My bus driver told me that it's going to be the worst winter ever on record with months of blizzards and snow.

It turns out he drives the Express bus.

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Obviously we all talk of positives each year & theres never a cast iron formula for our little patch- however optimism is very very high this year.

The NAO / AO have been negative since April, We have a decending EQBO, The Arctic ice should support further high level blocking & also the sun is heading towards 2009 levels of spotlessness.

Also ( it is very very early ) the stratospheric vortex is very very weak- its breaking records daily, for instance Sunday 18/08 the bandwidth of records is 2007 -3.9 M/S & 2009 -0.9 M/S.

Todays figure is -5.8M/S another date record & significantly outside the tolerance, of course as mentioned very very early however the fact we are record breaking negative & the trajectory is one of record negative already starts to eliminate record +AO Decembers ( but Will monitor for the next 7-8 weeks )

Best
S

Winter?

Summer's not started yet!!

Well, that was one heck of a heatwave for spring!

 

The solar minimum has always been taken as a good general pointer towards a colder winter but it’s just one factor.  The undeniable fact is that the world is warming and Arctic ice disappearing, so cold air masses from the north generally won’t be as potent (as Richard noted).

My preference would be a cold snowy Xmas lasting into January and then an early spring. 

 

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My bus driver told me that it's going to be the worst winter ever on record with months of blizzards and snow.

It turns out he drives the Express bus.

 

 brlliant

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Obviously we all talk of positives each year & theres never a cast iron formula for our little patch- however optimism is very very high this year.

The NAO / AO have been negative since April, We have a decending EQBO, The Arctic ice should support further high level blocking & also the sun is heading towards 2009 levels of spotlessness.

Also ( it is very very early ) the stratospheric vortex is very very weak- its breaking records daily, for instance Sunday 18/08 the bandwidth of records is 2007 -3.9 M/S & 2009 -0.9 M/S.

Todays figure is -5.8M/S another date record & significantly outside the tolerance, of course as mentioned very very early however the fact we are record breaking negative & the trajectory is one of record negative already starts to eliminate record +AO Decembers ( but Will monitor for the next 7-8 weeks )

Best
S

Steve, your optimism is always very high at this time of year and that's great to see. 

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Lol it usually starts to wain in Late Jan..

However - I wouldn't actually say we had a decent chance if there wasn't any evidence-

The strat jet is the main one for me - record breaking negative - but it is only Aug...

 

Steve, your optimism is always very high at this time of year and that's great to see. 

 

Tends to be the case most years then it goes pete tong 

Take last year just 11-days before winter Steve posted this

"UK wise - The overall theme is a very high probability of a below average winter with the sub 3c breeched twice - ( maybe 3 times )

2018/19 Global extremes of weather & for the UK higher probabilities of exceptional weather which for once is more in favour of exceptional cold instead of warmth.."

CET wise we had

December 5.8c 

Jan 3.7c

Feb 6.0c

Winter mean 5.2c 1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

 

 

 

Tends to be the case most years then it goes pete tong 

Take last year just 11-days before winter Steve posted this

"UK wise - The overall theme is a very high probability of a below average winter with the sub 3c breeched twice - ( maybe 3 times )

2018/19 Global extremes of weather & for the UK higher probabilities of exceptional weather which for once is more in favour of exceptional cold instead of warmth.."

CET wise we had

December 5.8c 

Jan 3.7c

Feb 6.0c

Winter mean 5.2c 1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

 

 

 

Yep it didn't work out - as the UK sat on the periphery of the cold especially in Jan - ( post a record breaking stratospheric warming ) 

The whole premise of the forecast was that the UK was influenced by this. Also note the words 'higher probability doesnt = Its 100% going to happen.

The fact that the Strat warming occured did significantly increase the chances of it being colder.

The bottom line here is 'probability' - 

The probability of the mid lattitudes this winter experiencing extreme weather at 'both' ends of the scale is very high. Plotting the exact locations of heat V cold is the difficult job- Jan 19 500 Anomalies was just to far east for the UK-  so from an anomaly point of view I was quite happy- The UK being a tiny plot on the map makes us always the end of the line.

Anyway this year is another different beast but shares the 'probability' of extremes... 

Just to highlight this Summers extremes that aren't always in the public eye

• Record period of consecutive -NAO days 


• Record breaking high thickness recorded over Greenland


• Record breaking warmth in the lower stratosphere all summer


• Record breaking negative zonal wind days in the strat to date 


• Record Northern location for Electrical storms in the arctic 

These are all related to climate change over the arctic & lower strat - so it makes it unprecedented times ...

Based on this the probability of this winter being 'zonal' is greatly reduced- that actually means extremes of warmth & possible cold is the form horse.

Just to add heres the whole post from pre winter forecasting a SSW late December which arrived in Jan - sadly the influence wasnt as expected

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/90875-winter-viewpoint-2018-19-nh-patterns/#comments

Another downside about the coming winter is the current ongoing lack of Atlantic Hurricanes during this year so far. Gavin P. has always said in his videos that if we have an active Atlantic hurricane season, that can result in a lot of northern blocking during the following winter due to the additional warm air which is being transported from the tropics towards the Arctic as a result. That in turn, then acts as a factor which can increase our chances of a cold winter.

The converse of that of course, is to say that a quiet Atlantic hurricane is a factor which is more likely to result in a milder winter as a lack of these hurricanes means that warm air isn't being transported towards the Arctic as much which therefore reduces the chances of northern blocking.

This means that if we want to be maximising our chances of a cold winter, then we really need to start seeing the Atlantic Hurricane pick up and become more active fairly soon in my books.

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If we're being honest all we can really say is: a) it will come and it will go b) it will almost certainly fall short of the expectations and predictions of snow rampers 

c) There will be massive fluctuations of activity in the MOD thread.

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Yep it didn't work out - as the UK sat on the periphery of the cold especially in Jan - 

Honest post and if the periphery answer is as honest then it would IMO be a forecast that was worthy of applause. Acceptable geographical error when talking about risk, probability etc- the general idea about v cold conditions nearby was there.

I note Belgium's temperatures were mild. Strasbourg in E France had 5.0, 2.1 and 5.1 as its 3 winter-month means. Frankfurt's 4.8, 2.2 and 4.5 were all above normal.

But to the NE, Oslo's mean temperatures of -3.1 and -5.3 in December and January were below normal. February was slightly warmer than average. 

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More garden paths, mirages and chasing rainbows. Infact I intend to take a 4 month break from TWO at the end of October, returning in early March when eternal autumn starts to resemble spring again.

You took the words right out of my mind.

My first thought was "Winter? What's that?".

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May as well rename this the misery thread already.

g

 

Honest post and if the periphery answer is as honest then it would IMO be a forecast that was worthy of applause. Acceptable geographical error when talking about risk, probability etc- the general idea about v cold conditions nearby was there.

I note Belgium's temperatures were mild. Strasbourg in E France had 5.0, 2.1 and 5.1 as its 3 winter-month means. Frankfurt's 4.8, 2.2 and 4.5 were all above normal.

But to the NE, Oslo's mean temperatures of -3.1 and -5.3 in December and January were below normal. February was slightly warmer than average. 

Jan was the key month.

https://imgshare.io/images/2019/08/18/B88FD927-2E21-4B54-A3ED-3651C638D5D7.jpg

also again reading the forecast it was built up via strat warming & 500MB anomalies. 

As Jan shows it was a very tantalisingly close pattern.

 

 

May as well rename this the misery thread already.

It's not about being miserable, it's about being realistic where the last time I got to see an actual proper snow cover at my low laying location was in March 2013. Since then it's been chasing ghosts and thus I have kept expectations low.

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It's not about being miserable, it's about being realistic where the last time I got to see an actual proper snow cover at my low laying location was in March 2013. Since then it's been chasing ghosts and thus I have kept expectations low.

Did you have no March 2018 snow Ian? I should have thought you would be in the firing line then?

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Did you have no March 2018 snow Ian? I should have thought you would be in the firing line then?

Nope, it all bypassed my location and it wasn't even an "ice day" with temps being above freezing by evening. We did end up with a rare coastal freezing rain event, but the snow itself on that morning was nothing more than a sugar coating dusting. In fact, I swore I've been seeing the local druggies being on all fours trying to snort it up thinking it was cocaine.

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I’m in holiday for 2 weeks at the start of February in Cambodia. 

You can guarantee the UK will be under 6 foot snow drifts then at least. 

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I’m in holiday for 2 weeks at the start of February in Cambodia. 

You can guarantee the UK will be under 6 foot snow drifts then at least. 

Funny place to go if you’re looking for snow Joe. 

Take Moomin with you and it will be a guaranteed cold snap in the UK.

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It's not about being miserable, it's about being realistic where the last time I got to see an actual proper snow cover at my low laying location was in March 2013. Since then it's been chasing ghosts and thus I have kept expectations low.

 

I get that but by just saying each year nothing interesting is going to happen almost defeats the object of enjoying discussion - the same people were saying the same thing in 2009 & look what happened... 

I think the weather over the last decade but also now increasingly over the last 2-3 years has become so adverse to the norm with more & more focus on extremes then its only a matter of time that the UK hits the jackpot - of course it was only a matter of time anyway but those odds are greatly reduced based on the increased incidence of blocked flows...

Anyway lets see what happens with the Stratospheric jet to the midpoint of Sept where the bandwidth opens out a lot more...