Tends to be the case most years then it goes pete tong
Take last year just 11-days before winter Steve posted this
"UK wise - The overall theme is a very high probability of a below average winter with the sub 3c breeched twice - ( maybe 3 times )
2018/19 Global extremes of weather & for the UK higher probabilities of exceptional weather which for once is more in favour of exceptional cold instead of warmth.."
CET wise we had
December 5.8c
Jan 3.7c
Feb 6.0c
Winter mean 5.2c 1.4c above the 81 to 10 average
Yep it didn't work out - as the UK sat on the periphery of the cold especially in Jan - ( post a record breaking stratospheric warming )
The whole premise of the forecast was that the UK was influenced by this. Also note the words 'higher probability doesnt = Its 100% going to happen.
The fact that the Strat warming occured did significantly increase the chances of it being colder.
The bottom line here is 'probability' -
The probability of the mid lattitudes this winter experiencing extreme weather at 'both' ends of the scale is very high. Plotting the exact locations of heat V cold is the difficult job- Jan 19 500 Anomalies was just to far east for the UK- so from an anomaly point of view I was quite happy- The UK being a tiny plot on the map makes us always the end of the line.
Anyway this year is another different beast but shares the 'probability' of extremes...
Just to highlight this Summers extremes that aren't always in the public eye
- Record period of consecutive -NAO days
- Record breaking high thickness recorded over Greenland
- Record breaking warmth in the lower stratosphere all summer
- Record breaking negative zonal wind days in the strat to date
- Record Northern location for Electrical storms in the arctic
These are all related to climate change over the arctic & lower strat - so it makes it unprecedented times ...
Based on this the probability of this winter being 'zonal' is greatly reduced- that actually means extremes of warmth & possible cold is the form horse.
Just to add heres the whole post from pre winter forecasting a SSW late December which arrived in Jan - sadly the influence wasnt as expected
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/90875-winter-viewpoint-2018-19-nh-patterns/#comments
Edited by user
18 August 2019 10:23:32
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