Just a minor point: AFAIK the models still don’t pick up true polar lows until at quite short range because they’re mesoscale features that develop in highly unstable Arctic flows.

ECM 12z ensemble suite for London - 2m temperature:

It’s interesting that even by Boxing Day two distinct clusters are developing, one giving slightly above average temperatures (10-11c) and the other below average (6c). The op starts in the milder group but drops by 28th into the cooler group.

Reasonably consistent with the 00z beyond Day 10 with a clear cooling trend and some cold or very cold options appearing and a near-absence if mild options.

I think you are wishing a bit too much judging from your Freudian slip 

GFS operational 00Z is a snoozefest until the end of the run but then suddenly shows a major northerly incursion from T+360. 

Don't get excited,  'he only does it to annoy because he knows it teases'

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

A ~10% drop isn't minute.

As I say, it is of course your right to ignore what's been shown to you (and backed up with evidence these past few years). If you want to convince people, though, you need to do your own research to back up your views. That's how science works!

You'd best get a move on if you want to start this year, though, as the data loss will kick off in around 24 hours!

GEFS certainly not as good as last nights 

Not too surprised to see this morning's 'snoozefest' (love that term), but expecting a lot of my good friend Philipe-flop to be making a snowing (yes that was a typo - and probably a Freudian slip to boot- LOL), but very interested to see how the end of Dronegate impacts on the model projections for FI.

Yep, I posted the coverage stats last year and don't intend doing it again this year! Anyone that wants to do it, feel free:

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/monitoring/dcover?facets=undefined&time=2018122300,0,2018122300&obs=aircraft&Flag=used

GFS has watered down the deep FI signal for retrogression of our resident HP I see, although there's still a small cluster going for it. The dominant cluster now holds the HP just to the South or South West.

ECM op manages to get the HP over us just far enough North to inject some cooler air although this gets mixed out pretty quick - the HP doesn't sink off on this run though which means the option for it moving further North is there still.

In the meantime dry, average or just above day time temps initially, dropping to maybe slightly below if the air under the HP stagnates. I imagine there will be a fair bit of cloud around so cool days but above average nights seems like a reasonable bet, with little diurnal range. Might get lucky and get some clearer air at times which would lead to frosts for some.

Useable enough I guess and still potential for something more interesting from a coldies POV down the line

The projected SSW looks on track on this morning’s update and I guess it is just a waiting game. Having a quiet Christmas weather wise is probably good for the majority of people even if it is not that exciting for weather enthusiasts.

The 06z GFS run is starting to trickle out now and it would not surprise me if there were one or two interesting scenarios deep in FI.

I see the perfect opportunity for us all to take a 1 week break from model watching.

1. The weather is benign for the next few days and will not change much from day to day.
2. Data issues and even less reliability over Xmas.
3. If something is stirring in deep FI now it could be as close as 144 hours when we come back in a week's time with a fresh pair of eyes.

Have a great Christmas. 

The force is too great - I won’t be able to stay away. The draw of the FI snow fest appearing is irresistible :)

Have a great Christmas Steve and all. That's "part of the fun" looking out for those first signs, usually false dawns!

Good idea with the 1 week break suggestion though. I am sure though that 95% will be having a sneaky peak. We have to, it's in our DNA.

Have a great Christmas, Steve and everyone else on TWO  Like others I may have a sneaky look at the charts over the festive period - force of habit! 

GEFS 06z look mixed and not that encouraging for cold weather fans. Also the Met Office in the last day or two seem to have be casting the net out farther rather than reeling it in. So still a long way to go IMO but not without interest.

 Unfortunately the evidence can be ignored even by those with a scientific background. On Twitter yesterday a well known broadcast meteorology was apparently advising people to ignore the GFS 6z. The evidence suggests it is fractionally less accurate (although more accurate than the 00z would have been a couple of years ago) than the 00z and 12z but certainly not enough to be ignored. Give it time and someone will roll-out the other nonsense that the real reason for the GFS 6z being flaky is that it is initiated from the GFS 00z t+6.

The METO prospects for cold at the end of December does not look like coming to pass.The possible change to a colder period is now out to mid January.just hope it doesn't creep to early Feb.

From what I could tell from the MetO updates a week or so ago, the chance of a change to generally colder conditions before the end of December was only an outside one and there was never really any consistent signal for this from the models we have access to. It has seemed to me that any change is and always was more likely to be sometime in the New Year.

There is a signal for a colder incursion towards the end of the first week of Jan. However it looks quite transient and based on high pressure in the mid-Atlantic. It possibly ties in quite well with the ECM 30 dayer which ran on 20/12. TBH I'm not really sure what the Met Office have been basing their 30 dayers on in recent weeks. Perhaps GloSea and an SSW wild card have been thrown into the pot.