I've never, ever understood why people fail to look at the ensemble guidance, be it winter or summer.
As I've posted a bit recently, down here at least the ECM ensembles have been rock-solid in supporting a warm spell, with a low chance of it turning hot (i.e. 28C for London) - 10% to 20% chance of that, as has been the case for days.
The 850 ensembles similarly show a very low chance of 20C 850s affecting us, regardless of what op runs are showing.
Here, again, is the link to the ECM ensembles. I know I posted this link endlessly during the winter, but it bears repeating. Hell, we waited well over a decade to get this data, make the most of it while it's still free!
https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature
(EDIT: Not to say we won't see 28C or above, of course, just that it's not the favoured option in the ensembles. It's similar to rolling a die and hoping for a 6.)
Edited by user
16 July 2019 17:43:19
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