It looks like Thursday will be the start of the colder feel in the south the London ECM graph goes from around 8c at noon on Wednesday to around 4.5c at noon on Thursday

I think you're in a better chance position that I.

With lows sliding NW-SE, there's going to be milder sectors to the west of the centres; it's a question of how far east across the UK the lows track. At present I fear MBY is generally going to be just too far west. I'm envisioning a track roughly running from Barrow to Manchester to Nottingham to Cambridge to Colchester. East of that with a much better chance, especially the further north you are. That'd put you (and Scotland, NE England, most of Cumbria and Yorks, Lincs) in prime territory. 

But then, much can and will change between now and then - for the better OR for the worst.

Before then plenty of interest in charts.

Martin

unless a stonker of an Easterly shows up on the op run will not be considered by most. Think this is our most likely route to sustained cold - all other snowfalls a bonus. ECM shows to me how an E/NE could well eventually set in

Yes, I think that is about right as things stand. Snow in the south used to be more common from these type of synoptics but that one degree of warming makes all the difference although even in the sixties and seventies would still tend to be a few hours of heavy snow turning to rain and slush. In fact is anyone old enough to remember slush? Six inches of snow followed by grey misty thaw leaving a rust brown mess. I wonder if a lot of that colouration was caused by air pollution back in the day.

The GFSP does indulge that sinking low, bringing an easterly; sadly the HP that follows it eases out the very cold 850s but the uppers generally continue to look marginally cold, and it's often the margins that bring the wintry precipitation.

06z is yet again has a different evolution up to 189hrs.

This becoming really painful

No big freeze up yet, but looks quite snowy to me with a bit of altitude. ECM ENS put my area at freezing or below (mean ENS 2m t) from ~ 22nd and close to it from 20th.

I wouldn't be too excited yet if I was lowland UK though.

Another GFS classic mega-low in the Atlantic. I tend to switch off once those appear as it seems to be what the model does when it's all out of ideas.

At 213hrs GFS 06z attempting to build something  over scandy. But the jet looks too strong.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_216_1.png

The 6Z Op is quite different from the 0Z even as early as 156-162 hours, with low far less of a slider, which introduces a full warm sector over the UK.  The later development is completely different as well, as it puts us back into mobile NW winds. 

yes a real messy picture. It might be the case that the spell could be a classic event for the north whereas further south elevation will be required. It’s a very fluid situation, though temperatures do look like falling at the back end of next week countrywide. Cold wet and miserable in one place yet just a few miles away with elevation and it’s a winter wonderland.

central Europe in the meantime looks the place to be- some very heavy snowfall on the cards. The Alps look close to being in a state of emergency if some of those runs come off 

Interesting for some. This does offer some potential.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_231_2.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2019011106/gfsnh-0-228.png?6 

JFF - Look at temp gradient esp for east coast of N. America at night many states from Florida to Maine, Mass to even Nova Scotia seeing nighttime temps of 12c or so and +5 to +10c uppers:

USA hasn't had much if any snow either esp NYC in comparison to last year. Not one blizzard or nor easter so far! They had more snow back in November. We are not the only one suffering here in the UK .

Back to us - the warmer sector is being squeezed!

In almost 48hrs we go from this:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_234_2.png

to this

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_288_2.png

That will all change if GFS is right, as the PV moves eastwards. The 850s in New York City plunge from +6C at 216hrs to -20C a day later at 240hrs.

Meanwhile for us the GFS sets up a transient easterly as the high pressure topples over the UK. Cold air is already in place so even a short easterly could deliver there.

Met Office seasonal ENSEMBLE Mean maps have been updated: This corresponds with the CFSv2'S OUTLOOK For a blocked Feb too as well.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Today the Met Office Glosea 5 has been updated - take a look at this:

Look at all that northern Blocking? - My guess is that this Azores HP will retrogress NW wards and center it'self over Greenland.

Very strong signal for northern blocking now!! - Sorry if this should be in the Media Trend but it's just been released so,,,!? Wanted to share.

Look at Pressure charts:

Perhaps as good as it get's if you want a cold and snowy Feb?

Another miserable spring in store, then?

Inter run consistency with GFS is appalling at the moment.

But 06z was interesting and fund from 200hrs onwards

Well look at 3-5 months pressure charts and the northern blocking reduces thus most of the blocking will occur in Feb this means?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Just love this:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Temps @ 850 Hpa going 0.5c below average:

Wish this could be broken down into month by month so at least we would know when the main blocking' and cold is? Hope it's not April... but oh well! It's blocked!

This shows how the persistence of the Azores High and a lack of Northern blocking can reduce the longevity of any cold conditions.  This looks very promising, and would of course, bring cold and snow to many. However, instead of building, the high then drains away into the Azores High and the pattern reverts to the default.