indeed Zub but I do think we may see a little of the white stuff down here from that, anyway set looks cold at the surface 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

The extreme cold coming off the eastern seaboard will fire up the atlantic and probably flatten the pattern

Yes it was, glad someone remembers.  Nothing has changed including the need to cling to fantasy charts out in FI.  Get 8 hours of one page post, then a little change and all hell is breaking loose.  It's still only January, loads to play for.  

Get your heating fixed Geoff hope you have been cold today without it in a nice way

That's the 0Z run. The 12Z isn't that different, and looks like this. I like the suggestion of WAA up the west coast of Greenland.

It looks like a very marked cold front rather than just shower activity, so I don't think what you say necessarily applies in this case.

Looks better here uppers about-7

it is but zub is right on his comment, white stuff on back edge

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0

I was following up the point the OP made about the sharp temperature gradient just off the coast of Newfoundland, when I said it wasn't that different to the 0Z, rather than considering our own neck of the woods.

Yes, the ECM is the sort of sequence that downgrades both in upper temps and synoptics nearer the time, with the Azores High ending up playing much more of a role than progged at this stage.

I'm afraid after the Northern blocking failure of the NWP we are now left with the crumbs of this.

I think the SSW certainly changed the course of this winter from mid Dec to present. EC46, met updates and recent model output lends us to believe the strat downwelling will be worth sacrificing over half the winter for, but with everyones patience close to breaking point after repeated false dawns and winter nirvana type synoptics always in the distance anything less than a prolonged ( 2 to 4 weeks) cold, very cold spell will be a big disappointment.

Looks very much like both continents can and are going to get a slice of the cake.  How often does that happen.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref 

Ah right. Not sure how that happened?  

Cant you pair get a room together so you can share your pessimisms in private .

Read the met update ...yes winter is delayed this week but it is coming and when it does i expect it will be severe.

I've not given up on snow here on Monday night into Tuesday.

BBC and Met Office aren't enthusiastic, and it could well be one of those annoying set ups where you need >200m altitude so it's just slush or worse here, but we'll see.

[quote=DPower;1076145]Pretty underwhelming ouput this evening considering strat forcing potential post t168. Plenty of time for the input to change over the coming week to something a lot more potent hopefully. Perhaps I'm setting the bar to high but am expecting much better than mediocre northerlies all things considered.
I think the SSW certainly changed the course of this winter from mid Dec to present. EC46, met updates and recent model output lends us to believe the strat downwelling will be worth sacrificing over half the winter for, but with everyones patience close to breaking point after repeated false dawns and winter nirvana type synoptics always in the distance anything less than a prolonged ( 2 to 4 weeks) cold, very cold spell will be a big disappointment

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As a point of note ....only 2 out 3 ssw's deliver a colder than average setup....

To be fair the METO have been saying it will get very in the extended forecast since December and.....it never quite arrives!

It could really be as simple as that.

at least we know for a fact this has taken place.

What we want is for that frontal system on Monday night into Tuesday is to stall so the colder air can undercut this and turn any rain to snow more quicker. I guess that we would also need the precipitation to be more intense too for this to happen. Not quite the thundersnow we had back end of Jan 2004 or was in 2003? I remember end of Jan (either 03 or 04 when there was a thundersnow event for the south!? Pretty sure it was on a Monday night!? Can anyone remember this? Could this event Monday night into Tuesday be a thundersnow event?

We had temps of 5c and then temps fell in rain and rain turned to snow and then the snow became power dry as temperatures fell to -2c behind the front. The snow started to stick too and then freeze! I think it was on 28th Jan 2003 or 2004 - strange how I remember the date but not the year ha! Does anyone remember this event? Well

N

The cold was always forecast for the middle January onwards, as is highlighted in the extended outlook from the 1st of January

“UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 30 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with perhaps heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By the third week of January there is then an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. These conditions may then continue to the end of the month, but some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.”

Considering the timescale and model uncertainty that was a pretty good call (including the low level snow there has been in parts of the north).

It seems strangely appropriate that the word after "very" should have somehow gone AWOL from your post. :)

Quite

Yet more eye candy at 10 days. Wake me up when we see some eye candy charts at 5 days - then I will take note. All we have been doing so far this winter is chasing, chasing never catching - the winter hare this season is too fast for our tired old dogs to catch.