CET yesterday was just 3.33C

Latest estimate for the final October CET is 10.81C. This is just above the 1981-2010 mean

Thanks GW! 

6c below average yesterday is impressive! 

Very low yesterday  for my individual Mean .. low -0.1c Max 4.4c. = 4.3c Divided by TWO =2.15c for my daily.... 

Met Office Hadley           11.7c.     Anomaly       0.8c. Provisional to 27th

Metcheck                        11.38c    Anomaly       0.87c

Netweather                     11.94c    Anomaly       1.54c

Hexam                            10.2c     Anomaly       -0.44c

Mansfield Weather            11.9c     Anomaly        0.18c

Peasedown St John         11.74c    Anomaly    -0.24c

All 10 of mine Down.

Mean of my 10 11.67c        

Met Office Hadley         11.5c.      Anomaly       0.7c. Provisional to  28th.

Metcheck                      11.11c     Anomaly       0.60c

Netweather                   11.69c     Anomaly       1.29c

Mansfield Weather       11.6c     Anomaly     -0.33c

Peasedown St John     11.45c   Anomaly   -0.53c     

Treviskey Redruth      11.5c    Anomaly    -1.22c

All down today

Mean of my 10  11.37c.    

-4.3*C at Pershore last night and I believe it also got into the -4s two or three nights ago.

Generally been less cold to the east and north though, prior to today at least.

Met Office Hadley          11.2c.      Anomaly     0.5c   Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                       10.86.     Anomaly     0.35c.

Netweather                    11.41c    Anomaly     1.02c

Mansfield Weather   11.4c.   Anomaly    -0.32c

Peasedown St John  11.13c   Anomaly   -0.85c.

All Down today

Mean of my 10    11.14c 

Seems to be a feature this year

February 21st: 3.8°C ends 2.9°C

April 24th: 10.3°C  ends 9.8°C

August 22nd: 17.8°C ends 16.6°C

September 20th: 15.3°C ends 13.8°C

October 25th ~12.2°C  might end sub 11.0°C

Another night quite a bit colder across western parts than the model projections of just a few days ago. They days don't seem to have been any milder than predicted to compensate.

Not got the figures to hand here, but given the western bias of the CET, I'll be surprised if the actual CET finishes outside the 10.5 to 10.7*C range.

As Kevin highlighted nicely there - anomalously cold finishes have been quite the theme this year, you could almost say it was... spooky .

Currently the Nov signals have some suggestion that anomalous cold is more likely later than earlier in the month so it could be yet another one to follow that pattern!

Met Office Hadley        11.0c.    Anomaly      0.3c. Provisional to 30th.

Metcheck                     10.64c    Anomaly    0.13c

Netweather                  11.2c      Anomaly    0.81c

Mansfield Weather    11.2c     Anomaly    -0.52c

Peasedown St John   10.86c.   Anomaly    -1.12c..

Mean of my 10  10.94c.

Crikey!  Time for the November thread already!  Where has this year gone?  Can the final two months continue the pattern of throwing up amazingly interesting weather?  

So the very cold nights over the past few days have hammered the CET. 

My final estimate for October is just 10.61C which is 0.08C below the 1981-2010 mean and 0.20C above the 1971-2000 mean.

So taking the most recent 30 year mean from 1981-2010 that means both September and October have been below average. September was 0.32C below average (it was 0.01C above average compared to the 1971-2000 mean).

The CET mean for the final five days of October is 4.33C. Coldest last five days of October since 2008 when the mean was 3.96C

An impressive CET fall during the second half - perhaps among the largest seen in October?

Funny thing is that estimate splits the difference between my wildcard estimate of 9.8*C and the model guidance estimate of 11.4*C that I would ordinarily have used (as mentioned early in this thread). At last, the secret to success is discovered, 50% science, 50% whatever! 

GW..

You were correct. CET has just come in at 10.6C.

Grandad

Mean of my 10 Watched Stations     10.98c   For October. Based on a 5 year average for each of the 10. 2013 - 2017 Inclusive.

Alton                      10.6c.   Anomaly   -2.24c

Canvey Island         12.2c    Anomaly   -0.94c

Cheadle Hulme        10.6c    Anomaly   -0.58c

Clevedon Weather 12.1c    Anomaly      0.92c

Darwen                   10.8c    Anomaly   -1.14c

Hexam                    9.6c      Anomaly   -1.04c

Mount Sorrel            10.8c    Anomaly   -1.0c

Mansfield Weather 11.2c    Anomaly      -0.52c

Peasedown st John 10.66c    Anomaly    -1.32c

Treviskey Redruth  11.3c    Anomaly    -1.42c.          

Final answer for October = 10.64c.

Met Office Hadley  OCTOBER   2018   10.6c     Anomaly   0.0c 

Here are the charts for October. A very average month overall but within that much of the first three weeks were very warm and the final week was very cold.

The maximum CET was 0.6C above average but the minimum CET was 0.7C below average.

The Autumn has been tracking very close to average so far. We are slightly below the 1981-2010 mean and slightly above the 1971-2000 mean.

Annual CET competition - October update

A bit of a wobble from Darren S this month with an error of more than 1C. This allows Gusty to close in such that the top two are now very close. There is big gap to The Professional who is now in third place.

Link to larger table TABLE