The Weather Outlook

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Arcus
11 January 2019 15:51:37

12z ICON looks errr..., nasty

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

JACKO4EVER
11 January 2019 16:04:07
Some promising updates today but we now need to see some consistency. Without a doubt it will turn colder towards the end of next week, though the doubts do remain as to wether this will be marginal for snow events down south and away from elevated areas as we progress further into January. I would guess the European models will lead the way, it should make for some fascinating model watching.
Whiteout
11 January 2019 16:19:55

Cracking UKMO .Good start 

Home/Work - Dartmoor

240m/785 ft asl

Heavy Weather 2013
11 January 2019 16:20:28

I think we are in for a good run:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_162_1.png

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Whiteout
11 January 2019 16:35:36

Yes, looking like a cracker Jack run from GFS .

Home/Work - Dartmoor

240m/785 ft asl

Shropshire
11 January 2019 16:40:26

Cracking UKMO .Good start 

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

Poor going forward from T144 though, Azores High moving in and jet going NE.

 

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tallyho_83
11 January 2019 16:43:37

The jet takes a more southerly track every 3 hours from around +198 on the 12z run of the OP GFS:

Our concern is that -25 to -30c over NY and deep cold pole over NE states/Canada??? - may blast up the jet and flatten the ridge or at least could have an effect on our chances of seeing a blocked pattern /high pressure building over Greenland? - will see?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Roonie
11 January 2019 16:44:03

Poor going forward from T144 though, Azores High moving in and jet going NE.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

 

Can you post the chart for that?

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire

Heavy Weather 2013
11 January 2019 16:45:19

Looking great at 240.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

 

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

ballamar
11 January 2019 16:45:42
GFS has been consistent with the date of major pattern change, detail sketchy but confidence on the up. Could be some interesting weather in 10 days!!
Rob K
11 January 2019 16:46:29
Finally a fairly consistent GFS run with the previous op run, at least in the medium to long term.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

David M Porter
11 January 2019 16:46:30

 

Poor going forward from T144 though, Azores High moving in and jet going NE.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Doesn't get in very far though on this chart:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=144&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Rob K
11 January 2019 16:47:37

 

Poor going forward from T144 though, Azores High moving in and jet going NE.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

 I think you mean SE, unless Greece has moved recently?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

doctormog
11 January 2019 16:48:47

 

 

Can you post the chart for that?

Originally Posted by: Roonie 

It’s not dissimilar to previous runs and other models at the same time point. They all go for a few days of milder weather at that point followed by a range of colder options. You won’t get a chart for beyond 144hrs on the UKMO,, it’s just guesswork. Sometimes the 168hr chart is available with a tropics view but that is unavailable due to the ongoing US government shutdown.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Heavy Weather 2013
11 January 2019 16:49:18

In fact. Its remarkable that the 12z is almost identical to the 06z

12z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_276_2.png

06z

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_276_2.png

 

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

David M Porter
11 January 2019 16:50:29

 

 I think you mean SE, unless Greece has moved recently?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Heavy Weather 2013
11 January 2019 16:54:05

As expected things go a bit collapsy into the low res. But I have to say mid term is really starting to get interesting.

Great end to the week. Next ECM

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

ballamar
11 January 2019 16:55:05

 

Poor going forward from T144 though, Azores High moving in and jet going NE.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

 

do you think you jump the gun too soon sometimes? 

Brian Gaze
11 January 2019 16:57:43

New thread at 17:00.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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David M Porter
11 January 2019 16:57:44

 

 

do you think you jump the gun too soon sometimes? 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

It is always best IMO to wait until each & every chart from a given model run has appeared and then comment on what the run shows generally, rather than to speculate as to what a model that only goes as far as 144hrs ahead might show it if went any further ahead.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

doctormog
11 January 2019 17:00:19
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK12_69_2.png  (GFSP)

The significance of this is that it shows the ongoing consistency of the timescale. The trend of continuing cold incursions from the NW is carried on in tjhis op run with a bit more consistency in the details compared with the previous run.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

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