A well- made point.

With that healthy clustering, those few high-enders skew the mean away from what would be -8 around 21st-22nd.

A daft outlier (say a silly +15) would tug the mean higher all on its own.

I'm still impressed by a fairly bunched bunch at 10 days. 

Snow rows are fun but don't lead me in- classic Jan 84 stuff down here- mP air and the odd shower on several days but a month to forget (unless you hated it, like me!)

We don’t need to cherry pick when the overall output is unchanged. I have rarely seen an ensemble set as consistent as the GEFS has been over the last ten days. Here is the one for this location. The change to more unsettled and colder conditions has been within the same 24hr period since it first became evident. 

What is not consistent is a strong signal for prolonged wintry weather, deep cold and widespread snow. There is a possibility for that but it is much less certain.

There might be hints of an attempt late in the ECM- N of Iceland.

Slightly off topic but Sat 21st-Monday 23rd Jan 84 was classic for the midlands... 14 inches 

As it has done for about a week now! In Reading, it seems it’s always snowy at 240 hours...

Brighton GEFS ensemble temps definitely less consistent than Aberdeen. If that means anything, it suggests cold air taking up residence over Scotland, with occasional disturbances pushing some of it further south

GFSP 00z looking very progressive. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx?run=00&charthour=312&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

My views on the outlook remain unchanged. 

Wrt the GEFS one point to remember is those milder "bumps" usually appear at relatively short notice as the runs begin to phase with each other. I'm still not seeing enough big dippers or trenchers to think we're heading into a freeze style set-up. Cold/er incursions continue to look likely but the Azores high hasn't left the game and the much touted Scandi high hasn't yet turned up. 

ecm is actually much colder than it looks at first glance

Quite cold and snowy EC ens for 22-26 Jan.

ECM op looks  changeable and quite cold. ENS less keen to drop that cold bomb on 19/01. Presumably a lot of runs take it east of the UK.

Agreed.  The Brighton snow row figure has gone down from the 6Z yesterday (61) to 55 despite an additional data point 8 being added for the 27th.

Therefore for the period 17-26th, the snow rows have dropped from 61 to 47 in less than a day.

Us down here need to see something more sustained and ideally from the east.

Steady as she goes for wintry potential on northern hills. Messy picture elsewhere, don’t discount the Azores HP from crashing the party.

Further heavy snowfall for the Alps just where it’s not needed.

Quite; some odd analysis by some.

ECM 00z looks OK. First cold plunge now at Day 6: marginal for lowland in the south but clearly potential.

Parameters to the rear of the trough are the right side of marginal, certainly with some elevation.

Then at Day 10, an unusual chart with 500-1,000 hPa thickness values in the low 520s for most. Obviously modification at lower levels due to the long fetch over the Atlantic, giving 850s of -5c to -6c, but clearly with potential.

Edit: just looked at Weather.us and Day 6 brings snow for the north; Day 10 brings a wintry mix of rain and snow for the east, north of London.

From a NIMBY point of view, and speaking from a London perspective in particular. The latest charts are somewhat frustrating.

The output suggests a lot of luck for us down this way - and usually this end is tears.

Still - the weather will do what it wants and I remain hopeful

This looks like one of those spells where there will some big winners who hit the snow jackpot, and a fair few losers who end up snowless and seething.

I don't have much hope MBY (for lying snow, probably see some falling), although further north & east of this region could do much better, plus obviously areas with altitude.

Scotland, Pennine areas, the NE and E (unsure how far south) prime spots. 

I foresee many toys being ejected from many prams. 

A mean of around -6 towards the latter part of Jan would be feeling raw though? Certainly some of the coldest weather we'd have experienced this winter so far

You and I know your post is a wind up and not true, a better way to word it would be 'snow for northern hills, snow at times for lower level Northern areas but more uncertain further South, and that is of course just for the medium term, longer term continued potential for more sustained cold and Snow.

Much colder de bilt ens,  sorry, can't post charts on phone 

what is FACTUALLY incorrect in anything that post says? 

Please be as specific as possible in your reply before attacking other members. 

FWIW, I never get the impression that Jacko is a wind-up merchant(unlike one or two others). I think that he is conservative about forecasting cold/snow, just as some of us are optimistic about it. While I think that your analysis is probably closer to what will happen, it's good to have posters coming from different angles(like Jacko). It might get a bit boring otherwise.

I would like to hear Retron's views given that we may be on the cusp of something interesting - have always appreciated his level-headed take on things. 

The 850s were lower than that at the weekend, and it was chilly but not notably so. Of course, that was more HP based weather so not directly comparable. 

The GFSP is again better than the op run and manages to give almost the whole country a covering of snow, albeit only for a short while in the south before the next warm sector arrives. 

Not so much the Beast from the East as the (Temporary) Guest from the West...