I think Norwich went from 98 to 136

It is 23. Just check out the Greenland and Moscow ensemble plots

This should be now closed Brian subject to any Moderator accepting it to close.

Please now officially accept the new MOD thread.

🤣

Lol.  I really do want the UK to see some changing weather pattern but then as we get closer it gets downgraded, so many days we get excited.  But as they say on here- maybe this winter might be better than the ones that refuse to make us believe in the chatter we make of Models forecasts..

Normally, Brian warns us in advance that an MOD thread is about to close and then starts the next one, once he does that. Since you have already started the next new thread, you have at least saved him from having to do this part of that task although I'm sure that he or one of his team of mods will get round to closing this thread before too long.

The mean isn't really of any help once the ensemble run starts to offer up clusters of solutions.  If you had one cluster showing a high of 1040mb over Scandinavia and another showing a trough averaging 980mb the mean would show a slack area around 1,010mb, rendering it meaningless.

Seems pointless to me, these threads can go up to 99 pages easily enough!

Anyway, there's actually not been much change model-wise for the past few days. It still looks like a series of lows travelling ESE'wards or SE'wards over or close to the UK later next week, with an increasing risk of some seriously cold air being dragged in behind.

It's becoming increasinly likely that even down here in the SE we'll see some of the white stuff, albeit in a transitory "fall then melt" scenario rather than the "Beast" we saw last year.

It's refreshing to see a pattern setting up that isn't likely to be over before it started and I'll be interested to see whether the longer-term charts as shown by ECM come to fruition - for if they do, the likelihood of an easterly blast into February would increase markedly. The ECM-46 has been doggedly showing this for what seems like ages, but it's only 3 weeks since Christmas! Back then the interesting stuff was shown as week 6, it's now week 3 (with weeks 4-6 still showing a cold pattern).

Of course, it's never that straightforward. The SSW (which started on New Year's Day, in the afternoon), is still ongoing and will be for several days yet... until it's over I'd wager the models will still flail around a fair bit!

I think it depends on how you read them and compare them to the long term averages. That chart posted would suggest the lower than normal pressure is more likely than not over the continent at that time frame, which would 'help' to pull in cooler temps from the NW. 

Yes, I agree: there are signs of some longevity to the evolving pattern.

On the SSW, the effects, as you know, continue to influence the troposphere for a couple of months, as I understand it. But this one could produce nothing of huge significance or it could deliver several weeks of very cold weather; nobody knows for certain.

So now we have two open MOD threads lol,

Double the fun 🙂

It is probably wise to let mods take care of the admin though I love LA2B’s enthusiasm

on a model related note the snow rows for Birmingham have increased hugely on this mornings 6Z as compared to yesterday’s 

More were in here. Let's keep going with this one a while longer. A new one can be opened when we hit 60 pages.

That's what can happen if you choose to live in a house without a roof. Or am I taking you too literally? :)

New Year's Day in the afternoon? I',m surprising you don't have it down to the nearest minute. :)

Something similar has happened in reverse, when the winter of 1946-7 was followed by an exceptionally warm and sunny summer.

Some interesting model output over the last 24h with signals of High Level blocking popping up w/b 21 January. Clear disagreement on the longevity of the block between GFS 6z and GFS P 6z in FI but perhaps the start of a trend developing? The 12zs will be particularly interesting today.   

Latest met office text mid term & long looking real tasty. Sorry OT

can’t wait for this evenings output, particularly Ecm

Crucial runs throughout this weekend I feel.

I shall be looking forward to further enhancements on the 06z, which were the best I think we have seen this week in terms of options on the table.

Exciting times 

Yep, agree with you both.  The next few runs will at least give us an idea as to the trend as the models firm up on specific synoptics.  All fascinating stuff. 

Up to 24hrs on the GFS 12z and little change as expected.

The Glosea update and pressure anomaly charts could not look any better if we drew them by hand.

This you mean?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

UK & Ireland the coldest part of Europe! -Soon it's our turn to get some winter?

Temps @ 850 Hpa going 0.5c below average:

Wish this could be broken down into month by month so at least we would know when the main blocking' and cold is? Hope it's not April... but oh well! It's blocked!

Looks promising and if only this could be broken down into monthly periods - but either way looks like the cold will be in Feb more than in March and April but cannot tell!?

btw - i thought there would be a new model output trend?