BBC monthly outlook

Wednesday 7 November—Sunday 11 November

Staying mild but rain and brisk winds at times

A mild but blustery day on Wednesday with outbreaks of rain spreading slowly northwards and eastwards across the UK. The rain will be heaviest in the west and south. There will be a few bright spells, though, with the best of those in the north and east. Brisk south to south-easterly winds will gust to around 35-45mph quite widely. Highs of typically 10-14 Celsius.
On Thursday, further pulses of rain are likely to spread northwards over western parts of the UK. Meanwhile, eastern England and north-east Scotland will be often dry with some bright or sunny spells. Breezy but mild again with highs ranging from around 10 Celsius in the north to 14 Celsius in the south.

Friday will also be fairly mild but blustery with a strengthening south tosouth-easterly wind. Once again, outbreaks of rain are likely to be most widespread over western areas of the UK although some rain should reach the east later on. Unsettled and breezy at times this weekend withshower or longer spells of rain. On Saturday, the showers are likely to be heaviest in the south and west. Some of those showers could be heavy and thundery. Meanwhile, there should be sunshine at times further north and east with fewer showers. Sunday may see more widespread rain spreading from the south into parts of England and Wales later in the day but otherwise a mixture of bright spells and showers are likely.

Monday 12 November—Sunday 18 November

Mild again. Wettest in the west

Through next week, southerly winds are likely to predominate, bringing in mild conditions from southern Europe. Therefore, temperatures will be above the normal for November quite widely on most days. However, there are likely to some regional variations to the weather. Wettest and breeziest conditions are likely to be over western areas of the UK. Indeed,low pressure areas over the Atlantic are likely to bring pulses of rain northwards across some western areas of England along with Wales and Northern Ireland. Meanwhile, rainfall is likely to be occasional for central and eastern areas of the UK and also much of Scotland; these areas should see at least a few fine, dry days.

Confidence in the mild conditions is quite high but there are uncertainties over the extent of rainfall. Indeed, there are chances that high pressure builds in from the east through the second half of the week to bring more widespread dry and calmer conditions. If this happens, there would also be an elevated risk of overnight and morning fog.

Monday 19 November—Sunday 2 December

Wet in the north west but drier in the south

Through late November, winds are likely to be often from the south and west, continuing to bring rather mild conditions to the country. Any colder weather is unlikely to be prolonged or significant. Indeed, we are likely to see fewer night frosts than normal for the time of year. Low pressure areas are likely to move in from the Atlantic, being driven in along a strong jet stream at times (a ribbon of strong winds in the upper atmosphere). These low pressure areas are expected to bring frequent wet conditions to western and north-western areas of the UK. Indeed, there could be some high rainfall totals for western Scotland, Northern Ireland and in Cumbria. These areas are also likely to be windy at times. Meanwhile, rainfall should be less frequent further south and east across the country. Central and eastern areas of England are actually favoured to be less wet than normal for the time of year.

Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to be often near to above the seasonal average over much of the UK. Once again, there is some uncertainty over the extent of rainfall. Initially, there are chances of more widespread dry and calm conditions around mid-month. However, towards the end of the month and into the start of December, more widespread wet and windy, or even stormy conditions cannot be ruled out.

Next Update

We will take another look to see whether the north-west - south-east split to the weather is likely to persist and whether north-western areas are likely to continue having the wettest and windiest conditions through the coming weeks.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

They really don';t have a clue The Once again, there is some uncertainty...." hmm..

So turning unsettled, with stormy conditions end of month now not DRIER?

It does look like the Met Office have dropped the idea of a decent start to winter now. GLOSEA must have dropped the HLB signal big time as its quite a dramatic change from just a couple of days ago. My optimism for a cold start to winter has gone now.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Nov 2018 to Friday 23 Nov 2018:

Wednesday is likely to be a mild day with cloud and outbreaks of rain in the north and west as well as some central areas. The southeast will be drier and brighter. Rain will tend to clear northwards on Thursday to leave a mainly dry day with variable amounts of cloud and some sunny spells. Through the end of the week mild, dry weather looks set to extend across many areas with rain confined to the northwest once more. Early mist and fog may become more prevalent across south and eastern parts, while windier conditions will reduce this risk in the northwest; overnight frosts, however, are more likely in the north. These drier than average conditions may continue through the end of the period, with temperatures gradually returning to normal.

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Nov 2018 to Saturday 8 Dec 2018:

During the last week of November and into early December the weather will probably still be predominantly settled, although with an increased chance of some more unsettled interludes with showers or longer spells of rain spreading to many areas at times. Temperatures will generally be below average allowing for an increased chance of snow over northern hills during any unsettled spells. Lower than average temperatures will also bring a marked increase in the likelihood and extent of frosts. Any milder interludes will probably be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast