The Weather Outlook

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fairweather
11 January 2019 11:00:42

I'm old enough! I always thought it was because the roads used to be spread with a particularly nasty brown rock salt.

Originally Posted by: DickyBill 

Of course! Yes , remember that was the reason now. Impure rock salt. Might be the same now if we ever get six inches of snow down here!

S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
11 January 2019 11:03:46

In a weeks time today would be a good one to look back at the posts. There is consistency that by then we should be in some sort of cold spell. If we are not and people are talking about the first week of February then I think the models will have been proved to have led us up the garden path.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
kmoorman
11 January 2019 11:07:49

In a weeks time today would be a good one to look back at the posts. There is consistency that by then we should be in some sort of cold spell. If we are not and people are talking about the first week of February then I think the models will have been proved to have led us up the garden path.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

 

Yes, by then (if the models are correct) some people will be about to see some snow...  

Looking at the ensemble plot for Pressure, it's clear there's a little way to go to get agreement (this is for near me)

Still a lot of scatter past day 6-7

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

marco 79
11 January 2019 11:10:31
Latest Op is still insistent on taking the Jet south...Azores high looks less prevalent in throwing up its ridging to the UK on this run as the orientation changes and pulls it out into mid atlantic....But the devil is in the detail..
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
Gandalf The White
11 January 2019 11:13:29

This shows how the persistence of the Azores High and a lack of Northern blocking can reduce the longevity of any cold conditions.  This looks very promising, and would of course, bring cold and snow to many. However, instead of building, the high then drains away into the Azores High and the pattern reverts to the default.

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 

The problem, of course, is the strength of the jet stream which flattens the ridge; not the Azores high.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



tallyho_83
11 January 2019 11:19:08

A week today we see rain Friday night pushing southwards but turning to sleet and snow if this verifies:

Can't see max and min temp - it doesn't change your temp chart map...? Brian? Shows same temps for max and min?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
11 January 2019 11:21:53
Meanwhile the 06z run is starting to look more blocked in FI and the Atlantic is slowing down gradually with a weakening or slight retrogression of Azores HP - now let's see ensembles.
Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Arbroath 1320
11 January 2019 11:27:33

Meanwhile the 06z run is starting to look more blocked in FI and the Atlantic is slowing down gradually with a weakening or slight retrogression of Azores HP - now let's see ensembles.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Yes, a one off or a pattern changer I wonder? Time will tell.

Kenmore, Highland Perthshire, GGTTH
Heavy Weather 2013
11 January 2019 11:33:57

There are some good runs in the ensembles.

There is quite a bit of support for 06z evolution and dare I say, some trough disruption appearing also.

I think we could see a good set when they come out. 

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

kmoorman
11 January 2019 11:45:32

 

The problem, of course, is the strength of the jet stream which flattens the ridge; not the Azores high.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

 

Yes, of course.  The position of the High is a symptom.

Lots of options in the ensemble that give a VERY different outcome.  Pert 4 looks very nice.

Edit to add:  With the Azores High still in place! 

 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Saint Snow
11 January 2019 11:47:15

 Pert 4 looks very nice.

 

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 

 

And the award for 'Understatement of the Year" goes to...

 

It is a thing of absolute beauty.

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

kmoorman
11 January 2019 11:49:47

And the award for 'Understatement of the Year" goes to...

It is a thing of absolute beauty.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

And the best bit is the potential AFTER 384 hours.  Colder air to the East and an undercutting low.

 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Rob K
11 January 2019 11:51:12

GFSP is a better run for the south - and puts a decent blob of lying snow right over me! Only East Anglia is left high and dry...

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

tallyho_83
11 January 2019 11:54:10

 

 

And the award for 'Understatement of the Year" goes to...

 

It is a thing of absolute beauty.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

hOW DO YOU GET THE ANIMATION LIKE THAT?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Heavy Weather 2013
11 January 2019 11:54:51

Average at 276hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_276_1.png

GFS saying I don't have a clue 

In all seriousness though; I do feel this is a step forward towards pressure rising over scandy.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

kmoorman
11 January 2019 11:57:32

 

hOW DO YOU GET THE ANIMATION LIKE THAT?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

 

On a page like this:  

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204&runpara=1

 

Click on the GIF icon top right.  It will create a pop up window to allow you to select your start and end hours, frames per second (I went for 1) and the pause at the end.

Hit Generate and it will create a link you can copy.

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Whiteout
11 January 2019 12:04:03

Snow rows up to 78   Even Brighton is up to 76

Home/Work - Dartmoor

240m/785 ft asl

kmoorman
11 January 2019 12:04:42
Snow row for Brighton up from 57 to 76 this run, so a big improvement down here.

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Whiteout
11 January 2019 12:08:21

Snow row for Brighton up from 57 to 76 this run, so a big improvement down here.

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 

GFS finally sniffing out the effects of the SSW

Home/Work - Dartmoor

240m/785 ft asl

tallyho_83
11 January 2019 12:09:15

Average at 276hrs

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_276_1.png

GFS saying I don't have a clue 

In all seriousness though; I do feel this is a step forward towards pressure rising over scandy.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Indeed - average ensembles from N. Pole view down at 300/306:

Quite a southerly tracking jet eh?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Surrey John
11 January 2019 12:14:39

Snow row for Brighton up from 57 to 76 this run, so a big improvement down here.

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 

 

Can you please remind me, how high can the snow row get, is it 23 x 16 = 368

 

 

 

Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire

35m ASL

kmoorman
11 January 2019 12:25:09

Snow row for Brighton up from 57 to 76 this run, so a big improvement down here.

Originally Posted by: kmoorman 

 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

Heavy Weather 2013
11 January 2019 12:26:51

Interesting reading this morning, some very sensible fact based comments and some very wishful thinking comments.  Many excellent posters who contribute sound comment based on the facts of what is being shown with a little license to interpret effect.  Overall the trend seems to be looking good for cold/snow lovers, but its the detail that eludes us right now, and that is how it is and always will be.

four days ago two weeks ahead were completely different to that same period now, four days ago today is exactly what was being forecast as is the weekend, beyond that it is just starting to take a shape that promise a point of certainty.

The SSW, currently doing its magic and holding steady the reversal for at least another 10 days, JC (and I do believe this bloke probably knows what he is talking about) is suggesting that due to other mitigating factors to complex and detailed to list here will likely impact Western Europe/UK around the 24th Jan.

The first effects are starting to appear soon after January 10th where ensemble forecasts from both global models ECMWF and GFS are in quite good agreement on a persisting extensive upper ridge / high pressure system over the northern Atlantic and the Arctic region. To the east and south, troughs will be meridionally pushed into Europe and result in much colder weather than average for a large part of our continent.

I did read somewhere on here over the last few days that the effects of an SSW are factored into models prior to and during the SSW. GEFS has been simulating a more classic   response by creating a high over the Artic region and bringing a colder airmass into Europe.  BTW the current cold outbreak in Eastern Europe/turkey has nothing to do with it.

Not every stratospheric warming event is the same, and each case has its own specific development and integration into the troposphere.  apparently, the best way to monitor the SSW impact is with ensemble forecasts.

So all looking good for cold /snow in the midterm and possibly beyond.

Edit. Spent ages writing it then blog closed. Cut and pasted to new one. 🤪

Originally Posted by: Phil24 

Really good post. Thanks 

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

kmoorman
11 January 2019 12:28:38

Can you please remind me, how high can the snow row get, is it 23 x 16 = 368

Originally Posted by: Surrey John 

 

It should be, but I think it's out of 20.. at least the Meteociel version goes up in 5% increments. 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)

Work: Canary Wharf, London

Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
11 January 2019 12:30:09

.

 

Hey Brian, it is time for a new MOD thread.

Get it sorted. Thanks..

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

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