I dislike the ECM more with every operational run it puts out. Not only has it robbed the Midlands of Thursday's snow, but by next Tuesday at t+168, it has the whole of the UK in mild SW winds.

All power to the GFS para.

ECM 12z only shows the milder weather lasting for a time; this looks potentially interesting for later on:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

"potentially interesting for later on"

...... has got to be the phase of this (so called) "winter" 

As Brian wrote a few days ago, this has been the best virtual winter ever.

For example, I have several centimetres of virtual snow from today and I was going to be buried in inches of virtual snow on Thursday, so I am virtually very happy. Pity that reality sucks. Perhaps this is what virtual reality sex is like - massive anticipation but zero delivery.

Well, winter has finally arrived here for sure.

I have absolutely no doubt that it will snow in April and probably give us a white Easter.

UKMO extended again looking less cold with some precipitation moving in from the west

If it does it will be the first time ever that it has snowed on or around my birthday.. It's usually warm by then & this year my birthday is Easter Sunday!

On Topic it still looks like a rather cold week here from the model output. I'm still waiting patiently for the rain/sleet to arrive.

That is most unlikely given Easter is around the 20th April this year

Martin

Snow is southern areas in late April is probably more unusual that it occuring in northern parts at that point in the spring. The latest I can recollect seeing snow in my neck of the woods was in mid-May 1995 (12th May to be exact). That was only a week after we had had temps close to the mid-20s celsius here for a few days!

Saved me the post Martin, thank-you. Much to be resolved in the T+144 to T+168 timescale.

One of my earliest childhood memories is of a heavy settling snowfall in late April, I think it was 1981, when I would have been four years old.

Edit: yes, 25 April 1981 I believe.

25th Apr., south and south east England. Wiltshire-Kent, 6-18in [1950]

After a largely snowless winter, too

https://durhamweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/bonacina.html 

As I've mentioned before, it's odd how often recently the ECM op has been far milder than the ensemble mean.

Again it will be interesting to see what the 18z GFS op shows at around day 5/6. More hints? We will find out soon.

Yes the 12z GFS para run is very interesting and shows a classic battle line over the UK with the Atlantic trying to push in from the west but failing repeatedly.

For me next Monday is key. After the cold and messy setup this week, the GFS has for several days been suggesting that a very active front would push a band of heavy rain across the country next Monday, introducing somewhat milder weather for next week. That is still an option but the para run tonight shows what the alternative would be, which is a continuation of cold weather with the UK being in the middle of that battleground.

Here is 12z on Sunday with a very active front moving in

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019012912/120-574PUK.GIF?29-12

By 6z on Monday the front has pretty much died across western areas

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019012912/138-574PUK.GIF?29-12

Here comes the next one on Tuesday

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019012912/156-574PUK.GIF?29-12

It makes a little more progress and is generally rain but still fails to make it to eastern areas before dying out

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019012912/174-574PUK.GIF?29-12

Round 3 on Wednesday evening - surely this one will have enough oomph to make it across to the North Sea?

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019012912/198-574PUK.GIF?29-12

Nope - it stalls over western areas and starts turning to snow

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019012912/216-574PUK.GIF?29-12

Meanwhile very cold air with snow showers starts pushing in from the east.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019012912/234-574PUK.GIF?29-12

Of course details will change from run to run but don't write off the cold weather at this stage. There are bound to be milder interludes from time to time and plenty of twists and turns to come. The models continue to struggle and the medium term pattern is far from clear.

I think there is still a lot to be decided re. next week.

I remember that well rob as i said its most unusual but can happen.

I cannot remember deep snow later than in april 1981 it was a rare occurance indeed