In the 19 years of Model Watching I have been doing, I have normally used the 00z and 12z runs.
Cold air is now more limited in the NW side of Europe, and I can clearly note that less cold Westerly winds and SW winds, are more often than not expected to control our Weather dials...
Canada and Greenland and NE to North USA and NE Europe much of the time remain colder than average especially during Stratospheric Warming impacts.
Warm air is catches in by passing Low Pressure short waves and they normally stick around over NE USA, West USA, NE E Canada and SW S Greenland and pass to cross NW and North Atlantic, plus Central and SE Europe gets cold pools more than in the UK just like NE USA and North USA does.
The Low Pressure Conveyor belt we get the less cold sectors more often than not, we have to understand that staying on the drier and just cool side of North Atlantic Storms in Winter has always been tracking away to our NW or NE.
Mid Lattitude High Pressure in the Central North Atlantic, SW, SE USA- and West of Europe- tends to wander West or moves east,
Any Nor’easter Low’s that do develop, are good over NE USA and over Iceland, but they seldom affect the UK.
The North Atlantic turns very cold in the NW parts, and High Pressure over Eastern and NE Europe in winter’s on some occasions are there often and so is the Azores High to our Southwest in our winter’s, any Zonal North Atlantic PV, does just get to move east when the System’s are steered ENE from West USA and SE mid to S USA they are often giving mild air in South and a mix of cold and mild spells in SW USA plus SE USA as well...👍😀,this flattens the pressure pattern for them but with Eastern Central USA often seeing proper cold spells that then turn less cold the further SE or SW you go in the US of A.
And for Western Europe we see less cold weather- the North Atlan tic Low’s affecting the UK sometines bring short lived cold weather but the overall pattern brings a reduced incidence of cold North or NW incursions, I mean it last just two days, followed by more drier conditions with some wet weather yes but the forecast models often bring in Westerly or NW winds, with the coldest conditions running away to our West or NW or our East- away from UK.
The Steering Flow in the Pacific feeds across some parts of the USA especially in winter Seasons...- And this affects what goes on in the NW Europe and North Atlantic, with cold and snowy spells reserved for those aforementioned areas.
Edited by user
23 January 2019 01:05:02
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Reason: Not Specified
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.