dont worry, the blocky charts will soon evaporate come winter proper only to miraculously re-appear during late spring.

I’m going to enjoy the next few dry days, beyond that it could turn very wet again with localised flooding likely. 

Yes I think that is the weather headline during the second half of the week.

Yes blocky charts do tend to appear more frequently at this time of year.

I agree the main concern currently is the amount of rain that looks likely to fall. 

Same here personally this time of year signals the start of when I take a little more notice of the charts.

After a few dry days at the beginning of this week, an 'ordinary looking' LP moves in to the NW, with rain for everyone. A brief let-up in the south, then both GFS0z and ECM12z (Sun) are agreed on putting a deeper LP firmly in place across Britain for the whole of the week starting 4 Nov, and the jet stream forecast matches this with a strong jet close to S England. GEFS is briefly above average for the rest of this week, then consistently and widely a bit below average for the whole of next week. No real outliers until the end of the run, when one (don't get too excited!) even produces a snow row value of 1 for Brighton, of all places, on the 12th.

The end of the GFS run, around the 12th, and always subject to change, has a NE-ly flow across England with HP to the NW. This could indeed be cold, seeing the way that the blue colours are stacking up across E Europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 

That and in terms of winter potential it is a bit far away, early and tenuous. Worth watching though out of casual interest,

Hmm, Page 42 date Oct. 28th 2019.

The years that end with 08,09 seem to favour our Normal Autumn Weather Sequences.

Will this Locked in Low Pressure pattern happen as forecasted over the UK, I think it is good to check the forecast models at the T72 to T192 range.

What matters is how long it rains- how heavy and how large an area get’s hmm.  Breaks in these wet and windy spells are a feature we know a lot- dry spells with lighter winds.  They are good.

Under the 72-96 hr time frame it is a good idea to see where we are position in the Jetsream and if it settles down we can see some interest that points us at dry and nice weather.  If it gets windy and wet it will be or not and be changed as we get closer to those days- no point saying we are confident in cold and dry condictions returning to the UK.

Page 42.  Nice model output today but it does not appear to show much in the way of cold and wintry weather.

Little change to this since yesterday, so I've cheated and done a quote. But

• next week's unsettled spell likely to start sun 3rd rather than Mon 4th


• end of GFS run develops Scandi high around the 12th with ridge to northern areas and a drier spell, matched by next week's powerful jet stream breaking up and meandering

I'm hoping to attend a bonfire night celebration on Saturday eve. What is the weather likely to be: wet or dry? 

More likely to be wet and windy than calm and dry I’m afraid.

Looking at the GEFS, the first 10 days of November look pretty wet and unsettled.