At least it shows what potentially could happen!! Who would want a chart like this

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

I note with interest the dome of higher 850s conicinding with this settling down period. This suggest high pressure close by. The plunge in 850s in some of the ensembles suggests the high pressure could move and open the doors to colder weather.

I might be barking up the wrong tree here; but I do recall a spike in 850s can often precede a cold plunge.

Interesting times ahead.

Yes just a hint of some colder solutions turning up now at the end of the GEFS . a few snow rows as well.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

The reason for the colder options now appearing IMHO are that the models are now picking up on the MJO moving into phase 8 near the end of the period. The forecast has changed a little bit as the move into P8 looks a bit quicker that it might have been a few days back. From a coldies perspective, I'd rather it was slower than this and moved into P7 first (more chance of a longer cold snap).

With the warmth in the Enso regions, the MJO is going to be a big factor I think over the next month or so.

Keep the faith SC - we are still in a deep solar minimum - we can always hope that will override the QBO signal:

http://www.solarham.net/

Sun has been spotless for a couple of weeks now.

Some colder options now appearing in the outer reaches of GEFS, let’s see if they make their way into the more reliable timeframe.

Yes nice to see some colder runs come through and better for the weather our mental health as well as goof for this forum to see people discussing regularly now - let's hope this trend continues . I did expect this to happen at some point if we were to have a colder and more blocked end of November which was what the Met Office were banging on about and still are - it's just a matter of time. Let's hope we see the same or similar for the 06Z and 12z etc.

woah! talk about high uppers heading towards Svalbard - so far north as that?:

Let's hope this HP makes it up to Scandinavia and then retrogresses and sits over Iceland/Greenland, thus allowing that LP to take a NW - SE track and under cut that high!.

Yeah I agree with the NW Atlantic PV for Wednesday to Friday next week.

A Greenland High and NE Europe High would be good as well and it is looking very warm with moderate warm Southerly winds across UK and Western Europe and across SW Norwegian Sea.

If High Pressure can cause a big Jetstream Split, we can hope to see SE tracking Low Pressure by the last 10 days of November.

Cold conditions in NE Canada and Greenland with cold blocking high pressure forcing Low Pressure from South Arctic to our North and NE to move south across to West and SW Norwegian Sea NE Atlantic and move south to Scotland NE England out from NE off Iceland.

A few times of NW SE diverted Canadian Arctic Archipelago NE Canada PV to Northwest Atlantic with some WAA forced from Central and East USA which could send energetic Deep PV Low Pressure up the North an NW Atlantic- but this is where the forecast may change Lol.

This is not a prediction but is a suggestion of possible evolution setup.

😏😀.

Yep - we always need a bit of luck (away from High Ground in the North) for anything really wintry - especially down here (Surrey) in late Nov/Early Dec when the Channel and S North Sea are still pretty warm. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Big spread of options towards end of Nov. EC ens show similar uncertainty.

Definite uptick in interest.

Maybe if it appears more and closer timescale could be interesting for some of the northern contingent

Yep, I'll take T+384, even if the uppers aren't that impressive yet.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

Anecdotal I know, but watching the BBC weather forecasts each day has been quite interesting this week - several times they have talked about the Atlantic depressions coming in and across the country, but each day as it arrives, the depression just bounce off the block to our east and stall across the west. Wales has been wet - we have been wet here is west Worcestershire - but the noticeable thing has been the wind direction - persistent strong southerlies, never quite switching to the more usual south westerlies.

Then later on heights appear to gather pace over Scandy.

There may well be a cold end to the month but I’d rather see the month out quietly before the real rollercoaster builds into December.

ABOUT TIME TOO:

JFF of course:

ALL A LONG way off and JFF but look what's happening over Greenland at +384 - Looks like the mid Atlantic ridge is pushing northwards toward Greenland! ?

Starting to look more interesting, could be some chilly days and foggy nights

The cold but rather dry option option appears to be back on the table from mid month onwards though the GEFS don’t want push heights far enough north as per ECM. No point looking much further ahead than that for now until we see just where those heights set up shop.

Agreed. Cool and Frosty will do me just fine. The fact the HP looks likes it wants to move around and do its thing is only good news.