Thanks as always for your captivating stat-dives GW
I see I might do pretty well for the CET error this month, but to be honest that'll be due to a less warm than anticipated final third cancelling out a less cool than indicated (by modelling and teleconnections) middle-third, so it seems it was simply my turn to net a bit of luck.
Just plugged in the GFS 12z numbers for the first half of May out of interest.
A sharp downward dive early on due to the Arctic incursion, with a couple of nights reaching freezing or close to it very widely, and May (the) 4th (be with you) struggling to make double digits despite plenty of sun (suspicious much...?!), bottoming the CET out at just 7.6*C as of 5th.
Then a steady climb as some near-average temperatures occur, as part of a cyclonic spell of weather. CET reaches the high 8s by 10th.
Then, some warmer than average conditions arrive from the southeast, and the CET is approaching the mid-10s as of 14th. A respectable recovery from that unusually chilly start.
So uh... no clear indications for an overall temp anomaly for May's first half. How helpful .
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