Could be interesting given that it is likely to be the solar minimum winter with solar cycle 25 starting fairly soon after that (I have read that a very small handful of the tiny amount of sunspots which have occurred most recently, are likely to be from that new solar cycle 25 rather than the old solar cycle which we are now leaving, and which is solar cycle 24). If that doesn't favour a cold winter this time, then I think that it almost certainly will by the time that we get to the following winter of 2020/21.
I also think that with a weak La Nina signature becoming increasingly visible in the eastern half of the Equatorial Pacific in particular, that could also favour a cold winter here. Furthermore, it is interesting as well that Gavin P. in his annual NAO forecast has gone for a slightly negative NAO during the coming winter. We have however, had a negative NAO throughout this summer which has resulted in the Azores High being posted missing for much of the time, and which is probably at least partly responsible as a result of that for the wet summer which we have had in this part of the world (although it has still been warm at times to the point where we even had our hottest day on record during July) due to low pressure forming underneath that northern blocking and sitting over the UK for much of the time.
I would imagine that it is only a matter of time before that goes positive again with a strengthening Azores High being the result of that. However, if Gavin P.'s forecast of a slightly negative NAO comes off, that will favour a cold winter here, especially if the NAO ends up being more negative than expected at that time.
A lot will of course, depend on the transition from the current westerly QBO to an easterly QBO and if that happens fairly quickly, that could favour a colder winter especially later on. My main concern though is those warm SSTs over the NE Pacific which has ruined so many recent winters in this part of the world and I think that this is something which needs to go away if we are have any chance of getting a cold winter this winter.
Apart from that though, it is still very early days as regards to what the coming winter has in store, especially since that is also likely to depend quite a lot on other factors which won't actually come into play until further down the line, such as the onset of any Siberian/Scandinavian snow cover during the coming autumn.
Edited by user
16 August 2019 09:54:15
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Reason: Not specified
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.