This is forecast at all levels.

Up to and including yesterdays 12z the profile looked great. I can understand the lowest levels being influenced by the trop pattern but to see such changes at the 30mb level as early as t200 onwards does not look good.The down welling and split vortices should be looking stronger with time not the other way around.

Some to definitely keep an eye on.

Signs from the GEFS06z that the cold period is shaping out towards the end of the month. That goes against some recent updates and the ECM46 10/01.

The blanket "Scotland will do well out of this" comments are not wholly correct.  Parts of Scotland will, the same as parts of the rest of UK.  Edinburgh and the  parts of the East coast does not usually get snow out of Northerly events and even NWly can lead to showers but often little appreciable precipitation. 

That said, I'n not complaining about the outlook at all and I can't recall seeing a set up like this in recent memory, with lows diving SE across the country.

The T850 mean has certainly shifted up significantly since the 0z after being consistently flat around -5 for a few runs. Quite a few milder members in there.

Is this what they call a 'snow bomb'? (the latest idiotic, reductive media soundbite) 

Indeed. I would want to see it repeated several times before being confident that a shift to a less cold position is starting to emerge. The next ECM46 will be interesting too. 

To be fair the forecasts are more confident about the snow potential for parts of the north and that is reflected in the ensembles

Yes I've noticed since yesterday that the ensemble mean has been consistently ticking up right at the end. I suppose that is just reversion to the mean due to scatter though.

Just catching up with the GFS Para 6z its easily the coldest run of the winter brutal cold in the day 10 to 16 region . Goes cold as early as day 5 as well. Loads of snow which causes the low temps later on.

We need to keep a check on these T2m temps. There appears to be a slight uptick at the end.

Really ?

Have a look at the 2m temps day 10 onwards 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&time=312&lid=PARA&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Gosh ! 

Not bad eh! I'm sure the 6z GFS Para has it nailed on.

Pretty good AP. Its been so long since we've had a wintry January its easy to forget how cold the surface can get once the atlantic gets cut off with a bit of snow on the ground. 

bUT THEN it shows a return to milder weather in latter stages of FI and pressure falling over the northern latitudes!?

But -10c by 1800pm over many parts of the midlands is bitterly cold colder than last years feast from east.

I suspect this is just a typical wobble by the gfs,if so we should see some much more amplified charts again from the model in the near future.

Martin

Yes , with a lobe of blocking to the North & North East the 168 chart would be very cold at the surface-

GFS has trended to the Euro but not quite-

GEM 192 ( similar profiles to UKMO 144 ) has a big snow event-

Yes very good GEM looks stunning at 240h

Very happy with this afternoons GEM and UKMO,  GFS poor early but looks to be setting up another day 10 + special.

ukmo very close 120 sub -6 low filling and sliding very very close we dont need massive 850 there