BBC monthly outlook
Saturday 3 November—Sunday 11 November
A wet, windy weekend for some. Mild and changeable
The start of the week will see a large low pressure system to the west of the UK, with high pressure to the east, centered over Scandinavia and NW Russia. This pattern will bring southerly winds across the UK, so after the recent cold weather, this week looks to be warmer than normal for the time of year. Despite the relatively mild weather, thelow pressure system to the west will be close enough to bring some wet and perhaps windy weather to the country, interspersed with drier and calmer spells. The west and southwest are most prone to seeing rain with some eastern and northeastern areas expected to stay drier than normal.
Monday 12 November—Sunday 18 November
Mainly mild but wet and windy in the northwest.
The split in the weather is likely to become more of a northwest-southeast split by the time we get to the middle of November. The high pressure system expected to sit to the east of the UK week will move a little further south and west across Europe, with Atlantic low pressure systems then able to pass to the north and west of the UK. As a result of this change in pressure pattern, the north will also see wet weather, whilst the south and east should stay relatively dry. There will be a similar pattern with the winds with north-western parts of the country most likely to see spells of windy weather. This is actually a fairly normal pattern for the UK.
Unusually for the time of year, there will be southwesterly winds across the whole of the UK. Although we are reasonably confident in the forecast for the middle of the month, there is a chance of one or two alternatives occurring. We could see high pressure moving closer to the UK and perhaps stretching across the country. If this happens then the weather is more likely to be drier and less windy. However, at this time of year high pressure tends to mean cooler nights despite the days probably being relatively bright.
Monday 19 November—Sunday 2 December
The northwest/southeast split could continue.
The end of November and start of December are not expected to bring any major changes in the weather pattern. Westerly or southwesterly winds are expected to dominate, with the strongest winds likely across the north and west of the UK. There will be a chance of gales at times and perhaps some spells of very wet weather too. The south and east will again be more likely to be drier and calmer than normal for the time of year with the south and east warmest, whilst the north and west, particularly Scotland will see temperatures close to or a little above normal. There is around a 30% chance that we will see with high pressure to the west of us and a spell of pretty cool weather for most areas.
Next Update
As the festive season approaches, will it remain mild as we go through December?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook
Originally Posted by: Gavin D