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Not sure I like ECM this morning.Looks like the Azores high wants to hang around like an unwanted neighbour spoiling the party.
Yes I would like to see that high pressure heading north a bit on the ECM post 240.
It's very close to a proper beast though would expect to see some perhaps many easterlies in the ensembles . But we can't trust any output beyond day 7 at the moment its all over the place. But most lead to cold which is good.
A positive set of overnight runs, no clear path to where we are headed synoptically but hopefully we can see blocking/wedges in the right areas.
Steve - as you are on here ATM - no I'm not Easton luna Boys on the other side.
ECM has trended colder - especially over the core of England - could be the difference between rain & snow-
ECM mean out to day 10 pretty solid with cold all the way, more energy sliding SE on the last day- more opportunity for snow - atlantic block heading NNE
Lol - are you sure 😂
I agree. The generally colder outlook is maintained in the models this morning, with a London 850 mean below -5 for 5 days. There are repeated colder intrusions in the current GFS Op, parallel and Control and ECM but the real cold air keeps being cut of by mobile HPs. Interesting tendency for LPs to slip SEwards is still there (persistently in the GFSP) but the larger scale feel of movement at the surface is a W-E one. It does allow temporary setups for N and even NEly intrusions in our latitudes, and at the far end of the GFSP there s a hint of an easterly setup.
ECM 00z was off the scale at day 10.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=00&lg=850&lglocation=london
The ECM mean at day 10 is the best ive seen for snowy slider type scenarios but we just can't trust any output at the moment its extremely volatile .
Sums it up well.
ECM has trended colder - especially over the core of England - could be the difference between rain & snow-ECM mean out to day 10 pretty solid with cold all the way, more energy sliding SE on the last day- more opportunity for snow - atlantic block heading NNELol - are you sure 😂
ECM ensembles suggest most are synoptically dfferent than the OP by the end though not necessarily in a bad way.
ECM 00z was off the scale at day 10.https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=00&lg=850&lglocation=london
Some might call that an outlier, Brian personally prefer the term trendsetter.. lol
Yep, I'll go along with that Ian. The GfS throws out another alternative (but not pleasing on the eye) this morning seeing the U.K. engulfed in milder uppers, something it hasn’t shown for the last several days. Eyes down for completely different outcomes for the rest of the day.😂
The GFS 00z was generally pretty cold?
Re. The ECM ensembles, I think Ian’s comment is fair enough as the op was actually above the mean in the latter stages of the run for many more northern parts.
While we wait for the UK ensembles, just across the water in the SW of the Netherlands (not De Bilt!) we can see some interesting clustering going on:https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagse/?type=eps_pluim&r=zuidwest
There's a signature of "diving lows", as we've seen in all the models recently. By the 19th a minority cluster develops, showing an easterly influence. A second wave of easterly members (which are instead showing another "diving low" during that first cluster's easterly) then appears around the 24th - this time with far more members.In my view this would add some weight to the thoughts of a series of "diving lows" followed by an easterly, albeit an eventual easterly is still far from certain!
I reckon it's not an outlier. Those SD charts, as I've said before, are quite deceptive for those who aren't aware of the difference between standard deviation and an outlier.
The GFS 00z was generally pretty cold?Re. The ECM ensembles, I think Ian’s comment is fair enough as the op was actually above the mean in the latter stages of the run for many more northern parts.
The opp appears experdiential
quote=Retron;1071107]
The coming cold from either Arctic or Polar Continental sources, (Scandi high or diving low created), is now more certain than Ipswich Town's relegation, but hope flickers (home to Rotherham)! I'll be putting my money on a snowy 23rd rather than a Tractor Boy triumph, but may be January will be as bountiful as Christmas!!
The 00z ECM mean in the extended range doesn't get the daytime high much above 3c on the London graph
The ENS mean shows 2cm of snow in the extended range on the London graph