Happy birthday to us! Unfortunately we share the same birthday as Hitler!

Ahaa

You know that trivia too... my wife groans everytime i bring it up

You poor souls!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

ECM 850s look quite toasty at 168. 

not deep snow, but can remember having snow in May

My oddest one (in England) was hiking with group in Lake District, start of September 1997 (PRincess Diana had just died) and a squall  came up, and it snowed, and settled, but melted about 15 minutes later.  Only time I have seen snow in the summer months in England (although being on top of a hill helped)

Thursday night's event is the closest Ive seen to a classic Channel low for some time, and should deliver a decent but temporary depth of snow to southern counties. But 

• there's no strong connection to the east, so there's no really cold air on its northern flank. Thus the snow will probably be wet and not accumulate much at low levels
• there's support for milder air to work in from the south, so the snow is quite likely to turn to rain as it clears and wash some of the fall away

So, more snow than we've seen in this part of Sussex than for some years but not cold enough for a memorable event

The op and parallel runs both show heights rising over Scandinavia but never in the right place to bring cold air our way.

Let's hope the mild blip is pumping up the heat and heights to the North East for later on then!

ecm op going off on one again.

This morning's output looks like another massive fail for long range forecasting to go along with the infamous "BBQ summer".

Very depressed - even tomorrow's snow keeps being shifting south and will probably end up with only Portsmouth seeing a few flakes and all the fun being across the Channel.

The UK snow shield is in full cry.

Good post David. Sums up my thoughts about this potential entirely

A brief warm-up / regroup next week may not be a bad thing.

We are in the middle of a very interesting week of weather.

I always see winter as fundamentally Jan and Feb. Of course wintry weather can occur in Nov / Dec (but tempered by warmer seas / less cold air masses) and in Mar/Apr (tempered by longer days and strengthening sun). But Jan + Feb the classic winter months. On this basis we are only halfway through winter. Given the difficulties that NWP seems to have had in the medium term this year, there are a whole variety of options on the table for February. Ridiculous to write-off next week, let alone the whole of Feb!

Yeah thought that when I flicked through the models too. Milder push more pronounced on GFS ens and ECM op, although GFS ens still have a blocked deep FI signal few.

Near term is cold/chilly with more snow for some and some low overnight temps.

Be interesting so see if the milder push verifies and how lo g it lasts.

We don't even have the consolation of it being a leap year when winter is one day longer.  

Though the operational is mild at T+340, it does suggest the possibility of very cold air arriving from the east a few days later. So it's not without interest.

Winter isn’t finished yet I’m sure.

Post of the thread, IMO.

Even though the output this morning indicated at least a temporary return to milder conditions next week, what I do not see in any suggestion of the atlantic taking over control of our weather in a big way. It almost seems as though the UK will be in a kind of no-mans land at times with neither LP nor HP having full control of things next week. As noted by others, pressure does appear to be trying to rise to the E/NE later in the ECM and GFS op runs also.

Interesting to note that the ECM 00z is, as had happened quite a lot recently I believe, rather milder than the mean. What I have also noted is that FI across many models seems to have been particularly unreliable this winter. Whether or not that has been something to do with the SSW that began just before Christmas, I don't know. However, much as there are now some people writing off February, there were some in the early days of this month who were saying similar things about this month. I know we have not had a classic deep freeze this month, but it has been generally colder over the last fortnight compared to previously, for quite a few areas at least.

Agreed, Jacko.

What I find a bit odd is why Kieren is so sure at this time that February will be a write-off when he himself has admitted that his prediction that January would deliver a major freeze hasn't come to pass. As others have said, the models seem to have had a particularly difficult time this winter when it comes to medium-long range forecasting; whether or not it has been something to do with the recent SSW, I don't know. The main theme that I have noted in recent days and weeks is that even at relatively close range, there has been a notable lack of cross-model agreement and run-to-run consistency. It wasn't until last weekend that developments during this week became more certain, for example.

If we can't be completely sure of what happens only a few days ahead, then how anyone can be certain about what happens a few weeks from now, I have no idea.