BBC monthly outlook
Saturday 6 October—Sunday 14 October
Turning warmer after a cool weekend.
A chilly, wet and breezy morning for much of England and Wales on Saturday but brightening-up in the west and north through the afternoon. Meanwhile, Scotland and Northern Ireland will have bright spells and only isolated showers through Saturday.
After a cold night with an early frost for some, Sunday will be a drier, calmer and sunnier day for large parts of England and Wales while Scotland and Northern Ireland will have a wetter and windier day; heavy rain for north-west Scotland.
Through the first half of next week, temperatures will be on the rise for much of England and Wales. It will feel more like summer than autumn with a lot of dry weather as well for many with sunshine at times. Temperatures are likely to climb into the low 20s Celsius over some southern areas of England by Wednesday. However, Scotland and Northern Ireland will be cloudier and windier at times. Western and north-west Scotland will be thoroughly wet with some high rainfall totals likely there.
The second half of next week is still likely to be mild for many although temperatures may fall away slightly over England and Wales-still feeling pleasant though.
There should be a lot of dry weather, again with the greatest risk of rainfall for western and north-western fringes of the UK. However, the details of the forecast could change. There is a slight risk that ex-Hurricane Leslie tracks from the mid-Atlantic close to the UK late in the week, which could bring more widely windy weather.
Monday 15 October—Sunday 21 October
Turning wetter more widely. Still mild.
For the third week of October, changeable weather conditions can be expected with some typically wet and breezy autumn weather at times for many. However, initially, high pressure may be nearby to the east of the UK, bringing some fine weather to central and eastern areas albeit with a risk of morning fog.
Meanwhile, western and northwestern fringes of the UK will have the highest risk of wetter and breezier weather early in the week. As the week progresses, there is an increasing likelihood of outbreaks of rain extending further east and south across the UK. Indeed, there are chances of some significant rainfall for many, perhaps accompanied by brisk winds too.
Temperatures will probably be down a little compared to the previous week but it should still be quite mild for the time of year.
Monday 22 October—Sunday 4 November
Changeable conditions with rain at times.
The final full week of October is likely to maintain changeable conditions over the UK with bands of rain spreading southeastwards across the country at times.
The latest indications are for a somewhat wetter outlook than previously forecast. However, there should still be some drier and brighter interludes as well, perhaps with the best of those for eastern areas. Once again, western Scotland could bear the brunt of the heaviest rain and strongest winds.
Other parts of the UK are also likely to be breezy at times though. Meanwhile, temperatures look like not departing too far from the seasonal average. There are only slight risks of any significant cold weather although the occasional night frost can be expected in rural areas. As we move into the turn of the month, we can still expect rather changeable conditions with rain at times but there are some indications that northern areas, including western Scotland, may start to turn less wet. Temperatures are likely to be variable, again probably not departing too far from the seasonal average. A greater risk of some night frosts, though, over northern areas of the UK.
Next Update
We will take another look to see if there are any signs of next week's warmth persisting or whether we are still likely to see a change to wetter and less warm conditions.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook