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Brian Gaze
28 January 2019 10:51:29


 


Yes that makes sense.


Easy though to fall into the trap of thinking that 70% of the time this forecast is correct instead. 


Originally Posted by: Stolen Snowman 


That's not correct. Michael found the article and posted in the MO thread. The quote is very specific:


"He estimates a 70% chance of a severe cold spell around the end of January/early February."


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1079493#post1079493


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tallyho_83
28 January 2019 14:32:51

Forgot to share the Weather online monthly outlook:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm



Last months update - They did mention the easterly to occur now but this failed as you know so here's to the easterly during the 2nd week of Feb then!? *8/2/19 - 14/2/19*)


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Downpour
28 January 2019 14:34:58


Looks like mostly rain tomorrow for Exeter and then a rapid change to snow around 3pm looking at that large white blob as forecast by BBC but by 6pm the precipitation would have already cleared but looks like it may linger in central and south eastern areas: - He said accumulations of 2-5cms even at lower levels. However, It depends how heavy precipitation will be for any evaporative cooling at 1500z.


Looks like the south east is where the snow will be the most significant with cold air to the north from another font colliding with the low coming in from the west moving across all of southern England! So looks like a brief transient snow event in Devon between 1500 and 1800 hours but snow lasting perhaps between 1800 and 12:00 am in many parts of the central southern and south eastern areas.


Looks like the cold air has already under cut that warmer sector as it's already snowing as far south as Plymouth by 1500 when most of N.E Devon and East Devon, south SOmerset and west Dorset still sees rain - I will keep you all updated here in Devon tomorrow as the band of snow (if any) from same frontal system will hit Devon first.


However, BBC graphics (as always) are really poor. So will check Met Office rainfall radar,.



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


1428 BBC News had quite a long piece on – South East and south Midlands the sweet spot with all-snow events on both Tuesday evening and Thursday – but stressed uncertainty. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
wingman
28 January 2019 15:58:16
METO long ranger updated, still a cold/very cold outlook.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 



moomin75
29 January 2019 07:02:49
The stupidity of some of these forecasters really annoys me. BBC local radio in my area this morning, Bee Tucker comes on and says, we are waking up to no frost today as temperatures are only just below freezing? Say what? Listen to what you are saying!!! Temps below freezing = frost. My window was very iced up on my car. Think before you speak!!!
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gooner
29 January 2019 07:23:49

The stupidity of some of these forecasters really annoys me. BBC local radio in my area this morning, Bee Tucker comes on and says, we are waking up to no frost today as temperatures are only just below freezing? Say what? Listen to what you are saying!!! Temps below freezing = frost. My window was very iced up on my car. Think before you speak!!!

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Local Radio is great , the other day they said " it will feel windy " 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
29 January 2019 07:58:44

The stupidity of some of these forecasters really annoys me. BBC local radio in my area this morning, Bee Tucker comes on and says, we are waking up to no frost today as temperatures are only just below freezing? Say what? Listen to what you are saying!!! Temps below freezing = frost. My window was very iced up on my car. Think before you speak!!!

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Just because it is below zero doesn’t always mean you will get visible frost. If the air is dry then surfaces still might not reach the dew point and so no frost. (It’s like that here this morning, a tiny bit of white in places on the grass but no frost on cars etc.)


Sounds like they were talking rubbish though!


 


 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gooner
29 January 2019 08:02:30


 


Just because it is below zero doesn’t always mean you will get visible frost. If the air is dry then surfaces still might not reach the dew point and so no frost. (It’s like that here this morning, a tiny bit of white in places on the grass but no frost on cars etc.)


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The point is she said no frost , you are correct in dry air frost sometimes isn't visible but K is pointing out how silly her comment sounds 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin D
29 January 2019 08:20:48

CPF January update


February to April


Temperature summary


For February and February-March-April as a whole, below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures. The likelihood of impacts from cold weather is greater than normal, particularly earlier in the 3-month period. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for February-March-April will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 25%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).


Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-fma-v1.pdf


Precipitation summary


For February and February-March-April as a whole, above-average precipitation is more probable than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for February-March-April will fall into the driest of our five categories is 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).


Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-fma-v1.pdf

Rob K
29 January 2019 11:03:45
Tonight's warning for the southeast has been brought forward and watered down, as suggested. Now focusing more on the eastern parts of the region and perhaps high ground of Surrey, Sussex and Kent

Updated: 10:49 on Tue 29 Jan 2019 GMT
Reason for update
The start time of the warning has been brought forward to cater for some snowfall during peak travel times Tuesday evening and the expected amounts of snow have been reduced.

A band of rain pushing east across parts of England is likely to turn to snow during Tuesday evening, with snow continuing into Wednesday. Accumulations of 1-3 cm are possible, particularly over parts of East Anglia and the high ground of Surrey, Sussex & Kent, with accumulations of 5 cm in places. As this clears, ice is likely to form on some surfaces on Wednesday morning.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
29 January 2019 11:05:59
New warnings out for Thursday/Friday which at the moment poses a greater risk than this evening and over a wider area.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
tallyho_83
29 January 2019 11:33:39

New warnings out for Thursday/Friday which at the moment poses a greater risk than this evening and over a wider area.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Whilst today is such a downgrade and turning out to be a right damb squib and damp it is!!


Plus no snow showers behind the front - that were previously forecast for tonight!!


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
29 January 2019 11:55:26
A BIG DOWNGRADE FOR Today as predicted it's mostly rain band heading SE but an upgrade for Thursday's snow? But the fact today has been such a downgrade and turning out to be a damp squib what's to stop Thursday's snow event from being downgraded?

Bare in mind yesterday there was a potential for 1-3cms and up to 5cms of snow accumulating - now there is not talk of any snow falling in the south and south east let alone accumulating!



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Arcus
29 January 2019 12:09:25
Sunday 3 Feb - Tuesday 12 Feb

A cold, bright and frosty start to Sunday, but cloud will probably start to edge in from the west, bringing rain, with risk of sleet and hill snow. This will tend to ease before it reaches northern and eastern areas, so here it may remain brighter. Thereafter, the weather is likely to remain changeable with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by sunshine and showers. Winds will be brisk at times with gales around the coasts. After a cold start to February, temperatures may temporarily return closer to normal, particularly across the south, whilst northern parts are likely to remain cold. Overnight frosts are still likely to be widespread and towards the end of this period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder.


Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 29 Jan 2019
 
 

Wednesday 13 Feb - Wednesday 27 Feb

Cold or very cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds becoming established. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.


Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 29 Jan 2019

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Arcus
29 January 2019 12:11:39

"temperatures may temporarily return closer to normal, particularly across the south, whilst northern parts are likely to remain cold" is the "big" change.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
warrenb
29 January 2019 12:23:03
Yes and still only in the short term outlook, the longer remains for cold or very cold
Rob K
29 January 2019 12:36:39
So we have gone from "a low chance" to "a greater chance" of easterlies? I'm even more confused now.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
marco 79
29 January 2019 13:00:32
It's like the East Midlands train service ..always later than the timetable....but it does eventually turn up!....
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Maunder Minimum
29 January 2019 13:02:23

So we have gone from "a low chance" to "a greater chance" of easterlies? I'm even more confused now.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes, I had to check and rub my eyes, but the Met Office is not backing down on the extended risk of cold from an easterly quarter.


And the GFS Parallel does give us a proper HLB in deepest FI. But we have been chasing deepest FI since December.


New world order coming.
tallyho_83
29 January 2019 13:06:35
Watch the Met office with Adian McGiven Live:



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gooner
29 January 2019 13:17:49

So we have gone from "a low chance" to "a greater chance" of easterlies? I'm even more confused now.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Not removed then Rob 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


kmoorman
29 January 2019 13:25:20

Watch the Met office with Adian McGiven Live:

https://youtu.be/ThuIt2EvrO0

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


Very interesting.  Thank you


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
tallyho_83
29 January 2019 13:25:24

Watch the Met office with Adian McGiven Live:

https://youtu.be/ThuIt2EvrO0



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


Did anyone just pick up on what the Met office meteorologist  guest Jenny said? re the longer range weather as we head further into Feb?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


stophe
29 January 2019 13:30:28


 


 


Did anyone just pick up on what the Met office meteorologist  guest Jenny said? re the longer range weather as we head further into Feb?


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


https://youtu.be/ThuIt2EvrO0?t=1346


 

Solar Cycles
29 January 2019 13:33:31


Sunday 3 Feb - Tuesday 12 Feb

A cold, bright and frosty start to Sunday, but cloud will probably start to edge in from the west, bringing rain, with risk of sleet and hill snow. This will tend to ease before it reaches northern and eastern areas, so here it may remain brighter. Thereafter, the weather is likely to remain changeable with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by sunshine and showers. Winds will be brisk at times with gales around the coasts. After a cold start to February, temperatures may temporarily return closer to normal, particularly across the south, whilst northern parts are likely to remain cold. Overnight frosts are still likely to be widespread and towards the end of this period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder.


Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 29 Jan 2019
 
 

Wednesday 13 Feb - Wednesday 27 Feb

Cold or very cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds becoming established. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.


Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 29 Jan 2019

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Geez they don’t know when to give up. 😂😂

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