Not too surprised to see this morning's 'snoozefest' (love that term), but expecting a lot of my good friend Philipe-flop to be making a snowing (yes that was a typo - and probably a Freudian slip to boot- LOL), but very interested to see how the end of Dronegate impacts on the model projections for FI.

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A ~10% drop isn't minute.

As I say, it is of course your right to ignore what's been shown to you (and backed up with evidence these past few years). If you want to convince people, though, you need to do your own research to back up your views. That's how science works!

You'd best get a move on if you want to start this year, though, as the data loss will kick off in around 24 hours!

Yep, I posted the coverage stats last year and don't intend doing it again this year! Anyone that wants to do it, feel free:

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/monitoring/dcover?facets=undefined&time=2018122300,0,2018122300&obs=aircraft&Flag=used

 

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Over the last few years when there has been less data, the models have had the propensity to inflate blocking scenarios. Given the SSW and blocking being around this year we could see some ridiculous charts over Xmas

GFS has watered down the deep FI signal for retrogression of our resident HP I see, although there's still a small cluster going for it. The dominant cluster now holds the HP just to the South or South West.

ECM op manages to get the HP over us just far enough North to inject some cooler air although this gets mixed out pretty quick - the HP doesn't sink off on this run though which means the option for it moving further North is there still.

In the meantime dry, average or just above day time temps initially, dropping to maybe slightly below if the air under the HP stagnates. I imagine there will be a fair bit of cloud around so cool days but above average nights seems like a reasonable bet, with little diurnal range. Might get lucky and get some clearer air at times which would lead to frosts for some.

Useable enough I guess and still potential for something more interesting from a coldies POV down the line

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_384_1.png  (Yes I know the caveats!)

The projected SSW looks on track on this morning’s update and I guess it is just a waiting game. Having a quiet Christmas weather wise is probably good for the majority of people even if it is not that exciting for weather enthusiasts.

The 06z GFS run is starting to trickle out now and it would not surprise me if there were one or two interesting scenarios deep in FI.

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Over the last few years when there has been less data, the models have had the propensity to inflate blocking scenarios. Given the SSW and blocking being around this year we could see some ridiculous charts over Xmas

This has been highlighted before, but there’s also an argument to say the models inflate more zonal scenarios with data loss. Impossible to say which outcomes are more/ less favoured which is why it’s best not  to give the idea too much gravity or get our Christmas knickers twisted. 

I see the perfect opportunity for us all to take a 1 week break from model watching.

1. The weather is benign for the next few days and will not change much from day to day.


2. Data issues and even less reliability over Xmas.


3. If something is stirring in deep FI now it could be as close as 144 hours when we come back in a week's time with a fresh pair of eyes.

Have a great Christmas. 

 

 

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I see the perfect opportunity for us all to take a 1 week break from model watching.

1. The weather is benign for the next few days and will not change much from day to day.


2. Data issues and even less reliability over Xmas.


3. If something is stirring in deep FI now it could be as close as 144 hours when we come back in a week's time with a fresh pair of eyes.

Have a great Christmas. 

 

 

 

The force is too great - I won’t be able to stay away. The draw of the FI snow fest appearing is irresistible :)

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I see the perfect opportunity for us all to take a 1 week break from model watching.

1. The weather is benign for the next few days and will not change much from day to day.


2. Data issues and even less reliability over Xmas.


3. If something is stirring in deep FI now it could be as close as 144 hours when we come back in a week's time with a fresh pair of eyes.

Have a great Christmas. 

 

 

Have a great Christmas Steve and all. That's "part of the fun" looking out for those first signs, usually false dawns!

Good idea with the 1 week break suggestion though. I am sure though that 95% will be having a sneaky peak. We have to, it's in our DNA.

I see the perfect opportunity for us all to take a 1 week break from model watching.

1. The weather is benign for the next few days and will not change much from day to day.


2. Data issues and even less reliability over Xmas.


3. If something is stirring in deep FI now it could be as close as 144 hours when we come back in a week's time with a fresh pair of eyes.

Have a great Christmas. 

Have a great Christmas, Steve and everyone else on TWO  Like others I may have a sneaky look at the charts over the festive period - force of habit! 

 

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GEFS 06z look mixed and not that encouraging for cold weather fans. Also the Met Office in the last day or two seem to have be casting the net out farther rather than reeling it in. So still a long way to go IMO but not without interest.

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A ~10% drop isn't minute.

As I say, it is of course your right to ignore what's been shown to you (and backed up with evidence these past few years). If you want to convince people, though, you need to do your own research to back up your views. That's how science works!

You'd best get a move on if you want to start this year, though, as the data loss will kick off in around 24 hours!

 Unfortunately the evidence can be ignored even by those with a scientific background. On Twitter yesterday a well known broadcast meteorology was apparently advising people to ignore the GFS 6z. The evidence suggests it is fractionally less accurate (although more accurate than the 00z would have been a couple of years ago) than the 00z and 12z but certainly not enough to be ignored. Give it time and someone will roll-out the other nonsense that the real reason for the GFS 6z being flaky is that it is initiated from the GFS 00z t+6.

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GEFS 06z look mixed and not that encouraging for cold weather fans. Also the Met Office in the last day or two seem to have be casting the net out farther rather than reeling it in. So still a long way to go IMO but not without interest.

The METO prospects for cold at the end of December does not look like coming to pass.The possible change to a colder period is now out to mid January.just hope it doesn't creep to early Feb.

 

The METO prospects for cold at the end of December does not look like coming to pass.The possible change to a colder period is now out to mid January.just hope it doesn't creep to early Feb.

From what I could tell from the MetO updates a week or so ago, the chance of a change to generally colder conditions before the end of December was only an outside one and there was never really any consistent signal for this from the models we have access to. It has seemed to me that any change is and always was more likely to be sometime in the New Year.

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The METO prospects for cold at the end of December does not look like coming to pass.The possible change to a colder period is now out to mid January.just hope it doesn't creep to early Feb.

There is a signal for a colder incursion towards the end of the first week of Jan. However it looks quite transient and based on high pressure in the mid-Atlantic. It possibly ties in quite well with the ECM 30 dayer which ran on 20/12. TBH I'm not really sure what the Met Office have been basing their 30 dayers on in recent weeks. Perhaps GloSea and an SSW wild card have been thrown into the pot. 

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 Unfortunately the evidence can be ignored even by those with a scientific background. On Twitter yesterday a well known broadcast meteorology was apparently advising people to ignore the GFS 6z. The evidence suggests it is fractionally less accurate (although more accurate than the 00z would have been a couple of years ago) than the 00z and 12z but certainly not enough to be ignored. Give it time and someone will roll-out the other nonsense that the real reason for the GFS 6z being flaky is that it is initiated from the GFS 00z t+6.

Agreed Brian.  Ignoring any output isn’t very bright, but disregarding output with such fractional differences is even more daft. 

 

The METO prospects for cold at the end of December does not look like coming to pass.The possible change to a colder period is now out to mid January.just hope it doesn't creep to early Feb.

The signal is clearly coming & going, or at least gradually weakening. Usually in these situations the emphasis on cold takes slow steps towards the exit before vanishing without trace. The ‘backloaded’ winter may even become a front loaded spring. 

 

From what I could tell from the MetO updates a week or so ago, the chance of a change to generally colder conditions before the end of December was only an outside one and there was never really any consistent signal for this from the models we have access to. It has seemed to me that any change is and always was more likely to be sometime in the New Year.

Yes that is exactly right. As things stand the chances of cold weather in the first part of January look relatively high, based on the range of output, forecasts and data available for that time period. If this turns out to be the case it has been very well spotted.

The immediate outlook looks benign and settled but into the new year things look a good deal more interesting and I’m not sure if it would be all that transient but time will tell.

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It's interesting to see the GFS(P) has been upgrading the peak of the warming - originally it was just over 8C, now it peaks at 16C! The ECM last night maxed out at 12C.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4086/gfsnh-10-18_cso5.png 

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It's interesting to see the GFS(P) has been upgrading the peak of the warming - originally it was just over 8C, now it peaks at 16C! The ECM last night maxed out at 12C.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4086/gfsnh-10-18_cso5.png 

Impressive and I hadn’t realised the initial warming part of the event was so imminent. It will be interesting to see how this impacts things  down the line.

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