The Weather Outlook

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RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
15 October 2018 07:40:37

 

I recorded 43.8mm yesterday and 4.2mm so far today. Sometimes weather warnings are thrown around like confetti but I don't think there were any at all yesterday. The system could do with reviewing IMO. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I was chatting to quite a few people yesterday about all this and it seemed generally agreed that the weather forecasts from the various agencies have, particularly recently, lost all credibility.

Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

lanky
15 October 2018 07:41:39

 

I recorded 43.8mm yesterday and 4.2mm so far today. Sometimes weather warnings are thrown around like confetti but I don't think there were any at all yesterday. The system could do with reviewing IMO. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


same here in Kew

Around 40mm since 07:00 yesterday

Not so much the absence of a yellow "Be Aware" warning as a forecast error IMO. The front stalled and re-activated much more than expected

 

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

ozone_aurora
15 October 2018 09:07:07


same here in Kew

Around 40mm since 07:00 yesterday

Not so much the absence of a yellow "Be Aware" warning as a forecast error IMO. The front stalled and re-activated much more than expected

 

Originally Posted by: lanky 

 

The front was forecast to have swept across England and then move out into the N Sea by late Sunday afternoon, thus becoming dry and bright everywhere (in England). By Saturday night it became apparent that the forecast was going badly wrong! 

Gavin D
16 October 2018 07:53:54

UK weather forecast: Britain braces for ‘SEVERE snow’ - FREAK SOLAR STORM warning

"A SEVERE winter blast will blanket swathes of Britain in thick snow while pushing temperatures to record lows THIS MONTH, shock long-range weather forecasts warn.

Freak changes in the composition of space around the sun are about to drive a chain of meteorological events locking the UK into a savage early Arctic freeze, it has been claimed.

The so-called solar corona has become dotted with holes on its Earth-facing side threatening serious knock-on effects to the flow of the jet stream and the weather this winter.

Temperatures are expected to nosedive towards the end of October bringing ‘substantial snowfall’ across Scotland, northern and central England.

It could herald the start of a four-month Polar assault with snow and sub-zero temperatures threatening to grip the nation until February.

Britain could be facing a worse freeze than that wrought by the Beast from the East which brought swathes of the country to a shivering standstill earlier this year.

Despite forecasts for milder conditions over the next few days forecasters are sounding alarm bells for the mercury to plummet within weeks.

Weather Action’s Plers Corbyn said: “We are expecting some quite severe snowfall before the end of this month and it will not just be confined to the far north, this could reach parts of the Midlands or even further south."

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1031836/uk-weather-forecast-latest-met-office-forecast-long-range-forecast-uk-winter-forecast

Gavin D
16 October 2018 07:57:06
Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 20 Oct 2018 to Monday 29 Oct 2018:

This weekend will slowly become more changeable across the country. Southern and many central areas will start dry with sunny periods after early fog clear. Northern areas will be more cloudy with outbreaks of rain and strong winds. The rain may move southwards through the weekend, turning lighter towards the southeast. Brighter and showery conditions will follow behind. Thereafter, it is likely to stay changeable with periods of wet and windy weather interspersed with brighter and showery spells. The heaviest rain is likely in the north, where there's a risk of gales. Generally drier and brighter in the south, particularly in central and southwestern areas. Temperatures varying around average, but becoming rather cold later with an increasing risk of overnight frosts.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 30 Oct 2018 to Tuesday 13 Nov 2018:

By the end of October and into early November weather systems may become slow moving at times. This will lead to the risk of longer unsettled spells and, conversely, the chance of longer settled spells. Western and northwestern areas will probably see the wettest and windiest conditions, with the south and east often drier and brighter, although still with some rain at times too. During any generally settled and drier spells of weather there is an increasing risk of overnight frost and fog, especially in the north of the UK. On the whole temperatures are likely to be rather cold, but some brief milder spells are also possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Solar Cycles
16 October 2018 07:58:21
Good old Express never fails to deliver. 😁
tallyho_83
16 October 2018 18:26:17

Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 20 Oct 2018 to Monday 29 Oct 2018:

This weekend will slowly become more changeable across the country. Southern and many central areas will start dry with sunny periods after early fog clear. Northern areas will be more cloudy with outbreaks of rain and strong winds. The rain may move southwards through the weekend, turning lighter towards the southeast. Brighter and showery conditions will follow behind. Thereafter, it is likely to stay changeable with periods of wet and windy weather interspersed with brighter and showery spells. The heaviest rain is likely in the north, where there's a risk of gales. Generally drier and brighter in the south, particularly in central and southwestern areas. Temperatures varying around average, but becoming rather cold later with an increasing risk of overnight frosts.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 30 Oct 2018 to Tuesday 13 Nov 2018:

By the end of October and into early November weather systems may become slow moving at times. This will lead to the risk of longer unsettled spells and, conversely, the chance of longer settled spells. Western and northwestern areas will probably see the wettest and windiest conditions, with the south and east often drier and brighter, although still with some rain at times too. During any generally settled and drier spells of weather there is an increasing risk of overnight frost and fog, especially in the north of the UK. On the whole temperatures are likely to be rather cold, but some brief milder spells are also possible.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Looking positive but not quite what the Express were forecasting! But bring on some cold crisp and clear nights!

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
16 October 2018 18:28:39

UK weather forecast: Britain braces for ‘SEVERE snow’ - FREAK SOLAR STORM warning

"A SEVERE winter blast will blanket swathes of Britain in thick snow while pushing temperatures to record lows THIS MONTH, shock long-range weather forecasts warn.

Freak changes in the composition of space around the sun are about to drive a chain of meteorological events locking the UK into a savage early Arctic freeze, it has been claimed.

The so-called solar corona has become dotted with holes on its Earth-facing side threatening serious knock-on effects to the flow of the jet stream and the weather this winter.

Temperatures are expected to nosedive towards the end of October bringing ‘substantial snowfall’ across Scotland, northern and central England.

It could herald the start of a four-month Polar assault with snow and sub-zero temperatures threatening to grip the nation until February.

Britain could be facing a worse freeze than that wrought by the Beast from the East which brought swathes of the country to a shivering standstill earlier this year.

Despite forecasts for milder conditions over the next few days forecasters are sounding alarm bells for the mercury to plummet within weeks.

Weather Action’s Plers Corbyn said: “We are expecting some quite severe snowfall before the end of this month and it will not just be confined to the far north, this could reach parts of the Midlands or even further south."

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1031836/uk-weather-forecast-latest-met-office-forecast-long-range-forecast-uk-winter-forecast

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

Why does a right wing news paper like the Express take the far left Pi ers Corbyn's) forecast as Gospel!? Does his brother Jeremy Corbyn have anything to do with this? Share's int he Tabloid?

Thanks for sharing once again but it seems very similar to this article.:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1022501/uk-weather-forecast-winter-2018-coldest-snow-long-range-met-office-winds-temperatures-late

 

 

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Rob K
17 October 2018 09:31:51
"Four-month Polar assault" - I think they've seen Brian's bears.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gavin D
18 October 2018 11:48:26

The met office are working on a new website and it's now available to use

https://beta.metoffice.gov.uk/ 

Gary L
18 October 2018 15:16:22

The met office are working on a new website and it's now available to use

https://beta.metoffice.gov.uk/

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Deary me, the lines to indicate continuation of initial conditions are absolutely awful. 

tierradelfuego
18 October 2018 18:01:57

 

Deary me, the lines to indicate continuation of initial conditions are absolutely awful. 

Originally Posted by: Gary L 

 

Sure are, as is some of the daily text forecast dumbing down...

My forecast for Sunday with serious 14mph gusts - "Fog changing to cloudy by late morning. Gusts will make small trees sway by the evening, but it shouldn't blow you over." and then Tuesday at 27mph gusts - "Cloudy. Noticeably gusty, with umbrellas becoming hard to use."

Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Gary L
19 October 2018 06:50:42

 

 

Sure are, as is some of the daily text forecast dumbing down...

My forecast for Sunday with serious 14mph gusts - "Fog changing to cloudy by late morning. Gusts will make small trees sway by the evening, but it shouldn't blow you over." and then Tuesday at 27mph gusts - "Cloudy. Noticeably gusty, with umbrellas becoming hard to use."

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 

But it isn't raining? 

tallyho_83
19 October 2018 13:09:25

 

But it isn't raining? 

Originally Posted by: Gary L 

 

17% chance of rain next Friday? 😛 Otherwise a week of sun or partly cloudy!!

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2649808

What has happened to the Atlantic zonal flow and wind and rain we would normally get?!

 

 

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Solar Cycles
19 October 2018 14:26:36
It’s coming....... 😁

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Nov 2018 to Saturday 17 Nov 2018:

A north to northwesterly scenario is looking likely during this period, with changeable conditions dominating across northern parts at first. However, conditions may turn more widely unsettled at times, with heaviest rain and stronger winds more likely to be across the north. By mid-November there are signals for high pressure to develop to the north of the UK, with 'blocked' conditions becoming established. This may result in fog and frost becoming more likely, especially in the north. Meanwhile, more changeable conditions may become established across the south and west, with some rain at times. Temperatures are likely to be mostly below normal, with a greater likelihood of frost as well as some snow for higher ground in the north. Any milder spells are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

tallyho_83
20 October 2018 14:39:38

It’s coming....... 😁

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Nov 2018 to Saturday 17 Nov 2018:

A north to northwesterly scenario is looking likely during this period, with changeable conditions dominating across northern parts at first. However, conditions may turn more widely unsettled at times, with heaviest rain and stronger winds more likely to be across the north. By mid-November there are signals for high pressure to develop to the north of the UK, with 'blocked' conditions becoming established. This may result in fog and frost becoming more likely, especially in the north. Meanwhile, more changeable conditions may become established across the south and west, with some rain at times. Temperatures are likely to be mostly below normal, with a greater likelihood of frost as well as some snow for higher ground in the north. Any milder spells are likely to be short-lived.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Latest: - didn't mention short lived milder spells though!?

UK Outlook for Sunday 4 Nov 2018 to Sunday 18 Nov 2018:

The weather may be changeable and windy at times with bands of rain or showers, especially in the north. The rain could change to snow at times on northern hills. Cold nights are likely at times with a risk of ice on roads and pavements in the mornings. Towards the middle of the month, there are signs that high pressure may become more dominant to the north, bringing more generally settled conditions at times. However, fog and frost would become more likely. Meanwhile, more changeable and milder weather may become established across the south, with some rain here at times.

Updated: 02:27 on Sat 20 Oct 2018 BST

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gavin D
20 October 2018 14:46:53
Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Oct 2018 to Saturday 3 Nov 2018:

On Thursday, mainly dry weather is expected in the south, but patchy rain and stronger winds in the north are likely to spread south. From Friday, a change to much colder weather accompanied by sunshine and showers is expected. By next weekend, cold northerly winds will probably bring snow to higher ground in the north and perhaps occasionally to low levels here also. However snow is unlikely to settle at low levels. It will be windy with gales in places, especially the east. Night frost could become widespread with icy patches possible. Many places will become dry and bright from the northwest by the end of next weekend However, more changeable and at times windy conditions will probably become established at the end of this month and going into November.

UK Outlook for Sunday 4 Nov 2018 to Sunday 18 Nov 2018:

The weather may be changeable and windy at times with bands of rain or showers, especially in the north. The rain could change to snow at times on northern hills. Cold nights are likely at times with a risk of ice on roads and pavements in the mornings. Towards the middle of the month, there are signs that high pressure may become more dominant to the north, bringing more generally settled conditions at times. However, fog and frost would become more likely. Meanwhile, more changeable and milder weather may become established across the south, with some rain here at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

tallyho_83
20 October 2018 14:50:33

Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Oct 2018 to Saturday 3 Nov 2018:

On Thursday, mainly dry weather is expected in the south, but patchy rain and stronger winds in the north are likely to spread south. From Friday, a change to much colder weather accompanied by sunshine and showers is expected. By next weekend, cold northerly winds will probably bring snow to higher ground in the north and perhaps occasionally to low levels here also. However snow is unlikely to settle at low levels. It will be windy with gales in places, especially the east. Night frost could become widespread with icy patches possible. Many places will become dry and bright from the northwest by the end of next weekend However, more changeable and at times windy conditions will probably become established at the end of this month and going into November.

UK Outlook for Sunday 4 Nov 2018 to Sunday 18 Nov 2018:

The weather may be changeable and windy at times with bands of rain or showers, especially in the north. The rain could change to snow at times on northern hills. Cold nights are likely at times with a risk of ice on roads and pavements in the mornings. Towards the middle of the month, there are signs that high pressure may become more dominant to the north, bringing more generally settled conditions at times. However, fog and frost would become more likely. Meanwhile, more changeable and milder weather may become established across the south, with some rain here at times.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

They didn't say turning milder - just milder may become established across south but with HP being dominant to the north this denotes a blocked pattern still, so it's good news!! Been years since we saw a cold November - let's hope this lasts into December and towards Xmas  then! 

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gavin D
21 October 2018 15:39:45
Next weekend

Cold snap

Strong northerly wind

Snow on northern hills

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/45929372 

Gavin D
23 October 2018 11:17:49
Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Oct 2018 to Tuesday 6 Nov 2018:

By Sunday a cold arctic airflow will be in place across the UK, bringing a good deal of sunshine and some heavy showers, mainly around eastern coastal areas. Hail and thunder is likely, with snow showers over higher ground in the north, and it will feel bitter in exposed areas. Confidence lowers by Monday, but it is most likely that many places will see a dry and bright day with showers continuing in the east, but widespread frost overnight. From Tuesday a spell of increasingly unsettled weather looks likely, with showers or longer spells of rain between brighter interludes. Gales or severe gales can be expected, but temperatures should begin to recover to around normal by Friday with milder, unsettled conditions likely to dominate until the end of the period.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Nov 2018 to Wednesday 21 Nov 2018:

Mild but unsettled conditions are likely to be in place by the second week of November with dry and bright spells interspersed with bands of rain or showers. Confidence into and beyond the middle of November is low, but there are some signs of high pressure developing which could help to divert weather systems away from the UK. If such a scenario develops then longer settled spells could bring largely dry conditions, but a greater chance of overnight frost and fog, and daytime temperatures below normal. Any rain or showers could fall as snow over northern hills, and any milder interludes are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
23 October 2018 17:01:11
TWO has made it into the sun

WHITE FRIGHT Up to 4 INCHES of snow forecast in -5C ‘white Halloween’ – see if YOU are affected with our UK weather maps

People in North London, Cambridge and parts of Surrey and Kent may even see a scattering of snowflakes on Saturday evening, weather charts predict

"Brian Glaze, director and forecaster for the Weather Outlook, told The Sun Online: "The cold conditions are expected to push southwards on Friday and in the north showers could begin turning to snow. By Saturday all of the UK is likely to be under a cold northerly air stream.

Showers are expected with most of them in coastal districts and the north, where they could increasingly turn to snow.

Over high ground in the north settling snow is possible and the Scottish mountains could see accumulations of 5cm to 10cm."

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7559675/uk-weather-forecast-white-halloween-inch-snow-maps-local-area/ 

Arcus
23 October 2018 17:42:24

TWO has made it into the sun

WHITE FRIGHT Up to 4 INCHES of snow forecast in -5C ‘white Halloween’ – see if YOU are affected with our UK weather maps

People in North London, Cambridge and parts of Surrey and Kent may even see a scattering of snowflakes on Saturday evening, weather charts predict

"Brian Glaze, director and forecaster for the Weather Outlook, told The Sun Online: "The cold conditions are expected to push southwards on Friday and in the north showers could begin turning to snow. By Saturday all of the UK is likely to be under a cold northerly air stream.

Showers are expected with most of them in coastal districts and the north, where they could increasingly turn to snow.

Over high ground in the north settling snow is possible and the Scottish mountains could see accumulations of 5cm to 10cm."

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7559675/uk-weather-forecast-white-halloween-inch-snow-maps-local-area/

Oh dear. That's taken the gloss off it.

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

tallyho_83
23 October 2018 18:28:02

Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Nov 2018 to Wednesday 21 Nov 2018:

Mild but unsettled conditions are likely to be in place by the second week of November with dry and bright spells interspersed with bands of rain or showers. Confidence into and beyond the middle of November is low, but there are some signs of high pressure developing which could help to divert weather systems away from the UK. If such a scenario develops then longer settled spells could bring largely dry conditions, but a greater chance of overnight frost and fog, and daytime temperatures below normal. Any rain or showers could fall as snow over northern hills, and any milder interludes are likely to be short-lived.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

The start of the 'Four Months of Snow!' ha! But looks promising to say the least.

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Gavin D
23 October 2018 20:12:55
This weekend

Cold with biting wind

Lots of sunshine

Some wintry showers

Considerably milder by mid next week?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/45960535 

tallyho_83
23 October 2018 22:41:38

This weekend

Cold with biting wind
Lots of sunshine
Some wintry showers

Considerably milder by mid next week?

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/45960535

 

i DON'T KNOW WHAT she means by considerably milder....- i think she means feeling less cold! (as northerly winds ease and winds turn south easterly!) Could be a sign for frost and fog! We certainly won't return to daytime temps close to or above 20c again this year that's for sure!?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

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