And here's the other side.

 

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It’s brighter here since my last post and the temp slightly higher at 14c. The clouds are visibly patchy but I can’t yet see the outline of the sun through them.

I'm cheering your location on Caz!

Well okay, I'm cheering the whole CET region on if I'm honest  .

 

Judging by the cloud patterns on satellite imagery, daresay the boundary of the 'heat dome' aloft is some 50 miles north of what was modelled for this time. 

 

Agreed Quantum, a record for the 850 hPa level. I wonder how many of the general public realise that the North Sea is now saving them from very unhealthy levels of heat?

Next week, it does look like some unusually low 850s could make their way down near or over Scotland (talk about a contrast!), depending on how quickly high pressure builds across from the west, due to it being a very amplified ridge. The Arctic is the warmest on record for June and in response, the planetary waves are becoming unusually large in the equator-pole directions. 

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Sunny spells for past hour or so now down here and temps rising across the region with most now between 23-24C. 

I expect easily high 20's somewhere along or near the Solent stretch today.. Hurn, Gosport, Thorney, or perhaps a tad inland like Otterbourne. 

Clearer skies developing more generally across the SE now, which improves the chances of high 20s (needs a long fetch of sun-heated ground for the NE breeze to be sufficiently modified).

After yesterday's disappointment, today's having a good go at making up for it .

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I'm cheering your location on Caz!

Well okay, I'm cheering the whole CET region on if I'm honest  .

 

Judging by the cloud patterns on satellite imagery, daresay the boundary of the 'heat dome' aloft is some 50 miles north of what was modelled for this time. 

 

Agreed Quantum, a record for the 850 hPa level. I wonder how many of the general public realise that the North Sea is now saving them from very unhealthy levels of heat?

Next week, it does look like some unusually low 850s could make their way down near or over Scotland (talk about a contrast!), depending on how quickly high pressure builds across from the west, due to it being a very amplified ridge. The Arctic is the warmest on record for June and in response, the planetary waves are becoming unusually large in the equator-pole directions. 

Thanks SC.

Do you know the highest 850hpa temp the UK got to prior to this event?

Do you know the lowest ever July 850hpa temp for the UK?

 

I have done little research on the former but on the later I've never seen anything below -3C.

 

Also thickness records potentially on the cards too. As low as 532dm and as high as 580dm.

 

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Arpege has 29c in the Dorset area Friday and 32c to 34c quite widely on Saturday.  

 

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Thanks SC.

Do you know the highest 850hpa temp the UK got to prior to this event?

Do you know the lowest ever July 850hpa temp for the UK?

 

I have done little research on the former but on the later I've never seen anything below -3C.

 

 

I'm pretty sure 22c is the record 850 temp August 2003.

 

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I'm pretty sure 22c is the record 850 temp August 2003.

 

That one seems like a good candidate although the fact we are likely to see 2C higher than that easily and 4C higher than that possibly in a synopsis where temperatures in the affected area are in the low twenties I wouldn't be suprised if the actual record is alot higher than that.

 

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Also worth noting that the ARPEGE ensembles doesn't preclude the possibility of 28C being achived in Jersey.

 

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Also worth noting that the ARPEGE ensembles doesn't preclude the possibility of 28C being achived in Jersey.

 

And 30C in France. Incredible, and must be a record.

Things really hitting up know across the Hexagon. 36C widely. Will 40 be reached today? If it is, then I think the all time record is possible tomorrow (in the Loire) or Friday (Provence).

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One thing to note is that GFS 2m max temps are proving more accurate for continental Europe than the UK. In fact they're pretty much spot on at the moment I think.

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22*C from Aug 2003 is the highest I'm aware of, I thought there might have been a briefly higher spike in 1990 but didn't find one.

For anyone with time to spare, it might be worth checking out July 1983 as that was an exceptionally hot month but I'm not sure how much it was locally driven versus plume-driven.

Fact is, such a huge and direct draw of hot air from Africa is extremely rare, let alone with temps in the source region unusually high at the time of export, and with all this happening in June.

Honestly, I think this is the most prominently 'climate change enabled' event Europe has seen to date. Arctic sea ice loss and amplified warming not is only slowing the jet stream but allowing the seasonal heat build to begin sooner, aligning peak heat with the longest days and strongest sun more than we used to see.

Couple that with higher overall available heat and this seemingly rule-breaking European heatwave starts to make a horrible sort of sense.

 

Lowest 850s in July, sorry I've little clue at this time! 

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22*C from Aug 2003 is the highest I'm aware of, I thought there might have been a briefly higher spike in 1990 but didn't find one.

For anyone with time to spare, it might be worth checking out July 1983 as that was an exceptionally hot month but I'm not sure how much it was locally driven versus plume-driven.

Fact is, such a huge and direct draw of hot air from Africa is extremely rare, let alone with temps in the source region unusually high at the time of export, and with all this happening in June.

Honestly, I think this is the most prominently 'climate change enabled' event Europe has seen to date. Arctic sea ice loss and amplified warming not is only slowing the jet stream but allowing the seasonal heat build to begin sooner, aligning peak heat with the longest days and strongest sun more than we used to see.

Couple that with higher overall available heat and this seemingly rule-breaking European heatwave starts to make a horrible sort of sense.

 

Lowest 850s in July, sorry I've little clue at this time! 

Indeed I haven't found anything that even gets close to the 850s we will see tommorow.

Although this bubble of 20C in July 1983 might well be a record for Ireland!

 

Really quite convinced that both the 24-26C in the SW tommorow/Friday is the highest 850hpa temp on record for the UK but will do a more detailed look through the analysis charts. Also if the -5C for Shetland verifies I'm sure that's a record too. In my searches for July snow its hard enough to even find 0C getting to the UK in July. I suspect -5C may have happened once or twice in August but never July.

 

 

 

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Has anyone checked June or July 1947? No idea what the synoptic set up was.

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Only in Germany - how one man was attempting to keep cool in Brandenburg

 

Weil wir #sprachlos sind 😅: Wie würden Sie dieses Bild betiteln?

Als kleine Inspirationshilfe - ein #Zitat des Herren: „Et is halt warm, wa?“

Und jetzt Sie!#Hitze #safetyfirst #LebenAmLimit pic.twitter.com/BiM27ydDEy

— Polizei Brandenburg (@PolizeiBB) June 26, 2019

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Sunny spells for past hour or so now down here and temps rising across the region with most now between 23-24C. 

I expect easily high 20's somewhere along or near the Solent stretch today.. Hurn, Gosport, Thorney, or perhaps a tad inland like Otterbourne. 

Still only 19C in London (eg St James's Park). At the end of last week my phone was showing 34C for London today!

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Has anyone checked June or July 1947? No idea what the synoptic set up was.

Just checked the entire summer. Closest we got was briefly just beyond 20C on the south coast at the end of July. 22C isotherm was in the south of France though.

So still nowhere near.

 

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Where are you?

near Borges on business, back and forth to Paris. news sadly reporting three deaths from heat stroke on the beaches- it really is unbelievable 

Arpege has 29c in the Dorset area Friday and 32c to 34c quite widely on Saturday.  

 

Yes, Arpege is massively hotter than GFS at the surface. It's going for 43C+ over a wide area of northern France, and 34C+ in several parts of southern England. GFS at the same time has maxima of 28C in London and 34C in northern France.

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Now 39C in Clermont Ferrand and a number of 38s. 39C in Bilbao too - i remember it getting 43C in Aug 2003 with a föhn.

Somewhere may squeeze a 40C today.

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I really cannot get my head around this setup. Very unusual indeed. I don't get why we're getting so much modification when an Easterly in April can deliver low 20's here due to being to the West of the Pennines.

Here we are in June, a very favourable setup and the temperature is only 16.3C despite occasional bright spells. Really does feel cold in the keen NE wind. Probably warmer on Kinder Scout summit than here.

Forecast temps for Saturday have been trending upwards though. Chance of 30C here. I reckon somewhere like Blackpool airport may crack 32C.

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