The Weather Outlook

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White Meadows
29 January 2019 06:41:52

The first model out this morning, ICON, shows the mild trend from last night's 12z GFS and ECM suites hasn't gone away.

Incidentally, despite mention of surface high pressure, I find it strange that nobody linked the T2M charts at all yesterday evening! Both GEFS and indeed ECM showed a marked increase in T2Ms to around average or slightly above, a step-change from the 6z and earlier suites. The reason is that in tandem with a pressure rise, a generally westerly flow is forecast - it's as if this weekend's low resets things closer to normal, a more northerly-tracking jet than of late.

Certainly the T2Ms from last night make grim viewing for anyone hoping for a cold week next week!

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

yes as I mentioned yesterday the 2m temps for London do not dip below zero throughout February, now this trend has increased dramatically:

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png

 

moomin75
29 January 2019 07:00:57
ECM continues the trend to a milder February. That's got to mean UKM change their longer range wording soon. They will probably just very slowly water it down rather than a rapid change....But I think it's irrefutable now that milder is winning out.
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

JACKO4EVER
29 January 2019 07:03:11
Morning all, the uptick in milder conditions continues in the ENS though some wintery weather to get through in the next few days.
SJV
29 January 2019 07:05:55

ECM continues the trend to a milder February. That's got to mean UKM change their longer range wording soon. They will probably just very slowly water it down rather than a rapid change....But I think it's irrefutable now that milder is winning out.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Hmm... I wouldn't say ECM at day 10 is especially mild. I guess I'm the only one who doesn't think we're nailed on for a mild Feburary 

Rob K
29 January 2019 07:07:59

 

So a week of colder than average then up to average by day 7? Ties in well with the Met Office outlook and the models.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Not really as by next week we are well into February when it is supposed to be dominated by “cold or very cold weather” according to the Met outlook. Instead it looks like starting February on a cool to average note and then getting milder. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Arcus
29 January 2019 07:11:10

 

Not really as by next week we are well into February when it is supposed to be dominated by “cold or very cold weather” according to the Met outlook. Instead it looks like starting February on a cool to average note and then getting milder. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

"A low chance at the end of the period [which ends on 11th Feb] for very cold". ECM runs out to 8th Feb.

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Arcus
29 January 2019 07:12:42

 

Hmm... I wouldn't say ECM at day 10 is especially mild. I guess I'm the only one who doesn't think we're nailed on for a mild Feburary 

Originally Posted by: SJV 

Nope you're not the only one.

I only wish some on here could pick my lottery numbers for me.

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

doctormog
29 January 2019 07:14:58

 

Hmm... I wouldn't say ECM at day 10 is especially mild. I guess I'm the only one who doesn't think we're nailed on for a mild Feburary 

Originally Posted by: SJV 

I think it is too early to call but if I was pushed I would say a cold February is the more likely option. The subtle changes to the distribution of blocking and pressure to the NE over the lady day or so is catching my attention. As I said I think by tomorrow evening we will either see a clearer signal to cold or we will need to look deep into FI beyond a milder spell. I’m not calling things either way just yet.

Rob my comments (which were last night) referred to the time up to day 7 (next Monday at time of writing). You seem to be quoting the day 15 to 30 outlook in reply to my comments for the next (now) 6 days!

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Rob K
29 January 2019 07:17:58

 

 

"A low chance at the end of the period [which ends on 11th Feb] for very cold". ECM runs out to 8th Feb.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Actually it says “generally cold” with a low chance of turning “even colder”. If the models are right then it will be generally mild through next week, not generally cold, so it cantthen turn “even colder”, low chance or not. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gooner
29 January 2019 07:21:46

ECM continues the trend to a milder February. That's got to mean UKM change their longer range wording soon. They will probably just very slowly water it down rather than a rapid change....But I think it's irrefutable now that milder is winning out.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

You have said that for 5 weeks now...…………………….you will be right soon no doubt 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



JACKO4EVER
29 January 2019 07:33:03

 

You have said that for 5 weeks now...…………………….you will be right soon no doubt 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

yes, either Mooms will be right or the MetO wrong 🤣

I know where my money is

Rob K
29 January 2019 07:44:32

 

You have said that for 5 weeks now...…………………….you will be right soon no doubt 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Well so far the doubters have been more right than the Met Office, who have continually been calling for cold in the 16-30 day period since early December. If the MO long rangers had been right we would now be three or four weeks into a decent cold spell, instead we are about to complete yet another above average CET month. Why would anyone have confidence in the Met being right now? They have been crying wolf for weeks and so far we’ve only seen the occasional glimpse of a pussycat.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
29 January 2019 07:58:51

ECM continues the trend to a milder February. That's got to mean UKM change their longer range wording soon. They will probably just very slowly water it down rather than a rapid change....But I think it's irrefutable now that milder is winning out.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Thry are expecting to make changes today. Milder spells will be mentioned but the emphasis remains on cold. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gooner
29 January 2019 08:04:17

 

Well so far the doubters have been more right than the Met Office, who have continually been calling for cold in the 16-30 day period since early December. If the MO long rangers had been right we would now be three or four weeks into a decent cold spell, instead we are about to complete yet another above average CET month. Why would anyone have confidence in the Met being right now? They have been crying wolf for weeks and so far we’ve only seen the occasional glimpse of a pussycat.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

About as correct as those saying " will change today surely " 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gavin D
29 January 2019 08:05:05

Good news this morning

UKMO extended is back!

ukm2.2019020500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.af1fe4f4a09ad623520e673781e70bc0.png

Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
29 January 2019 08:07:34

 

Thry are expecting to make changes today. Milder spells will be mentioned but the emphasis remains on cold. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

Brian, I think they always maintained spells  milder spells into February especially in southern and central parts of the country so this options has always been around.

 

I think February is far from certain and right now calling out for more then 3 days ahead is full of uncertainty. Nevertheless I agree with posters this morning their longer term outlook has been poor and if you called the opposite of what they were forecasting you would have done well.

Kingston Upon Thames
Rob K
29 January 2019 08:07:58

 

About as correct as those saying " will change today surely " 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Well the point is that they should have changed and they haven’t. There’s nothing to be proud of about sticking to a busted forecast for more than half the winter. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gooner
29 January 2019 08:08:32

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.4e165c90af8811a157291d3065fb3e16.png

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
29 January 2019 08:10:03

 

Well the point is that they should have changed and they haven’t. There’s nothing to be proud of about sticking to a busted forecast for more than half the winter. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

And how daft would they have looked if they had changed it only to bring it back again , they have and probably still are seeing signs of something more a kin to Winter , if they weren't sure they would have dropped it trust me.

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



ballamar
29 January 2019 08:20:41

 

Well the point is that they should have changed and they haven’t. There’s nothing to be proud of about sticking to a busted forecast for more than half the winter. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

To be fair they will stick with their output not available to the public and will call it that way. Whether their computer models are correct will be reviewed once it has happened

Rob K
29 January 2019 08:21:32
Well they might still see some signs of winter. I, and the models as far as they go, see another above average CET month in February to round off a mild winter overall. We’ll see who’s right in four weeks’ time 🙂
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Solar Cycles
29 January 2019 08:24:08
There no making a silk purse out of a sows ear with regards to the MetO extended outlook, it’s been a flop throughout the winter and no doubt come March it will be consigned to the bin and on par with the CFS for inaccurate output. Still it’s got 4 weeks to pull a rabbit out of the hat so it’s not over until the last day of winter.😁
Brian Gaze
29 January 2019 08:48:48

There no making a silk purse out of a sows ear with regards to the MetO extended outlook, it’s been a flop throughout the winter and no doubt come March it will be consigned to the bin and on par with the CFS for inaccurate output. Still it’s got 4 weeks to pull a rabbit out of the hat so it’s not over until the last day of winter.😁

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

The BBC / MeteoGroup have done a lot better than the Met with extended range forecasts this winter. Of course it doesn't mean they will continue to lead the way in spring and summer. Anyone with more than a passing interest in this topic knows the skill level of long range forecasts in the UK is very low.    

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gary L
29 January 2019 08:51:22

 

Well so far the doubters have been more right than the Met Office, who have continually been calling for cold in the 16-30 day period since early December. If the MO long rangers had been right we would now be three or four weeks into a decent cold spell, instead we are about to complete yet another above average CET month. Why would anyone have confidence in the Met being right now? They have been crying wolf for weeks and so far we’ve only seen the occasional glimpse of a pussycat.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Im not sure how people are looking at the ECM and then comparing that with the 16-30 day outlook from the metoffice which is out of range of the operational models.

Solar Cycles
29 January 2019 09:00:37

 

The BBC / MeteoGroup have done a lot better than the Met with extended range forecasts this winter. Of course it doesn't mean they will continue to lead the way in spring and summer. Anyone with more than a passing interest in this topic knows the skill level of long range forecasts in the UK is very low.    

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Indeed, I’ve been impressed with them both Brian. I think GLOSEA needs retiring, all that money and it’s woeful to be honest. 

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