The Weather Outlook

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KevBrads1
03 November 2018 22:25:15

 

What I meant was compare 1998-2007 against 1961-90, then compare the 2008-17 data against that.

I just get the feeling that the 1998-2007 figures will be slightly higher. 

 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

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doctormog
03 November 2018 22:30:08

 

What I meant was compare 1998-2007 against 1961-90, then compare the 2008-17 data against that.

I just get the feeling that the 1998-2007 figures will be slightly higher. 

 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

I suspect you are right and my comment was not meant as any form of criticism of your observation. I just found it strange that the Met Office have deviated from the norm in terms of climate analysis period when publishing this report. 


tallyho_83
03 November 2018 23:22:35

 

Well I'm about as far inland from the coast as you can get   and I've had "ice days" in:

 

2008

2009

2010

2012 

2013 

2017 

2018 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

 

My cousin lived in Meriden - Apparently it's central and as about as far inland or away from the coast as you can get anywhere in the UK so i understand! 

Coventry is a little nearer to the Wash where as Birmingham is a little nearer to the Mersyside riverand Irish sea! So Meriden is bang on as far inland as you can go!

But where you are Gav - must be fantastic as you keep the cold and frost or lying snow - and keep the cold nights but perhaps very warm days in summer!?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gavin D
04 November 2018 12:13:22
Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 9 Nov 2018 to Sunday 18 Nov 2018:

On Friday and Saturday bands of rain will move from west to east across Britain, interspersed by brighter more showery conditions. The west and southwest will have the wettest weather, whilst eastern parts see the best brightness. It will generally be windy at times, with a risk of gales, especially around coasts in the west. Little change is expected during Sunday and for much of the following week, with the unsettled theme continuing. As a result most areas will have further spells of wet and windy weather, especially in the west. There is however, a low probability of central and south-eastern parts becoming drier, with an increased chance of fog patches. From mid month onwards there are signals of a trend to generally drier and also colder weather becoming established.

UK Outlook for Monday 19 Nov 2018 to Monday 3 Dec 2018:

Following the mild but rather unsettled weather pattern during the first half of November, there is an increasing likelihood of drier conditions becoming established across the British Isles for the last two weeks, and into the start of December. Outbreaks of rain look set to become more confined to parts of the north and northwest, and even here tending to ease. With longer spells of settled weather developing frost and fog are more likely to form overnight. These could be slow to clear during the daytime, given the time of year. A dip in the temperature will also be accompanied by a greater chance of some snow, especially over high ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast%3C/div%3E%3C/div%3EHighlights 

Brian Gaze
04 November 2018 12:19:44

The more I read that BBC report, the more I think #LazyJournalism. I mean where is the context in the first sentence?

The UK has experienced more weather extremes over the last 10 years when compared with previous decades, a Met Office report has said.

I'll draw attention to "when compared with previous decades" because many people will read that as meaning all previous decades. What it actually benchmarks against is the 1960-90 period only, as far as I can tell. Without reading the study in full I don't feel qualified to comment on it. However, I do think the BBC report is rubbish.   


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

KevBrads1
04 November 2018 12:37:55

 

I just get the feeling that the 1998-2007 figures will be slightly higher. 

 

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

1998-2007 CET average: 10.48

2008-2017 CET average: 10.13

So my logic says they were more tropical nights and less ice days during 1998-2007 than 2008-17

How many ice days were they from 1998-2007? I'm really struggling.

Ice days during 2008-17, you immediately drawn to late November-December 2010 just for a start

As for tropical nights, 1998-2007, you immediately drawn to the summers of 2003 and 2006. For 2008-17, summers 2013 and 2014 


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

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Gavin D
04 November 2018 21:32:43
Further ahead

Westerly winds

A little cooler

Wet & windy at times

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46085587 

Gavin D
05 November 2018 08:30:50

UK weather forecast: Atlantic storms to rip through Britain - SUPERCHARGED jet stream hits

BRITAIN is about to swelter in a 10-day blast of almost spring-like warmth as a supercharged jet stream pulls a swathe of tropical air in from the Continent.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1040820/uk-weather-forecast-november-storms-met-office-forecast-latest-winter-sunshine

Gusty
05 November 2018 08:39:37

UK weather forecast: Atlantic storms to rip through Britain - SUPERCHARGED jet stream hits

BRITAIN is about to swelter in a 10-day blast of almost spring-like warmth as a supercharged jet stream pulls a swathe of tropical air in from the Continent.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1040820/uk-weather-forecast-november-storms-met-office-forecast-latest-winter-sunshine

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Sadly Gavin you add fuel to their fire by posting these ridiculous headlines.

As a forum of fairly intelligent individuals these links are pointless and offer nothing to this site ? 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Gavin D
05 November 2018 09:27:34

BBC monthly outlook

Saturday 3 November—Sunday 11 November

A wet, windy weekend for some. Mild and changeable


The start of the week will see a large low pressure system to the west of the UK, with high pressure to the east, centered over Scandinavia and NW Russia.  This pattern will bring southerly winds across the UK, so after the recent cold weather, this week looks to be warmer than normal for the time of year.  Despite the relatively mild weather, thelow pressure system to the west will be close enough to bring some wet and perhaps windy weather to the country, interspersed with drier and calmer spells. The west and southwest are most prone to seeing rain with some eastern and northeastern areas expected to stay drier than normal.

Monday 12 November—Sunday 18 November
Mainly mild but wet and windy in the northwest.


The split in the weather is likely to become more of a northwest-southeast split by the time we get to the middle of November. The high pressure system expected to sit to the east of the UK week will move a little further south and west across Europe, with Atlantic low pressure systems then able to pass to the north and west of the UK. As a result of this change in pressure pattern, the north will also see wet weather, whilst the south and east should stay relatively dry. There will be a similar pattern with the winds with north-western parts of the country most likely to see spells of windy weather. This is actually a fairly normal pattern for the UK. 

Unusually for the time of year, there will be southwesterly winds across the whole of the UK. Although we are reasonably confident in the forecast for the middle of the month, there is a chance of one or two alternatives occurring. We could see high pressure moving closer to the UK and perhaps stretching across the country. If this happens then the weather is more likely to be drier and less windy. However, at this time of year high pressure tends to mean cooler nights despite the days probably being relatively bright.

Monday 19 November—Sunday 2 December
The northwest/southeast split could continue.


The end of November and start of December are not expected to bring any major changes in the weather pattern. Westerly or southwesterly winds are expected to dominate, with the strongest winds likely across the north and west of the UK. There will be a chance of gales at times and perhaps some spells of very wet weather too. The south and east will again be more likely to be drier and calmer than normal for the time of year with the south and east warmest, whilst the north and west, particularly Scotland will see temperatures close to or a little above normal.  There is around a 30% chance that we will see with high pressure to the west of us and a spell of pretty cool weather for most areas.

Next Update
As the festive season approaches, will it remain mild as we go through December?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

David M Porter
05 November 2018 09:34:14

BBC monthly outlook

Saturday 3 November—Sunday 11 November

A wet, windy weekend for some. Mild and changeable


The start of the week will see a large low pressure system to the west of the UK, with high pressure to the east, centered over Scandinavia and NW Russia.  This pattern will bring southerly winds across the UK, so after the recent cold weather, this week looks to be warmer than normal for the time of year.  Despite the relatively mild weather, thelow pressure system to the west will be close enough to bring some wet and perhaps windy weather to the country, interspersed with drier and calmer spells. The west and southwest are most prone to seeing rain with some eastern and northeastern areas expected to stay drier than normal.

Monday 12 November—Sunday 18 November
Mainly mild but wet and windy in the northwest.


The split in the weather is likely to become more of a northwest-southeast split by the time we get to the middle of November. The high pressure system expected to sit to the east of the UK week will move a little further south and west across Europe, with Atlantic low pressure systems then able to pass to the north and west of the UK. As a result of this change in pressure pattern, the north will also see wet weather, whilst the south and east should stay relatively dry. There will be a similar pattern with the winds with north-western parts of the country most likely to see spells of windy weather. This is actually a fairly normal pattern for the UK. 

Unusually for the time of year, there will be southwesterly winds across the whole of the UK. Although we are reasonably confident in the forecast for the middle of the month, there is a chance of one or two alternatives occurring. We could see high pressure moving closer to the UK and perhaps stretching across the country. If this happens then the weather is more likely to be drier and less windy. However, at this time of year high pressure tends to mean cooler nights despite the days probably being relatively bright.

Monday 19 November—Sunday 2 December
The northwest/southeast split could continue.


The end of November and start of December are not expected to bring any major changes in the weather pattern. Westerly or southwesterly winds are expected to dominate, with the strongest winds likely across the north and west of the UK. There will be a chance of gales at times and perhaps some spells of very wet weather too. The south and east will again be more likely to be drier and calmer than normal for the time of year with the south and east warmest, whilst the north and west, particularly Scotland will see temperatures close to or a little above normal.  There is around a 30% chance that we will see with high pressure to the west of us and a spell of pretty cool weather for most areas.

Next Update
As the festive season approaches, will it remain mild as we go through December?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Hmm, the BBC seem to be at odds with the Met Office re their thoughts for the second half of November.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Solar Cycles
05 November 2018 09:34:16
Poor update from a coldies perspective, the signal for heights to our E/NE appears to be waning and the most we can hope for is a mid Atlantic ridge. 😕
David M Porter
05 November 2018 10:08:11

Poor update from a coldies perspective, the signal for heights to our E/NE appears to be waning and the most we can hope for is a mid Atlantic ridge. 😕

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

I think I'll wait and see what the MetO say in their update later today and in the ones they issue over the coming few days before forming any conclusions, SC.

Speaking personally, I have even less faith in these BBC updates beyond the first week of the forecast period than I do in the day 16-30 section of the MetO updates. As far as I'm aware, the BBC outlook is only updated once a week each Monday whereas the MetO updates are updated twice each day. Furthermore, I don't claim to know much about Meteogroup whom the BBC now receive their forecasts from so I don't know what their record for forecast accuracy is like and whether it is any better or worse than that of the MetO.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Gavin D
05 November 2018 11:29:42

 

I think I'll wait and see what the MetO say in their update later today and in the ones they issue over the coming few days before forming any conclusions, SC.

Speaking personally, I have even less faith in these BBC updates beyond the first week of the forecast period than I do in the day 16-30 section of the MetO updates. As far as I'm aware, the BBC outlook is only updated once a week each Monday whereas the MetO updates are updated twice each day. Furthermore, I don't claim to know much about Meteogroup whom the BBC now receive their forecasts from so I don't know what their record for forecast accuracy is like and whether it is any better or worse than that of the MetO.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

 

Met office text forecasts for the 6 to 30-day range are only updated once per day (normally between 11am and 1pm) 

Gavin D
05 November 2018 12:46:35
Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Nov 2018 to Monday 19 Nov 2018:

Persistent rain and cloud are expected to clear away to the east early on Saturday, leaving sunny spells. However, bands of heavy blustery showers will follow along behind, perhaps including hail and thunder. It will often be windy, with gales around coasts and hills in the west. Although Sunday will probably be less windy, further showers and longer spells of rain are likely. Temperatures will be rather mild in the southeast, but near- normal in the northwest. As a result, night frosts are likely to be confined to northwestern areas of the UK. Next week, most areas will have more wet, windy and fairly mild weather, with the heaviest rain falling in the west. There will be brighter spells though, particularly in the east.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Nov 2018 to Tuesday 4 Dec 2018:

There is an increasing likelihood of drier and brighter weather becoming established across the British Isles towards the end of November and into the start of December. Outbreaks of rain look set to become more confined to the north and northwest, and even here tending to ease. With longer spells of dry, clear and less windy weather developing, frost and fog are more likely to form overnight. These could be slow to clear during the daytime, given the time of year. At times the wind will turn northerly, causing a dip in temperatures and a greater chance of some snow, though this will probably stay over high ground in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

tallyho_83
05 November 2018 14:04:16

 

Sadly Gavin you add fuel to their fire by posting these ridiculous headlines.

As a forum of fairly intelligent individuals these links are pointless and offer nothing to this site ? 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

 

Yes I did ask Gavin - Why he feels he needs members of the forum to know what the Express are saying - does he believe the daily Express? Do you Gavin? Do you want us to believe them - what's your motive for sharing their front pages each time? Please enlighten me? I remember last time you posted the Express they mentioned 4 months of cold/snow or something from November onwards and now they are talking about spring warmth and you're getting us to believe this?

Gavin - you're an intelligent bloke I am sure, so don't get us to believe what the Express is saying because it's all BS. - I would have thought you knew that anyway!? Or have i missed  something? I am not having a go at you, i am keen to know why you keep sharing the express front page headlines with this forum - do you expect us to believe them or what us to by the paper? what is it? Thanks!


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
05 November 2018 14:05:25

UK weather forecast HEAT SHOCK: Britain to be hit by SOARING HEAT for 90 DAYS

BRITAIN is about to sizzle in another blast of blowtorch heat amid predictions warm weather could hold out until Christmas.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1009698/UK-weather-forecast-latest-hot-Met-Office-forecast-long-range-forecast-heat-September-2018

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

See what I mean?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
05 November 2018 14:08:23

HEAVY SNOW warning: UK faces COLDEST winter for DECADE - shock long-range weather forecast

BRITAIN is facing the coldest and harshest winter for almost a decade with heavy, early snowfall threatening to blanket the nation by Christmas.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1021047/UK-weather-long-range-forecast-Britain-heavy-snow-cold-winter-2018-Met-Office

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">

Another example!! - Why do it?

Anyone with a Brain will know that there will not be 4 months of snow and cold.

Or is it the fact that you are trying to get us to acknowledge and agree with you that the Express is talking BS as always only to sell more of their papers!?

 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Solar Cycles
05 November 2018 14:08:44
To be fair to Gavin it is the Media thread no mattter how ridiculous the story/source.
Brian Gaze
05 November 2018 14:10:32

To be fair to Gavin it is the Media thread no mattter how ridiculous the story/source.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Indeed. It is for everyone to make their own decisions. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin D
05 November 2018 14:41:35

">

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Another example!! - Why do it?

Anyone with a Brain will know that there will not be 4 months of snow and cold.

Or is it the fact that you are trying to get us to acknowledge and agree with you that the Express is talking BS as always only to sell more of their papers!?

 

 

Because it's the media thread if I want to post it I will 

David M Porter
05 November 2018 16:22:56

 

 

Met office text forecasts for the 6 to 30-day range are only updated once per day (normally between 11am and 1pm) 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

True, however, I have noticed in recent times that when looking up the Met0 6-30 day forecast first thing in the morning, they appear to have been updated again in the small hours, often between 1am and 2am or thenabouts.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

David M Porter
05 November 2018 16:29:21

Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Nov 2018 to Monday 19 Nov 2018:

Persistent rain and cloud are expected to clear away to the east early on Saturday, leaving sunny spells. However, bands of heavy blustery showers will follow along behind, perhaps including hail and thunder. It will often be windy, with gales around coasts and hills in the west. Although Sunday will probably be less windy, further showers and longer spells of rain are likely. Temperatures will be rather mild in the southeast, but near- normal in the northwest. As a result, night frosts are likely to be confined to northwestern areas of the UK. Next week, most areas will have more wet, windy and fairly mild weather, with the heaviest rain falling in the west. There will be brighter spells though, particularly in the east.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Nov 2018 to Tuesday 4 Dec 2018:

There is an increasing likelihood of drier and brighter weather becoming established across the British Isles towards the end of November and into the start of December. Outbreaks of rain look set to become more confined to the north and northwest, and even here tending to ease. With longer spells of dry, clear and less windy weather developing, frost and fog are more likely to form overnight. These could be slow to clear during the daytime, given the time of year. At times the wind will turn northerly, causing a dip in temperatures and a greater chance of some snow, though this will probably stay over high ground in the north.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

While this forecast certainly accords fairly well with the BBC monthly outlook posted in here earlier, it certainly seems to disagree with the BBC/Meteogroup wrt the final third of November and the start of December.

Out of interest, does anyone know why the BBC dropped the MetO as their forecast provider? I have been assuming that it was to do with money, but I could be wrong about that.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

tallyho_83
05 November 2018 17:21:21

 

Another example!! - Why do it?

Anyone with a Brain will know that there will not be 4 months of snow and cold.

Or is it the fact that you are trying to get us to acknowledge and agree with you that the Express is talking BS as always only to sell more of their papers!?

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

Because it's the media thread if I want to post it I will 

--------------------------------------------------------------

Sure - but my question to you is..? Do you actually take notice and believe in what you read on front pages of the daily Express? Or is it more "Look at what the daily express are saying now!" type thing!


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gavin D
05 November 2018 21:43:59
Next week

Generally mild

Often windy

Rain at times

Wettest in west

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46104640 

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