https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47006603

sorry if this was in the previous thread, but it does finish up by saying colder weather may be on the way...

The Met office still goes for the cold weather for February as it has been for weeks yet many of the models indicate a change to milder weather from the coming  weekend ? Surely they have the resources and the best expertise and furthermore have access to information others don’t?

That's what I was going to say because one of them would have to 'give way' - although i do remember the Met Office forecasting blizzards during last years feast from east in their longer range outlook and the models never forecast this until a few days prior and I thought the MET were telling porkies but they proved me wrong - (Storm Emma brought 6-7" of powdery dry snow on 1st March 18) and yes it was a blizzard at times! So Met Office got that totally correct.  

Speaking for myself, I would have had more reason to be doubtful of the MetO's prediction of notable cold in Feb had their forecast from during/before the festive season of generally colder weather from the middle of January failed to materialise. I think that should be borne in mind by all of us before we begin to question their thoughts for further ahead.

As far as I can recall, they never at any time predicted there would be a major freeze in the early to middle part of the winter, although they did at one point before Christmas suggest there was an small chance of a change to colder weather happening before the turn of the year. While we are not in the middle of a big freeze, there is no doubt that the weather has generally been somewhat colder since the middle of January than it was for much of the time in December and the first half of this month. Furthermore, this coming week looks like being far from mild.

The contingency forecast also suggested to me that January would not be a particularly cold month and the 3 month cold signal was due to the expectation of a cold Feb and March. We'll have to wait and see what happens but they clearly have strong signals for High Latitude Blocking and potential for very cold weather moving through February.

The ST had an article a couple of weeks ago saying the Met had given the government a warning with 70% confidence that severe cold would grip the nation in early February. If anyone has a subscription they may be able to find it.

When you look at the timescales, for the period up to the 10th the MO rate it as only a "low chance" that it will turn severely cold. It looks like they think that any severe cold is more likely to occur later than that, so at or beyond the end of the period covered by GFS forecasts and beyond the coverage of most of the other models.

LOL

Just watching the 21:55 telling what the weather will be like tomorrow ( Sunday ) poor , fancy broadcasting Saturday evenings forecast

Haha I saw that as well it was showing Sunday 15:00 still ....when it's 21:55pm Sunday!! Pretty poor I must admit!

For a minute I watched the weather thinking SH1T - is it Sunday tomorrow? then realised ....no can't be!!?

Yes I just watched that as well, it’s 21.55 on Sunday and I was watching the forecast for 14 hours earlier, 08.00 on Sunday, back to the past......bit poor

It was yesterdays , either that or she has had the same dress on for 2 days 

Well, I will watch the BBC 1 weather forecast shortly in 5 mins - hopefully this isn't another pre-recorded weather forecast that's a day old!!

Just like the new BBC weather graphics esp the precipitation graphics - they are almost 1 year old now I think!!

How meaningful though is this? After all it’s just a forecast and the weather will do what it will.

I’ve often wondered of the point of confidence percentages if they’re not verified. There may be some sort of metric that checks back on the number of times the computer was correct (and you’d assume on average 7 out of 10 times in this scenario). But how do you define it. Or is it no better than a ‘gut’ feeling as in ‘we think there’s a higher likelihood of this because the computer says so!’ 

Makes you think.

i guess it’s no different than the Met office LRF using the models of 2 or 3 days ago as they continue to do on s daily basis. 

He wasn't remotely vague about Tuesday.  He said snow for many; he also said there was the prospect of further snow later on the week.

Interesting forecast from AccuWEATHER:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/another-winter-storm-to-bring-widespread-rain-snow-to-western-europe/70007263

Another winter storm to bring widespread rain, snow to western Europe

Seems about right to me as a forecast, looking at UKMO 00z for example:

I would assume the 70% figure relates to clustering of long-range modelling, eg 70% of the perturbations went for a cold scenario.

Yes that makes sense.

Easy though to fall into the trap of thinking that 70% of the time this forecast is correct instead. 

Looks like mostly rain tomorrow for Exeter and then a rapid change to snow around 3pm looking at that large white blob as forecast by BBC but by 6pm the precipitation would have already cleared but looks like it may linger in central and south eastern areas: - He said accumulations of 2-5cms even at lower levels. However, It depends how heavy precipitation will be for any evaporative cooling at 1500z.

Looks like the south east is where the snow will be the most significant with cold air to the north from another font colliding with the low coming in from the west moving across all of southern England! So looks like a brief transient snow event in Devon between 1500 and 1800 hours but snow lasting perhaps between 1800 and 12:00 am in many parts of the central southern and south eastern areas.

Looks like the cold air has already under cut that warmer sector as it's already snowing as far south as Plymouth by 1500 when most of N.E Devon and East Devon, south SOmerset and west Dorset still sees rain - I will keep you all updated here in Devon tomorrow as the band of snow (if any) from same frontal system will hit Devon first.

However, BBC graphics (as always) are really poor. So will check Met Office rainfall radar,.

That's because 2-3 days ago the computer models were suggesting the low pressure moving in later in the week would take a more northerly track and stall to our NW, allowing less cold air to move across. The models now have that LP sliding south of the UK, keeping us on the cold side of the jetstream.  Whether that's just a delay of the arrival of more of an Atlantic influence or heralds a continuation of cold weather is the question - and lies at the heart of the debate about the Met Office longer range outlook.