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The cold was always forecast for the middle January onwards, as is highlighted in the extended outlook from the 1st of January

“UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 30 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with perhaps heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These conditions may then continue to the end of the month, but some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.”

Considering the timescale and model uncertainty that was a pretty good call (including the low level snow there has been in parts of the north).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I was following up the point the OP made about the sharp temperature gradient just off the coast of Newfoundland, when I said it wasn't that different to the 0Z, rather than considering our own neck of the woods.

Originally Posted by: jhall 

What we want is for that frontal system on Monday night into Tuesday is to stall so the colder air can undercut this and turn any rain to snow more quicker. I guess that we would also need the precipitation to be more intense too for this to happen. Not quite the thundersnow we had back end of Jan 2004 or was in 2003? I remember end of Jan (either 03 or 04 when there was a thundersnow event for the south!? Pretty sure it was on a Monday night!? Can anyone remember this? Could this event Monday night into Tuesday be a thundersnow event?

We had temps of 5c and then temps fell in rain and rain turned to snow and then the snow became power dry as temperatures fell to -2c behind the front. The snow started to stick too and then freeze! I think it was on 28th Jan 2003 or 2004 - strange how I remember the date but not the year ha! Does anyone remember this event? Well

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

What we want is for that frontal system on Monday night into Tuesday is to stall so the colder air can undercut this and turn any rain to snow more quicker. I guess that we would also need the precipitation to be more intense too for this to happen. Not quite the thundersnow we had back end of Jan 2004 or was in 2003? I remember end of Jan (either 03 or 04 when there was a thundersnow event for the south!? Pretty sure it was on a Monday night!? Can anyone remember this? Could this event Monday night into Tuesday be a thundersnow event?

We had temps of 5c and then temps fell in rain and rain turned to snow and then the snow became power dry as temperatures fell to -2c behind the front. The snow started to stick too and then freeze! I think it was on 28th Jan 2003 or 2004 - strange how I remember the date but not the year ha! Does anyone remember this event? Well

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Yes, the ECM is the sort of sequence that downgrades both in upper temps and synoptics nearer the time, with the Azores High ending up playing much more of a role than progged at this stage.

I'm afraid after the Northern blocking failure of the NWP we are now left with the crumbs of this.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire