Continuing zonal and unsettled - look at Gavin's thread for immediate detail, longer term variable and likely to alter with successive runs. Inverness snow row showing 4s and 5s at the end of the GEFS run.(21st Oct)

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Impressively warm for many parts of Europe let alone central yes! Many places experiencing temps in their low to mid 20's C:

 

 

 

Looking fairly average though for UK and Scandinavia 

 

 

Looking fairly average though for UK and Scandinavia 

Mid-teens at 5am for much of the UK is quite a bit above average, isn't it?

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Mid-teens at 5am for much of the UK is quite a bit above average, isn't it?

No look again.. its for 3pm.

Also the bulk of Scotland is single digits, Wales, western and northern England are 9-12C range. Away from East Anglia its 12-15C.

UK under the course of the jet stream throughout the forecast period, even if it weakens somewhat and starts looping toward the end of next week. So no let-up in the westerlies.

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream

Damp (esp at first in the south), temps a little below average but not cold (see GEFS) - unlike N Russia in a week's time, the first -4C isotherm of the winter appearing over the Urals 

 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

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Looks like more flooding on the way. Very wet possibly for a time.

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UK under the course of the jet stream throughout the forecast period, even if it weakens somewhat and starts looping toward the end of next week. So no let-up in the westerlies.

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/jetstream

Damp (esp at first in the south), temps a little below average but not cold (see GEFS) - unlike N Russia in a week's time, the first -4C isotherm of the winter appearing over the Urals 

 http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

I would rather put up with persistent westerlies in the autumn than in the winter. However, looking at the LRFs, we could be in for an Atlantic dominated winter unfortunately.

 

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No look again.. its for 3pm.

Also the bulk of Scotland is single digits, Wales, western and northern England are 9-12C range. Away from East Anglia its 12-15C.

Yes, you're right - apologies.

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I would rather put up with persistent westerlies in the autumn than in the winter. However, looking at the LRFs, we could be in for an Atlantic dominated winter unfortunately.

 

Maybe, although having just read Gavin P's update from last weekend in which Gavin looked at prospects going into the winter, it may not necessarily be as straightforward as that.

I seem to recall that November 2009 was an extremely wet month in many areas of the country with one LP after another crossing the country and a fair amount of flooding in places, some pretty bad as well. Yet look at how dramatically things changed in December. I'm not saying the same thing will happen this year, but one never knows with our weather.

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Looking very wet in parts on the latest runs, flooding very likely to be featuring in the news. Upstream patterns not looking favourable for any prolonged dry spell either, the general westerly theme or versions thereof looking cemented for some time.

Looks like we could be under the influence of higher pressure later this month. The weather we experience will depend on where it positions... you only have to look at the GFS 18z and compare it to the 00z to see this.

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Looks like we could be under the influence of higher pressure later this month. The weather we experience will depend on where it positions... you only have to look at the GFS 18z and compare it to the 00z to see this.

GEFS showing the rainfest tailing off from about the 21st, but temp forecasts all over the place from then on, presumably tying in with the uncertainty in position of the HP

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an early Beasterly appears into FI on this mornings run, with widespread snow for northern Europe.

 

This is quite striking to see so early on, just to see it in the charts at this time of year is a rare thing.

 

The weather this Autumn has been very different to the past few years......

 

I dont want to cause any hype - but there has been a very early ongoing spell of cold weather for scandinavia recently - which looks to continue through the next few weeks.  maybe its Northwestern Europes turn for a severe winter?

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an early Beasterly appears into FI on this mornings run, with widespread snow for northern Europe.

 

This is quite striking to see so early on, just to see it in the charts at this time of year is a rare thing.

 

The weather this Autumn has been very different to the past few years......

 

I dont want to cause any hype - but there has been a very early ongoing spell of cold weather for scandinavia recently - which looks to continue through the next few weeks.  maybe its Northwestern Europes turn for a severe winter?

I can’t remember the last time North West Europe, as a whole, had a severe winter. 

 

I can’t remember the last time North West Europe, as a whole, had a severe winter. 

 

Agreed... wintry spells.. yes.

 

But not winter as a whole.

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GFS 6z downplaying yesterday's hopes of a settled spell after the 21st though ECM keeping them alive. GEFS runs also show more rain aftr=er the 21st than they did yesterday, though not as much as in the coming week; and after a cool week to come, again there is a change to above average temps for the majority of runs.

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Looks like we are stuck in a rut like back in June, High pressure out to the Western Atlantic and also over Central , Eastern Europe. Through the middle just low pressure after low pressure. Central Europe having a true Indian Summer with temperatures into the 20's Celsius, don't know what it will take to shift this pattern.

12z GEFS control run goes for a last hurrah plume in its latter stages.  Wouldn't surprise me if this came to pass.

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 GFS has now come out quite bullish about HP being established over the UK from about the 22nd onwards. It's a fairly small HP cell, so its position is critical, and it wanders around a bit, first giving warm SEly (see previous post) and later cool NWly. GEFS ens show (mostly) a general uptick in temps for that period, along with a general decrease in rainfall, though you can find occasional local examples with exceptions to rainfall totals.

for ECM, this is the very end of its run, and it's less positive with HP flatlining to the south of the UK

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As yesterday but ECM now agreeing on HP. But both main models show LP approaching closer to the west around 23rd before backing off. Good news -stronger southerly winds and warmer; bad news - fronts likely to be brushing the west coast, indicated by GEFS rainfall runs for west coast locations.

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