BBC monthly outlook
Wetter and breezier than usual for late summer
Wednesday 7 August – Sunday 11 August
Turning windy and very wet for a time
On Wednesday, much of England and Wales will have sunny intervals together with some well-scattered showers. Scotland and Northern Ireland will have more frequent showers and these are likely to be heavy and thundery in places, giving some locally high rainfall totals.
On Thursday, there will be some bright or sunny spells for most but with a few further showers in places, these still locally heavy in northern Scotland. On Thursday night, outbreaks of heavy, thundery rain are likely to sweep in from the south-west, reaching all but northern Scotland by the end of the night.
Friday will see heavy, thundery rain continuing to spread north-eastwards over the UK, followed by a mixture of sunshine and showers from the south. Some of these showers are likely to be heavy and thundery over western and northern areas.
The unsettled weather then looks like persisting into the start of this weekend. A deep area of low pressure crossing the northern UK is likely to bring strong west to south-westerly winds over parts of England and Wales with gusts over 50mph in places, enough to bring some tree branches down. There should also be sunny spells but with a scattering of blustery showers. Less windy for Scotland and Northern Ireland but with heavy showers or longer spells of rain there. Sunday should then see an improvement in the weather with heavy rain and strong winds easing.
Monday 12 August – Sunday 18 August
Another unsettled week; wet and windy at times
Another unsettled week for many next week due to further low pressure areas approaching the UK from the Atlantic. Further showers or longer outbreaks of rain will spread from west to east across the country through the week, accompanied by brisk winds at times. Rainfall amounts are likely to be above normal for this time of year in most areas with wettest conditions over western and northern areas of the UK, where localised flooding is possible.
However, we will see occasional drier and sunnier interludes as well, perhaps with the best of those for south-eastern and eastern fringes of England and the far-north of Scotland. Despite the unsettled weather, temperatures should not be far from the seasonal average; perhaps a little below average in Scotland.
Monday 19 August – Sunday 1 September
Mostly unsettled but drier later in the south
Latest indications point towards unsettled conditions persisting for a while with further showers and bands of rain spreading from the west at times. Again, western and northern areas of the UK are likely to be wettest. The rain will continue to be accompanied by brisk winds at times.
However, there are still signs that high pressure should expand from southern Europe, bringing drier and less breezy conditions to the southern half of the UK by the end of this month. Further north, the frequency of rain should decrease, allowing for some drier and brighter periods of weather there too. Temperatures mostly near to the seasonal average but feeling warmer in the south as the weather becomes more settled.
Overall, August still looks like being wetter and breezier than usual. We will take another look at the prospects for some drier and warmer weather at the end of this month.