DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
27 October 2019 07:05:55

This morning's GFS ahows the HP for this week not standing up to a push from the Atlantic, one depression moving across around 1 Nov, then a really disturbed (cool and wet) week from the 4th. HP over Scandi not really evident until then end of the run so reserve judgement on that. GEFS ens agree with this and to an unusual extent with each other, though not as cold as synoptics suggest.


GFS puts the cold and wet firmly across S Britain, ECM (from yesterday, and at the end of its run) further north.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
briggsy6
27 October 2019 08:43:56

Channel low maybe?


Location: Uxbridge
The Beast from the East
27 October 2019 08:54:16

Horrendous. I thought we were passed the wettest period. Parallels with the 2013/4 winter


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
27 October 2019 09:37:36

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Officially cold weather watch starts with the GFS 00z tomorrow as the clocks go back. Good luck everyone if you want cold,mild,wet,snow wind or fog. Just remember don’t get upset, or you will be disappointed. Enjoy the input from everyone and don’t be too critical


Hear hear! It's roller-coaster time, chaps.


 


And I'd like to express my thanks to DEW for keeping this thread ticking over with intelligent and concise summaries of the outlook for the past few weeks. My model watching is limited to the MetO Fax Charts and a glance at the GEFS, but it's reassuring that my tentative ideas about what is being shown are backed up by someone more knowledgeable than myself.


The GEFS appears to be in agreement up to the 2nd Nov, after which the prospects are much less clear.


Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl
Brian Gaze
27 October 2019 10:16:16

ECM t+ 10 days showing the potential for something wintry to develop. Could easily be very wet too. GFS / GEFS generally looks pretty unsettled to me with further flooding likely. A few of the runs appear to have the Atlantic going into maximum overdrive later on, but at this stage there is a good deal of interest.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Maunder Minimum
27 October 2019 10:35:54

Could this be coming into play this winter (as it appeared to in 2010-11)?


Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 27 Oct 2019

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 24 days
2019 total: 223 days (74%)


 


New world order coming.
Joe Bloggs
27 October 2019 10:48:22
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png 


Yes all looks very blocky at the moment. 


“Interesting.”


 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

JACKO4EVER
27 October 2019 15:21:00

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


Yes all looks very blocky at the moment. 


“Interesting.”


 



dont worry, the blocky charts will soon evaporate come winter proper only to miraculously re-appear during late spring.


I’m going to enjoy the next few dry days, beyond that it could turn very wet again with localised flooding likely. 

Brian Gaze
27 October 2019 16:09:45

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


 I’m going to enjoy the next few dry days, beyond that it could turn very wet again with localised flooding likely. 



Yes I think that is the weather headline during the second half of the week.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Joe Bloggs
27 October 2019 16:15:21

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


 


dont worry, the blocky charts will soon evaporate come winter proper only to miraculously re-appear during late spring.


I’m going to enjoy the next few dry days, beyond that it could turn very wet again with localised flooding likely. 



Yes blocky charts do tend to appear more frequently at this time of year.


I agree the main concern currently is the amount of rain that looks likely to fall. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Heavy Weather 2013
27 October 2019 16:17:09
Always love this time of year. Charts out earlier and you know winter is knocking on the door.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Phil G
27 October 2019 19:47:03

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Always love this time of year. Charts out earlier and you know winter is knocking on the door.


Same here personally this time of year signals the start of when I take a little more notice of the charts.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 October 2019 06:10:54

After a few dry days at the beginning of this week, an 'ordinary looking' LP moves in to the NW, with rain for everyone. A brief let-up in the south, then both GFS0z and ECM12z (Sun) are agreed on putting a deeper LP firmly in place across Britain for the whole of the week starting 4 Nov, and the jet stream forecast matches this with a strong jet close to S England. GEFS is briefly above average for the rest of this week, then consistently and widely a bit below average for the whole of next week. No real outliers until the end of the run, when one (don't get too excited!) even produces a snow row value of 1 for Brighton, of all places, on the 12th.


The end of the GFS run, around the 12th, and always subject to change, has a NE-ly flow across England with HP to the NW. This could indeed be cold, seeing the way that the blue colours are stacking up across E Europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
ballamar
28 October 2019 07:00:17
ECM interesting run, 10 days time could be a little wintry for some
JACKO4EVER
28 October 2019 19:05:42
I’m surprised there isn’t more comment in here - quite an interesting synoptic spell coming up IMO
idj20
28 October 2019 19:11:17

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

I’m surprised there isn’t more comment in here - quite an interesting synoptic spell coming up IMO



1) Everyone being in the UIA discussing Brexit as that's more topical.
2) Perhaps some of us are already experiencing Autumn fatigue with the recent rains, especially as both ECM and GFS looks depressing with a dartboard-style low slap bang over the UK after the weekend.


Folkestone Harbour. 
doctormog
28 October 2019 19:34:05

Originally Posted by: idj20 




1) Everyone being in the UIA discussing Brexit as that's more topical.
2) Perhaps some of us are already experiencing Autumn fatigue with the recent rains, especially as both ECM and GFS looks depressing with a dartboard-style low slap bang over the UK after the weekend.



That and in terms of winter potential it is a bit far away, early and tenuous. Worth watching though out of casual interest,


LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
28 October 2019 19:45:22

Hmm, Page 42 date Oct. 28th 2019.


The years that end with 08,09 seem to favour our Normal Autumn Weather Sequences.


Will this Locked in Low Pressure pattern happen as forecasted over the UK, I think it is good to check the forecast models at the T72 to T192 range.


What matters is how long it rains- how heavy and how large an area get’s hmm.  Breaks in these wet and windy spells are a feature we know a lot- dry spells with lighter winds.  They are good.


Under the 72-96 hr time frame it is a good idea to see where we are position in the Jetsream and if it settles down we can see some interest that points us at dry and nice weather.  If it gets windy and wet it will be or not and be changed as we get closer to those days- no point saying we are confident in cold and dry condictions returning to the UK.


Page 42.  Nice model output today but it does not appear to show much in the way of cold and wintry weather.


Updated Comment for period 1988 to 2023.

The Above average Winters, Spring Summer and Autumn Season in the UK, affected by El Nino and La Nina, though Cold Spells with proper frosts happen to occur in Winter's they tend to last 3-12 days.  Some 2-3 weeks of Mild SW flows are a regular thing.  UK has mixed weather in all Seasons.  It can be mild damp wet in winter, Cold frosty foggy Snowy Spells  if very lucky, or it can be frosty and cold in March to May that is the worst part, and sometimes Cloudy overcast very chilly even in May and June or even in September to November, less frost and snow.

Springs, Summer's have trended to be well above average some hot heatwaves lasting 3-5 days with greater amounts of sunshine, and all 4 seasons feature lengthy long fetch mild SW flows sometimes with strong winds and heavy rain or settled dry sunny spells. or extremely heavy thundery showers or longer spells of Thundery rain in any Season in the UK.  And 2 year long droughts.


 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 October 2019 06:52:58

Originally Posted by: DEW 


After a few dry days at the beginning of this week, an 'ordinary looking' LP moves in to the NW, with rain for everyone. A brief let-up in the south, then both GFS0z and ECM12z (Sun) are agreed on putting a deeper LP firmly in place across Britain for the whole of the week starting 4 Nov, and the jet stream forecast matches this with a strong jet close to S England. GEFS is briefly above average for the rest of this week, then consistently and widely a bit below average for the whole of next week. No real outliers until the end of the run, when one (don't get too excited!) even produces a snow row value of 1 for Brighton, of all places, on the 12th.


The end of the GFS run, around the 12th, and always subject to change, has a NE-ly flow across England with HP to the NW. This could indeed be cold, seeing the way that the blue colours are stacking up across E Europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 



Little change to this since yesterday, so I've cheated and done a quote. But



  • next week's unsettled spell likely to start sun 3rd rather than Mon 4th

  • end of GFS run develops Scandi high around the 12th with ridge to northern areas and a drier spell, matched by next week's powerful jet stream breaking up and meandering


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Users browsing this topic

    Ads