The Weather Outlook

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Chunky Pea
22 January 2019 20:00:57

 

Grow up CP. Yet again you've misunderstood the point and decided to intervene unnecessarily.

Why not stick to annoying people in UIA?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

As I said.. 

Do try to be less argumentative Gandalf, it is unbecoming, especially when you are wrong.. as usual. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Gandalf The White
22 January 2019 20:01:32

 

AIUI, Brian is producing the number of days with snow. If the GFS showed snow on a given day at 0Z, 6Z, 12Z and 18Z, that wouldn't make it 4 days with snow!

 

Originally Posted by: jhall 

Yes, I worked that out earlier, as you will have noted. My point last night was about the theoretical maximum if you look at all the ensembles, not about how Brian calculates his 'snow row'.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gooner
22 January 2019 20:01:38

Oxford had a good covering of snow this afternoon , which tells me if the charts pan out as they are showing many will see snow in the next 10-14 days 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
22 January 2019 20:05:50

A poor ECM later on especially, the PV just won't give us a break and those low heights over Europe are under threat.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Thankfully a big outlier 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Downpour
22 January 2019 20:08:36
A decent covering of snow in Chingford, north London. Wasn’t expecting it at all!
Chingford

London E4

147ft

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 January 2019 20:15:36

Whilst its pleasing to note that others on the Forum are experiencing snow my opportunities remain at zero until such time as an easterly of any sort can force its way into the equation!  I'll take the GEM please which at least shows that anything is possible I guess.  Worth me keeping an eye on as the other options on the table are no good IMBY!

 

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

I don’t have snow either!  Looks like we’re both in for yet another snow free birthday!  Enjoy your day tomorrow!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

DPower
22 January 2019 20:21:04
Have a feeling after the milder blip the move back to cold/ very cold will not be long. Ecm very interesting in the early stages as the high to the east makes further westward movement. This may of course be a red herring with the main focus of Atlantic ridge building north and trough dropping to the south. My money though would be for russian high to extend westward with bitterly cold uppers undercutting as atlantic ridge ridging north and dropping trough pulls very cold air over UK with even stronger heights building over the GIN corridor.

Right or wrong I think the way forward is very cold and wintry.

doctormog
22 January 2019 20:25:40

A decent covering of snow in Chingford, north London. Wasn’t expecting it at all!

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

It just goes to show what can crop up when there is cold air around. Probably somewhat unforecastable more than a day or so out but may not be a unique scenario in the next couple of weeks given the generally chilly nature of the output. (No that’s not a forecast )

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Karl Guille
22 January 2019 20:28:21

I don’t have snow either!  Looks like we’re both in for yet another snow free birthday!  Enjoy your day tomorrow!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Yes, it was looking oh so different this time last week too!! Never mind, have a good one regardless of the weather!

St. Sampson

Guernsey

JACKO4EVER
22 January 2019 20:30:49
Well if we are going to have a NW influence next week then we can only hope that there are disturbances in the flow. As Doc says above these are mostly unforcastable until only a day or so out, and I suppose anything can happen. In the meantime good to see some folks enjoy a bit of winter proper today.
Broadmayne Blizzard
22 January 2019 20:41:53

A poor ECM later on especially, the PV just won't give us a break and those low heights over Europe are under threat.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

. The ECM run you consider so poor has a cross polar flow. 

Split vortex allowing a wedge of high pressure to form and would most likely go on from that point to a similar evolution to the GFS 12z op

Formerly Blizzard of 78
Downpour
22 January 2019 20:44:33

 

 

 

It just goes to show what can crop up when there is cold air around. Probably somewhat unforecastable more than a day or so out but may not be a unique scenario in the next couple of weeks given the generally chilly nature of the output. (No that’s not a forecast )

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Indeed Doc. Odd set up tonight. Even snowed a fair bit in town (but did not settle).

Chingford

London E4

147ft

Weathermac
22 January 2019 21:09:01

Well if we are going to have a NW influence next week then we can only hope that there are disturbances in the flow. As Doc says above these are mostly unforcastable until only a day or so out, and I suppose anything can happen. In the meantime good to see some folks enjoy a bit of winter proper today.

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Yes even had snow cover here in coventry Jacko so im not complaining ...i do remember you missed the snow in 2010 so nothing new for you....

snowish
22 January 2019 21:50:14

 

Jesus wept. I programmed the bloody thing. 

See: 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1076828#post1076828

 

and this example:

 

The number is always whole so there is never a need to round up or down. 

I'll try and give a better example. Assume the GEFS only goes out to t+24 hours and consists of only 3 runs. Then it would be calculated like this: 

 

Runt+0t+6t+12t+18Snow row count
P1NoNoNoNo0
P2NoYesNoNo1
P3YesYesYesYes1
Snow row total     2

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Two tools required, Head and Brickwall

Paul S, Burnley
backtobasics
22 January 2019 22:24:13
No one watching the pub run, too busy counting snow rows perhaps 😃 could be a good one, totally different profile to the high out east, bigger LP in continent propping it up, could be a good run with some cold air quite close.
tallyho_83
22 January 2019 22:33:07

AGAIN THIS BL**DY AZORES ruining things again!

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Karl Guille
22 January 2019 22:35:04

Could the pub run deliver a winter freezer run!!??

St. Sampson

Guernsey

Phil G
22 January 2019 22:43:15
Chances of this?

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.gif 

For here, close to the perfect synoptics.

Ally Pally Snowman
22 January 2019 22:43:58

Could the pub run deliver a winter freezer run!!??

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

 

Incredible easterly on the pub run best of the winter!

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Phil G
22 January 2019 22:49:06
backtobasics
22 January 2019 22:50:27

Chances of this?
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.gif
For here, close to the perfect synoptics.

Originally Posted by: Phil G 

Nailed on surely ....  that cold air was propagated into just the right place earlier in the run so that when the LP dropped south it was fed in on from the north east then east. Of course won’t be there tomorrow but good eye candy none the less. This all JFF after all right ?

Karl Guille
22 January 2019 22:56:38

Nearly 4 days of sub-10 850hPA on the GFS 18z for many, peaking at around -14 or so!!

St. Sampson

Guernsey

Chiltern Blizzard
22 January 2019 22:57:56

AGAIN THIS BL**DY AZORES ruining things again!

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Bloody thing!  The ****** only goes and helps set up a monster beasterly just three days later!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Phil G
22 January 2019 22:58:49
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/18_264_2mtmp.png?cb 

Ice day for most.

Don't know why I'm bothering. Yes backtobasics will be a different forecast outcome on the next run. So much change going on, there are so many features progged to the north of us with the odd one plotting a different course and affecting the forecast thereafter.

Lionel Hutz
22 January 2019 23:20:10
The eye candy is appearing again, I see. I have a question. Am I correct in thinking that there is far more eye candy about this winter than normal? Obviously, charts at +240 hours cannot be relied upon. However, if they're coming up very regularly, it suggests that conditions are right for a freeze up. Or do we get charts like this every winter? Is so, then they're just the usual background noise of almost random charts appearing in FI. My guess is that they are unusually frequent this year and hence, these amazing FI charts have a good chance of sticking sooner or later.
Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



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