two looks chilly on the GFS06z. Maybe signs towards the end that we start to see a coupling between the strat and trop vortex?

Wouldn't be a surprise of course at this time of year so I'll take any cold/cool weather on offer before then.

https://stratobserve.com/plots/20191031/tseries/anoms/gfs_nh-u60_20191031.png

You can clearly see the disconnect between troposphere and stratosphere by looking at the mean zonal wind anomaly chart above. How long this will go on for who knows. The two volcanic eruptions this year reached the strat. Spaceweather.com for several months have been reporting on this with purple sunsets caused  by volcanic aerosols in the atmosphere across the globe. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2019.png

GPH anomaly chart from cpc stratosphere monitoring site shows the elevated heights throughout the year in the northern hemisphere. This looks set to continue for a while yet.

https://stratobserve.com/plots/20191031/tseries/anoms/gfs_nh-u60_20191031.png

You can clearly see the disconnect between troposphere and stratosphere by looking at the mean zonal wind anomaly chart above. How long this will go on for who knows. The two volcanic eruptions this year reached the strat. Spaceweather.com for several months have been reporting on this with purple sunsets caused  by volcanic aerosols in the atmosphere across the globe. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2019.png

GPH anomaly chart from cpc stratosphere monitoring site shows the elevated heights throughout the year in the northern hemisphere. This looks set to continue for a while yet.

Unfortunately, GFS is showing the Strat/Trop disconnect disappearing by mid-month with a strong PV getting organised (in line with the LRFs).

It would be nice to go back to some of the classic winters and see what was happening to the curse of the cursed PV back then - 1981-82 would be a good case study.

 

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On the other hand a cold and cyclonic November is often considered as a tick next to the cold winter box. Of course we don't know how November will play out and Mr PSW could come back in the blink of an eyelid.

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November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn.

A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling.

I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks.

A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO. 

 

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November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn.

A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling.

I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks.

A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO. 

 

 

 

2 x 1 on the snow row, for Londond in November! Not that I think for one second that's obviously going to happen but still. don't believe I have seen that before, this early. But then I've been told my memory isn't what it used to be 

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November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn.

A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling.

I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks.

A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO. 

 

Do I sense a small amount of reverse psychology in this post.

In all seriousness though, I remember how fed up you were with the 2018/19 offerings.

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