Gosh ! 

 

Not bad eh! I'm sure the 6z GFS Para has it nailed on.

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 Not bad eh! I'm sure the 6z GFS Para has it nailed on.

Pretty good AP. Its been so long since we've had a wintry January its easy to forget how cold the surface can get once the atlantic gets cut off with a bit of snow on the ground. 

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Not bad eh! I'm sure the 6z GFS Para has it nailed on.

 

bUT THEN it shows a return to milder weather in latter stages of FI and pressure falling over the northern latitudes!?

But -10c by 1800pm over many parts of the midlands is bitterly cold colder than last years feast from east.

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Further to my post earlier regarding the strat profile and i've done a little digging. Comparing the gfs to the ecm on the Berlin site they could not be more different. The ecm is now finally showing the 30mb zonal winds going negative from day 7 with excellent profile at day 10. Even 50mb goes negative at day 9. 10mb finally goes positive at day 10.
I suspect this is just a typical wobble by the gfs,if so we should see some much more amplified charts again from the model in the near future.

I have a feeling we’re in for a crap back tracking 12z from gfs.

UKMO very good this evening👍 144 chart is rather chilly
Martin

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UKMO very good this evening👍 144 chart is rather chilly
Martin

Yes , with a lobe of blocking to the North & North East the 168 chart would be very cold at the surface-

GFS has trended to the Euro but not quite-

GEM 192 ( similar profiles to UKMO 144 ) has a big snow event-

 

Yes , with a lobe of blocking to the North & North East the 168 chart would be very cold at the surface-

GFS has trended to the Euro but not quite-

GEM 192 ( similar profiles to UKMO 144 ) has a big snow event-

 

Yes very good GEM looks stunning at 240h

 

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Very happy with this afternoons GEM and UKMO,  GFS poor early but looks to be setting up another day 10 + special.

 

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ukmo very close 120 sub -6 low filling and sliding very very close we dont need massive 850 there

 

Yes , with a lobe of blocking to the North & North East the 168 chart would be very cold at the surface-

GFS has trended to the Euro but not quite-

GEM 192 ( similar profiles to UKMO 144 ) has a big snow event-

Very happy with this afternoons GEM and UKMO,  GFS poor early but looks to be setting up another day 10 + special.

 

Indeed

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The T850 mean has certainly shifted up significantly since the 0z after being consistently flat around -5 for a few runs. Quite a few milder members in there.

Yes the enthusiasm is still there but no question the 850 ensemble mean has risen in the last few runs. It's going to get cold but I would still say there is a lot of conjecture as to how cold. I've seen better situations than this fail before now.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0

 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK12_42_2.png 

The 12z UKMO and GEM seem a bit better than the GFS 12z operational run but we will get a better picture when the ensemble data, rest of the GFSP and ECM runs are out later.

I have noticed a few times that while GFS op runs are good at picking up patterns at a long way out when the time period approaches it seems to be less consistent on the details from run to run or day to day. 

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Your thoughts Steve ukmo

 

 

Yes , with a lobe of blocking to the North & North East the 168 chart would be very cold at the surface-

GFS has trended to the Euro but not quite-

GEM 192 ( similar profiles to UKMO 144 ) has a big snow event-

I know it’s only a model, but sub 500 dam air over Manchester at +264 hours is rather on low side

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0 

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I know it’s only a model, but sub 500 dam air over Manchester at +264 hours is rather on low side

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0

Thickness ~520 DAM

I know it’s only a model, but sub 500 dam air over Manchester at +264 hours is rather on low side

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=0

Thats the 500hPa height, the 500-1000hPa thickness value is around 528dam at that time point for Birmingham based on that chart. 

Edit: Sorry I got confused as you posted a 312hr chart, as Steve says the 500-1000hPa value us around 520dam at 264hr.

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Your thoughts Steve ukmo

 

 

Definite snow event for the North especially with a bit of elevation-

Its a pity no 168 chart, but the wedge of High pressure would see that low exit around IOW & deeper

cold coming back SE - similar to ECM 00z

We know that the GFS has an Eastwards bias, particularly in situations like this so let's see what the ECM does later.

 

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