Its certainly stretching the credibility of the persistent UKM long range - which looks more out of kilter with each passing day.

I’m an optimist but this is becoming very strange.

Yes another flip we see in models - they really haven't a clue - but slowly and gradually the ensembles are trending milder so those forecast like EC 30 day showing 3c below average for the UK and as much as 6c below average for Scandinavia may be very wrong indeed!

06z ensembles for London - definite trend toward milder than average weather now!! ALTHOUGH The OP is an outlier the trend is still there!

The same ‘last charts of GFS’ that have been there in what seems like an age. I’m not giving up hope (IMBY alert) but I’m ready to call the UKM LRF and several others a bust if these trends continue.

could be a case of forecaster experience over model putput and expecting the Siberia high to inflate and exert influence. Will be interesting to see how it all pans out!! Trends at the moment what we can see would favour a less cold Feb

Certainly much less cold in the GEFS:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Mogreps must be showing a very strong cold blocked signal for February. 

I know where you are coming from Neil and I do note the apparent contradiction between what GFS is indicating for further ahead with the longer-range thoughts of the MetO. However, given the amount of variance there has been in the output in recent days which Gandalf alluded to above plus the ongoing uncertainty even at a few days ahead at times (the coming week being a good case in point), I am not going to lose any sleep over any solutions shown at T+288.

One thing I'd say about the GEFS in the 300h + range is that they are useless.

Para 6z doing the Barlett late on as well plot thickens

With the threat of snow for Tuesday and Wednesday coming from a front moving in a nw/se direction across the country. The low may still be playing a part in slowing the track of the front thus giving several hours of snow especially for east Anglia, London the home counties and the south east.

Looking further ahead my main interest is the hunt for more prolonged deeper cold from the east/ north east. The gfs op looks to be on the right track with what we can expect if the strat profiles several days back are anyway correct. Expecting to see a large frigid cold pool developing somewhere roughly over the Urals. This would probably mean a fairly significant lob of vortex moving east and then southeast out of the Canadian lobe into eastern Europe pulling the frigid air westward from eastern Siberia.

Heights then buiding north once again from the Atlantic north and eastward with a tanking AO avecting some of the frigid cold pool westward over north western Europe and the UK as a strong block forms between Greenland and Iceland. Time frame for this probably 7th to 14th February.

Sensible comment! However, surely you would start to see the ensembles trend colder in line with Met Office forecast and other LRF to show a blocked Feb but it seems like the exact opposite is happening! However the longer range forecast for FEB still remains cold and blocked!

The whole Atlantic/Euro pattern has been very strange since the Autumn. Entirely lacking in even a semblance of interest, but strange none the less. Looking at that chart, this theme continues, but it almost looks like something is about to 'give' in overall pattern. 

And so far the models (although they have been none too reliable) have trumped the long-range signals.

Short term we have opportunities for snow but as we head into Feb the GFS ens is clearly trending less cold

00z

06z

Couldn't agree more really!

They do a lot of video updates on YouTube which I love watching, but since they have become social media savvy, they seem to have jumped on the SSW bandwagon and promoted the idea of a possible severe cold spell occurring sometime after as a result, and it is a line they have pushed since the onset of Winter. Of course, being professional Meteorologists, they naturally love talking about all these possibilities, but to the average viewer (of which no one on here is not!) this could come across as a definite forecast, especially when repeated over a period of time, which they, in fairness, have done. 

The 06z output remains generally cold until FI, moreso in the north with a wintry mix of weather which seems to tie in with the 5-16 outlook.

Beyond then there is a signal for milder/less cold conditions which may or may not come to fruition and yes that is at odds with the current 16-30 day outlook.

Only time will tell and the time for post mortums is surely after the death of winter not just on its diagnosis?

I actually disagree - I think the weather we've experienced has largely reflected the long term from the Met office. It's been cold with some snow, more so for the North of the country. They've been very clear that very cold weather was only a greater risk than normal and we've seen from the charts that this has nearly come to fruition on a couple of occasions. That low exiting the US last week which scuppered the Easterly for example. 

I think that people read to much if what they want to read into the forecasts.

But of course you pair have access to much more information than the met office eh 

We have to remember the Met are one of the most consulted weather organisations in the world and have access to all manner of data, they are clearly seeing something ………..…...we cant 

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I have to agree, whilst they can never be correct all the time, they have access to far more data then the whole of this forum and until they say otherwise, you would not bet against them being correct.