Maybe so but looking out the window now on snow covered grass and paths and I`m in Coventry not Scotland so can`t grumble.

I have to say I am really enjoying the 06z run. Loaded with potential.

After seeing snow falling and settling yesterday. Optimism of short notice and fun snow is growing.

Sunday looks quite nasty

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_90_1.png

The GFS 6Z is notable in that it offers snow opportunities pretty much everywhere. In many respects its better than an easterly for bringing widespread snow potential (if not as severe/significant locally). The flexibility in the wind direction that varies from south westerly to north easterly means everywhere has an opportunity to enjoy the lake effect whereas during a north easterly there are always places liable to be left out (notably the west).

While we haven't entered into a big freeze, the weather is now generally colder than it has been during the winter this far in many areas of the country. I know that some are frustrated that the best charts for cold in the model output often seen to be 10 or more days away. However, let's remember that the MetO predicted during the festive season that the weather would turn generally cold around or just after mid-January and that is pretty much what has happened.

What I am not seeing any indication of in the output, contrary to what one or two have been trying to imply, is any indication of pressure rising over central/southern Europe and a generally SW-NE flow taking hold. I know what is being suggested for the near term is not the easterly many of us crave, but IMO in one is looking for cold, we are in a better place than where we were until last week.

What a messy chart @ 300z:

Also something I have not seen in a many years of model watching!

All you need is for that LP to sink southwards to allow that HP to retogress westwards and build over Scandi & Greenland but instead look what happens to the low pressure.. over Denmark?

Travels back out into the north see and goes westwards (after going eastwards).

Then travels Northwards yet again past Iceland and towards Svalbard into the Arctic, thus not allowing the HP retrogress into Scandinavia and HP to build over Greenland!

Squeaky bum time for those living along the East Coast this weekend if some of the model outputs are to go by on. That little "secondary" low could cause some tidal problems for prone areas but hopefully it'll be tempered down as we get nearer to the time. One model shows 50 mph-plus sustained NW winds over the Thanet area on Saturday night.

One for Retron to mull over for now.

This is a great post. TWO has been fantastic for entertainment this past fortnight. Not so good for forecasting the weather. I'm sat here looking out on lying snow that I had no idea I would receive (indeed from the tone on here, I hadn't expected to receive snow again all winter). Sometimes the best is the enemy of the good – in the search for a mythical easterly we miss what's under our nose!

GFS is continuing to trot out rather cold/cold runs with snow potential increasing the further North and West you go in the UK.

Also evident in the runs is an increasing tendency in FI for winds to swing to the NE as the AH builds to our North, only for short waves to continue to scupper any pressure build over Scandi which may open the door to a potent Easterly. Instead, these short waves backed up by an always prominent AH, clear the path for LP after LP diving across us from the NW keeping the cycle going and ensuring NE winds are short lived.

I've been studying Winter charts for more years than I can remember and I'm struggling to recall a similar set up which has been so prolonged. If it continues, you'd think it was only a matter of time before we hit the jackpot and the Met's February outlook has been consistent in it's prediction of a cold Easterly flow as we head into February. The problem of course is the AH, which continues to be prominent into FI across the MO and shows no sign of packing it's bags unfortunately.

GFSP 6Z is even better than the GFS.

Two excellent runs. If they verified it would mean snow for everyone and a lot of snow for some.

Are these two runs outliers or part of a new trend?

I have to say looking through the ensembles, if its snow your after - without doubt some of the best opportunities for repeat snowfalls for sometime.

Some excellent runs around this morning with snow chances springing up just about anywhere, from time to time. 

Worth saying, the longer rangers' forecasts about a switch to a more wintry regime on or around 22 Jan have been proved right. 

Same in High Wycombe 

Further on its obvious looking at the runs, ens and eps that the downward propagation of negative U winds into the trop is occurring. Details mid to long range still sketchy as to where exactly block will set up but the pattern looks set for colder and more wintry as blocking becomes established to the north and north east. With strong possibility of very cold ( sub -12c 850's) entering the mix.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_156_1.pngYes please! 

On the other hand there is also a case to be made that the constant ridging of the Azores high to our west and NW is in fact blocking the Atlantic and maintaining our generally cold northerly flow. What hasn't happened much so far, which has been a scourge in the past, is that it isn't tending to topple over us.

Horrible chart. I think the current weather has conclusively proved that the South won't get snow in an unsettled set up with winds/weather from the NW. 🤔🙄😜

Being irritating aside the 6z generally looks good for further snow at times just about anywhere, albeit transient. As long as there's cold air about and the lps aren't dragging too much milder air in there's always going to be snow chances and it wouldn't surprise me to see somewhere getting a decent fall.

If this materliaises - fingers crossed!

Well that's not true is it -  I think you'll find some of the best snow from the setup has been across southern England/South Midlands, especially around Buckinghamshire. 

Also Weather Idle was reporting heavy snow down in Dover this morning.

EDIT - just realised you were joking.  Sorry , your emojis don't show up on a desktop.

yes a cracker- if we can nudge that into the 3-4 day period then I would be much happier with things. Lots of opportunities for snow just about anywhere on today’s runs, but caution must be observed as I think FI starts at T+96.

Based on yesterday's events, you're silly to rule out snow in the south from a setup like this. 

The outlook is cold and fairly wintry - detail currently uncertain. 

Uppers btw http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_156_2.png

Cold enough for snow across the entire country. Showers would push a long way inland due to the westerly tilt.