The Weather Outlook

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ballamar
23 October 2018 09:59:04
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_84_1.png 

That embedded low in the northerly flow could pep up the precipitation in the flow with some heavier rain and lively showers

doctormog
23 October 2018 10:04:31

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_84_1.png  

That embedded low in the northerly flow could pep up the precipitation in the flow with some heavier rain and lively showers

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Indeed. There could be some lively convective action associated with that flow. Camera at the ready. 

It strikes me as early in the "the season" for heights to be extending N/NE as they are hinted at doing once again on the 06z GFS op run  


Windy Willow
23 October 2018 10:09:16

The weather is sure looking interesting this weekend, so long as any snow that may fall, down this way, has gone by the 1st of Nov as we're flying from Stanstead then!


South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White

It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.

tallyho_83
23 October 2018 10:56:43

Just looks more and more blocked' - no sign of any zonality - just look at the HP's systems that seem to keep developing across the north. 

Even out to +240 from Eastern Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Scandinavia  to western Russia etc...!?

This could all change is it's well into FI but given that we have never really entered a wetter few weeks of weather this wouldn't surprise me really if this came off....? All we have had are wetter spells but nothing out of ordinary for Autumn. 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
23 October 2018 10:59:53

JUST FOR FUN:

LET'S HOPE THIS PATTERN OCCURS IN December AND MID-WINTER,


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Saint Snow
23 October 2018 11:02:40

JUST FOR FUN:

LET'S HOPE THIS PATTERN OCCURS IN December AND MID-WINTER,

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

 

Hear! Hear!

Don't even mind a front-loaded winter as long as we get a repeat somewhere between Dec 2009 and Dec 2010.

 

 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

JOHN NI
23 October 2018 11:04:51

JUST FOR FUN:

LET'S HOPE THIS PATTERN OCCURS IN December AND MID-WINTER,

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Certainly some interesting possibilities being thrown up as we head into November. Also noticing some very cold air accumulating / forecast across the northern half of Scandinavia - a relatively rare phenomenon so early in the 'winter' in recent decades. If cold air gets entrenched there early on - it might be hard to shift. 


John.

The orange County of Armagh.

Gavin D
23 October 2018 11:38:20

The 7-day trend from the 06z has a small area of orange over ROI elsewhere it remains below average

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.e41d75c72088f0d381d489028c30d0c6.png

Maunder Minimum
23 October 2018 11:44:16

The 7-day trend from the 06z has a small area of orange over ROI elsewhere it remains below average

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.e41d75c72088f0d381d489028c30d0c6.png

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

That implies a Scandi HP with attempted incursions from the west. ( I was going to say from the SW, but Spain and Portugal as shown as well below average).


New world order coming.
doctormog
23 October 2018 11:56:18
Remember those charts only show the trend not the actual anomalies. In other words it says the trend for most is for it to get colder over the time period shown (i.e. the difference between day 7 and day 1 not the departure from the climate mean).

In much of SE Europe it will warmer in a week's time compared with tomorrow and here, France, Spain etc. it will be colder.


eddied
23 October 2018 15:49:14
Looks like summer is over then 😉
Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23

Days snow falling: 4

Days snow on ground:8

Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th

Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th

Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st

Crepuscular Ray
23 October 2018 16:13:44

Looks like summer is over then ;)

Originally Posted by: eddied 

Summers been over since late July in the N and NW 😂


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

tallyho_83
23 October 2018 17:11:13

Surprised to see a Scandinavian HP develop end of October:

 

Quite cold airmass to the east esp of Scandinavia - looks like there will be a rapid advance in snow cover for Scandinavia over the next week or so. 

 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
23 October 2018 17:14:48

Looking promising for a negative AO to continue from next weekend but will it hold on:

(We have had months of positivity...maybe months of Negativity?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Whiteout
23 October 2018 17:30:48

Looks like summer is over then ;)

Originally Posted by: eddied 

 

Yep, think that is our lot, can’t complain though, straight into winter then bypassing autumn 


Home/Work - Dartmoor

240m/785 ft asl

sizzle
23 October 2018 17:32:35

Looks like summer is over then ;)

Originally Posted by: eddied 

yep we had a long hardcore summer. time for a long hardcore winter

Ally Pally Snowman
23 October 2018 17:35:25

Certainly some stunning winter charts at the moment just 4 weeks to early. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
sizzle
23 October 2018 17:38:21

Certainly some stunning winter charts at the moment just 4 weeks to early. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

the best charts always come early or late and never on time. unless MR BRIAN calls something special.

tallyho_83
23 October 2018 17:54:52

 

 

Yep, think that is our lot, can’t complain though, straight into winter then bypassing autumn 

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

Remember we never really had a spring! since the beast bit back end of Feb into March and then into 3rd week of March once again - it was only a matter of weeks we saw temps of 18 to 20c and by 21st April we saw temperatures as high as 25c in the south!! Looks like we are going straight from summer to winter ...not the normal weeks of Autumnal wind and rain etc. It was A sunny and pleasant 18c at one point today but maxes of +8c on Saturday. surprised


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 October 2018 20:58:16
29C in April in fact. After the coldest March day in decades.

Apocalyptic thunderstorms, a long summer heatwave and drought, completely cloudless early May bank holiday weekend, and 26C in mid October. Quite a year.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
tallyho_83
23 October 2018 22:23:59

29C in April in fact. After the coldest March day in decades.

Apocalyptic thunderstorms, a long summer heatwave and drought, completely cloudless early May bank holiday weekend, and 26C in mid October. Quite a year.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

 

More continental that's for sure (more extreme!) and on Sat 22nd September we (many in the south of UK reached daytime maxes of +8c to +10c one day under cold rain. Can never remember it that cold in September ever before measuring a daytime maxes of only +9 or 10c - but then again in October we reached +25 or 26c in South and east...which is almost a record breaker for a warm daytime max. This weekend we may not reach +8 or 9c by day with northerly wind which is rare in October! Then we whatever happens next is anyone's guess? Will we get a scandinavian block early November or not? - time will tell? Interesting times ahead for sure.


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
23 October 2018 22:32:15

If this occurred in December, Jan or Feb? :D

= BATTLE GROUND! AND THAT LITTLE FEATURE TO THE SOUTH WEST COULD BRING SNOW!


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

picturesareme
23 October 2018 22:40:59

If this occurred in December, Jan or Feb? :D

= BATTLE GROUND! AND THAT LITTLE FEATURE TO THE SOUTH WEST COULD BRING SNOW!

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

and if this occurred in July it we'd looking at some hot humid thundery fun.. 

 

what a shame it's October 

Surrey John
24 October 2018 05:46:59
Looks to me that the Scandinavian High is going to get seriously established

By Tuesday (if it comes off) 1040 on this chart

Also sub 528 dam air over whole of Scandinavia

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_150_33.png 

Another 528 airmass heading towards Western Ireland with UK being squeezed

Not sure where this is going, but Atlantic prevailing it is not.


Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire

35m ASL

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 October 2018 06:15:38

Looks to me that the Scandinavian High is going to get seriously established
By Tuesday (if it comes off) 1040 on this chart
Also sub 528 dam air over whole of Scandinavia

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_150_33.png

Another 528 airmass heading towards Western Ireland with UK being squeezed

Not sure where this is going, but Atlantic prevailing it is not.

Originally Posted by: Surrey John 

Temperature pattern http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 would support the Scandi/Russian high, but the rainfall suggests depressions stalling over the UK with plenty of rain http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 

NW Britain probably feel they've had enough rain but down here we need our groundwater topped up.

 


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

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