The Weather Outlook

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moomin75
29 January 2019 16:23:44

What the FI section of the GFS 00z & 06z runs this morning indicates to me is that those who have been dismissing chances of cold or very cold weather for later in February might, just might have been doing so a little prematurely.

There was considerable uncertainty for a while wrt this week's weather and I think it was suggested at one stage that the latter part of this week would turn milder, which now doesn't look like happening. IMO all solutions for the period beginning early next week are open to question and subject to change, even at short notice.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Oh it's LATER in February now is it? Here I was thinking it was later in December, then early January, then mid-late January, then early February? At this rate we will get our cold spell in July. 😂😂😂 Sorry David but a bit of gallows humour is needed now in this wretched winter. 😊

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

backtobasics
29 January 2019 16:30:22
For the love of God ! this is the Model Output Discussion Thread, for those who want to witter on endlessly about the ability of the Met Office to see into the future please do it in the correct thread. Thanks
David M Porter
29 January 2019 16:34:15

Looks as though that LP to the north-west of the UK is struggling a bit to make inroads to the UK next week according to the GFS 12z thus far.

From what I can see, there is still a bit of doubt about what happens next week, never mind further into February.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

ballamar
29 January 2019 16:38:29

Looks as though that LP to the north-west of the UK is struggling a bit to make inroads to the UK next week according to the GFS 12z thus far.

From what I can see, there is still a bit of doubt about what happens next week, never mind further into February.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

 

GFS definitely changing run by run could be showing an easterly this time tomorrow!! No consensus yet 

Arbroath 1320
29 January 2019 16:39:34

Should I go to the media thread to discuss the model output?

I will still be watching the day 6 period on the GFS for any further changes.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes the 6 day period is the crucial point. A quick look at the GFS and UKMO 12z are still consistent in keeping us in a no man's land between the Atlantic trough and High pressure to the NE. The Azores ridge is again spoiling the show and preventing any Atlantic energy going South.

Kenmore, Highland Perthshire, GGTTH
JACKO4EVER
29 January 2019 16:40:41
a quick look reveals it staying cold into the weekend and with some very severe frosts tonight where skies clear and tomorrow night- perhaps the coldest of the winter?

Thereafter hints of it turning milder next week though for how long is anyone’s guess.

David M Porter
29 January 2019 16:50:19

Another GFS op run, and another solution for next week and beyond is shown. Make of that what you will, folks.

I honestly don't think that developments for next week and after that are yet settled one way or the other. As has been noted by Michael and by Arbroath 1320, day 6 seems to be the crucial timeframe right now and where the uncertainty really starts.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Phil24
29 January 2019 17:00:46

 

I Know, its in FI, but wouldnt that be nice.  everyone both sides of the atlantic get a slice of the action. 

 

jhall
29 January 2019 17:02:37

In the short term, I notice that the 12Z GFSP is much better for the chances of snow both tonight and Thursday/Friday than is the op.

Cranleigh, Surrey
Arcus
29 January 2019 17:04:29
Big variations in the GEFS by T+132 I notice regarding that ridging north. Much to be resolved there. Meanwhile, GEM is quite entertaining with its Greenland high and Scandi High and undercutting low, shame there's not more of a cold feed.
Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Ally Pally Snowman
29 January 2019 17:09:59

definitely a trend to more blocking and colder weather longer term in this afternoons 12s. Also mid term cold hanging around for longer. All good.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
29 January 2019 17:11:09

 

I Know, its in FI, but wouldnt that be nice.  everyone both sides of the atlantic get a slice of the action. 

 

Originally Posted by: Phil24 

Yes! Temps down to 2.5c below average for the UK and down to some 4c below average for most of Europe BUT and some 4c above average for Greenland - denoting HIGH Pressure!?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

doctormog
29 January 2019 17:17:07
The UKMO 12z keeps things on the cold side for the duration of the run. I think it will be a while before the outcome for next week is settled.
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Gavin D
29 January 2019 17:22:39

Here's the precipitation from 12z UKMO

6am Thursday to 12:00 Saturday

ezgif.com-gif-maker.thumb.gif.919ce8eedde494ce5b83af8ca1c17ef5.gif

Phil G
29 January 2019 17:28:29
GFS: Significant changes on the 6z and that theme is continued on the 12z. Be interesting how the LP modelled south of Scandi behaves in the coming runs and low pressure generally to the south. That low appears to be bottling the cold air to the north of it, but the anticyclone could become more of a player if it could exert its influence towards us.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif 

Thereafter, some very cold air appears out east. Let's hope we are seeing some building blocks.

Maunder Minimum
29 January 2019 17:33:52

Here's the precipitation from 12z UKMO

6am Thursday to 12:00 Saturday

ezgif.com-gif-maker.thumb.gif.919ce8eedde494ce5b83af8ca1c17ef5.gif

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Well, after all the hype, that would be thoroughly underwhelming for those of us in the Midlands. Would not surprise me though - find it hard to recall when we last had lying snow in January.

New world order coming.
Maunder Minimum
29 January 2019 17:36:41

Check out the GFS Para - stops the Atlantic in its tracks and has a proper Scandi HP at t+204.

The model variability and uncertainty continues.

New world order coming.
Jeff
  • Jeff
  • Advanced Member
29 January 2019 17:37:04

 

GFS: Significant changes on the 6z and that theme is continued on the 12z. Be interesting how the LP modelled south of Scandi behaves in the coming runs and low pressure generally to the south. That low appears to be bottling the cold air to the north of it, but the anticyclone could become more of a player if it could exert its influence towards us.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif

Thereafter, some very cold air appears out east. Let's hope we are seeing some building blocks.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 

 

I’m looking at the Para too but further east and south. That deep, very cold air flooding south is going to develop a low pressure deepening somehwhere near the Eastern Med and Black Sea. Might have the effect of diverting some of the cold westward into Europe and high building westwards into Scandinavia. if not this run, then it might be a trend to watch 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&time=174&lid=PARA&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

 

 

On the East/West Sussex Border

70m ASL

doctormog
29 January 2019 17:37:32

If yesterday’s ensembles shifted in a milde direction, today’s in the longer term have shifted in a less mild direction, albeit a bit messy looking. I still would not like to call it but there are plenty if options. These are the t850s for here http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0

 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

JACKO4EVER
29 January 2019 17:40:43

If yesterday’s ensembles shifted in a milde direction, today’s in the longer term have shifted in a less mild direction, lbeit a bit messy looking. I still would not like to call it but there are plenty if options. These are the t850s for here http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0

 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

yes absolutely a high degree of uncertainty, very interesting and quite a few tasty options deeper into FI. It would not surprise me one little bit to see that ramp flatten out as has happened so many times this winter

Weathermac
29 January 2019 17:46:41

Oh it's LATER in February now is it? Here I was thinking it was later in December, then early January, then mid-late January, then early February? At this rate we will get our cold spell in July. 😂😂😂 Sorry David but a bit of gallows humour is needed now in this wretched winter. 😊

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Yes a wretched winter which az i type this the snow is falling heavily 

This winter has plenty of time to deliver yet write it off at your peril.

Ally Pally Snowman
29 January 2019 17:46:46

Para is Scandi high sliding lows tastic. Nice upgrades this afternoon.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
29 January 2019 17:59:16

Well snowing well here - I certainly think that we will see more snow after this week

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



moomin75
29 January 2019 18:00:19

Well snowing well here - I certainly think that we will see more snow after this week

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Peeing with rain here as usual Marcus. Grrrrrrrr.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Gooner
29 January 2019 18:09:33

Peeing with rain here as usual Marcus. Grrrrrrrr.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

That's not what the radar is saying????

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



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