Have been fairly impressed with the modelling of Tuesday from a fair way out and some could get a very interesting days weather. Other than that blocking can get a foothold in the near timeframe if there is a chance the energy in the jet is overdone. But at least it’s busy in the thread as potential is there, who knows a ‘where did that come from’ analysis might be needed in years to come!

But you know MM it is often the case with our temperate climate I feel the same but if it really gets on your nerves dont look

 

Yet more eye candy at 10 days. Wake me up when we see some eye candy charts at 5 days - then I will take note. All we have been doing so far this winter is chasing, chasing never catching - the winter hare this season is too fast for our tired old dogs to catch.

it does not count Peter because the mornings run will be correct then if not the 12

 

How's your mild weekend and return to zonality looking tonight?

The answer to that will put your latest interpretation of the output in proper context.

Tuesday's event is looking incredibly tame compared to 48 hrs ago. Ive yet to review the other models, but GFS shows very little shower activity away from immediate coastal areas, and even then it doesnt look heavy.

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Tuesday's event is looking incredibly tame compared to 48 hrs ago. Ive yet to review the other models, but GFS shows very little shower activity away from immediate coastal areas, and even then it doesnt look heavy.

save yourself the trouble, it looks pants 

https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4/2019/01/20/basis12/ukuk/weas/19012212_2012.gifFWIW.This is the take from Euro4.

12z Tuesday - this is snow lying. 

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Tuesday's event is looking incredibly tame compared to 48 hrs ago. Ive yet to review the other models, but GFS shows very little shower activity away from immediate coastal areas, and even then it doesnt look heavy.

If anything, MetO raw output has upped the risk of snow, rather than have it diminish. One to watch through tomorrow. 

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Tuesday's event is looking incredibly tame compared to 48 hrs ago. Ive yet to review the other models, but GFS shows very little shower activity away from immediate coastal areas, and even then it doesnt look heavy.

This one?

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019012018/30-574UK.GIF?20-18

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019012018/33-574UK.GIF?20-18

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2019012018/36-574UK.GIF?20-18 

 

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The GFS twelve bore still shows snow in many places on Monday night. However, Arpege and ICON both have the rain turning to snow as it moves into northern France, which is quite a common scenario. As I said the other day, Met O text forecasts are usually very closely aligned with Arpege.

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Wednesday 28th Jan 2004. It arrived in the late afternoon here in Cambridge. One of the most memorable weather events for me.  As the cold front arrived it started out as rain, and the temperature was 6C, There were a couple of claps of thunder and the sky turned orange.  The snow arrived suddenly like a wall of white. The temperature dropped 5 or 6 degrees in a matter of minutes.

There's quite a nice video here.

Did you take the video? - a great capture/footage all in space of 15 mins! Enjoyed watching it, would have been even more enjoyable if it was daytime. I just love seeing rain turn to snow! Amazing meteorological transitional phenomena - just wondering if the video footage was prepared specially for that thundersnow' event on 28th Jan 2004, I knew it was a weekday! - I think if I remember it was not heavy enough the precipitation here in the SW but we did see a rain to snow event that evening, but not to your scale in the south east and home counties! Do you think we could see a 'thundersnow' event Monday night into Tuesday? - Let's hope we see more of those freak' thundersnow' events! Nice how it caught people by surprise too! - That sort of weather was more typical for mid western states and in the USA. Hope we see more of those convective wintry freak rare thundersnow events in the days or coming weeks ahead! Makes meteorology more exciting than this boring mild damp dross we have all been experiencing of late! Besides how often do you get thunder and lightning with snow? When you think of it you think of high humidity and very warm hot air in the summer etc. 

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I think a combination of the split vortex and low solar HP forcing will be the engines to deliver the rest of winter?

The models will try and figure it all but they will not model the loss of PV ( failure to downwell and machinations as it tries to reform prior to final warming takes place) and the propensity for N.Atlantic blocking.

In all probability we will sit through the rest of winter unscathed as both E.Seaboard U.S. and Central/Southern Europe take reloading Arctic Plunge after reloading Arctic Plunge.

We either see transient NW driven cold/wet snow or the S.E./E tap into continental cold as long as the feed lasts but I think we have seen our 'pattern' and know no reason why it will not continue in this rut?

If I'm proved right then summer will be a blast......an oven blast......

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Tuesday's event is looking incredibly tame compared to 48 hrs ago. Ive yet to review the other models, but GFS shows very little shower activity away from immediate coastal areas, and even then it doesnt look heavy.

This westerly always looked tame. It is a diverging flow with little to no 'troughyness' contained within it. Hence my 'April' comment yesterday 

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I’m not impressed with the way the mild Saturday is setting up on this run http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_135_1.png

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I’m not impressed with the way the mild Saturday is setting up on this run http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_135_1.png

That HP has slipped about 10o miles to the west has it not!? all you need now is for that LP to the east to sink southwards!

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That HP has slipped about 10o miles to the west has it not!? all you need now is for that LP to the east to sink southwards!

 

channel low in the making

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I’m not impressed with the way the mild Saturday is setting up on this run http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_135_1.png

anyone would think you were being sarcastic 

 

anyone would think you were being sarcastic 

That's milder than average temps of us in the south!

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That's average temps of us in the south!

 

stop being angry will probably change again!!

 

 

stop being angry will probably change again!!

Indeed. A week is a long time in weather too. I would be surprised if the 00z model suite reflect this op run , but then again who knows!

 

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stop being angry will probably change again!!

next Saturday starts off mild for the south:

 

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