The Weather Outlook

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tallyho_83
24 October 2018 00:25:02
@ 01:15 looks mouth watering! Either way dry and cold winter it looks like according to this forecast?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Maunder Minimum
24 October 2018 08:49:18

@ 01:15 looks mouth watering! Either way dry and cold winter it looks like according to this forecast?

https://youtu.be/fOZxwlq8Lsk

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Very consistent with a durable Scandi blocking HP cell. Will be a fun winter if that comes to pass, although the lack of forecast precipitation in the BI is of concern.

But it is but one long range forecast and no more certain than any other - i.e. imaginary.


New world order coming.
Solar Cycles
24 October 2018 09:24:12

 

Very consistent with a durable Scandi blocking HP cell. Will be a fun winter if that comes to pass, although the lack of forecast precipitation in the BI is of concern.

But it is but one long range forecast and no more certain than any other - i.e. imaginary.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Their updates have been consistent thus far in promoting a blocking signal with the UK on the cold side of the block. Now for the tricky bit of it verifying. 😎

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
24 October 2018 09:42:28

">https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7559675/uk-weather-forecast-white-halloween-inch-snow-maps-local-area/

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Oh dear. That's taken the gloss off it.

Or even the goss :)


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Brian Gaze
24 October 2018 09:51:09

Oh dear. That's taken the gloss off it.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Looks correct to me?

Brian Gaze, director and forecaster for the Weather Outlook, told The Sun Online: "The cold conditions are expected to push southwards on Friday and in the north showers could begin turning to snow. By Saturday all of the UK is likely to be under a cold northerly air stream.

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7559675/uk-weather-forecast-white-halloween-inch-snow-maps-local-area/

 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

doctormog
24 October 2018 09:54:48

Did you tell them or did they spot the mistake themselves and correct it?

Edit: The Scottish version still has the typo: https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/3390817/scotland-weather-forecast-wednesday-october-24-scottish-halloween/ 


tallyho_83
24 October 2018 10:12:26

Simon Keeling of the Online weather forecast winds to become easterly end of November:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm

 

Month ahead - October 21, 2018

 

Valid from 27/10 to 23/11 2018

Valid from 27/10 to 23/11 2018

Issued: Monday 22nd October 2018 
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling


Cold and showery, wetter mid month 

A cold month is expected as the winds become more northerly. Showers at first may give way to more widespread unsettled conditions through the middle stages of the month. Things may improve later although it stays cold

*27/10/18 - 3/11/18* 
A chilly and mixed week. Showers at first, some heavy. Turning drier as the week progresses. 

*4/11/18 - 10/11/18* 
Unsettled and chilly. Jet stream close by. Periods of rain. Risk of sleet on hills. 

*11/11/18 - 17/11/18* 
Remaining unsettled and cold. Rain and strong winds. Snow on hills, risk sleet low levels. 

*18/11/18 - 24/11/18* 
Cold and unsettled start. Gradual improvement, high building north and west. Increasing risk of frost as week progresses, especially north. 

*25/11/18 - 1/12/18* 
Flow may be more easterly. Chilly and frost, fog. Chance rain and sleet in south. 

**ends** 

Simon Keeling 
Email me at [email protected]


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Rob K
24 October 2018 10:24:36

Did you tell them or did they spot the mistake themselves and correct it?

Edit: The Scottish version still has the typo: https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/3390817/scotland-weather-forecast-wednesday-october-24-scottish-halloween/ 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

If that forecast comes off it'll be the icing on the cake for Mr Glaze 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

nsrobins
24 October 2018 10:57:27

 

 

If that forecast comes off it'll be the icing on the cake for Mr Glaze 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Can you have a ‘plume’ of cold air? I thought cold intrusions were ‘blasts’? 😉🧐


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Gavin D
24 October 2018 20:15:06

This weekend

Cold with biting wind
Lots of sunshine
Some wintry showers

Next week

More mobile
Spells of rain
Return to average temperatures?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/45973106

Gavin D
25 October 2018 20:07:17

Further ahead

Starting chilly
Wet and windy
Temperatures recovering

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/45983450

 

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
26 October 2018 08:16:21

Did you tell them or did they spot the mistake themselves and correct it?

Edit: The Scottish version still has the typo: https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/3390817/scotland-weather-forecast-wednesday-october-24-scottish-halloween/ 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Despite reamining cloudy in many parts of the country, many will enjoy a realtively mild day and night.

However, it will remain blusetry and unsettled in much of the north and north west of Scotland as high winds continue to sweep in, while gales are also predicted to batter the northern islands.

I found three.  

But one of the quotes from a professional forecaster they know seems to be typo free.

Brian McGlaze, director and forecaster for the Weather Outlook, told The Sun Online: “The cold conditions are expected to push southwards on Friday and in the north showers could begin turning to snow. By Saturday all of the UK is likely to be under a cold northerly air stream.

Showers are expected with most of them in coastal districts and the north, where they could increasingly turn to snow.

Over high ground in the north settling snow is possible and the Scottish mountains could see accumulations of 5cm to 10cm.”

I hope they paid a generous fee.

We pay for your stories and videos! Do you have a story or video for The Scottish Sun? Email us at [email protected] or call 0141 420 5200


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

doctormog
26 October 2018 10:39:52
Another first for the season. A snow and ice warning has been issued for parts of Scotland (and an ice one for NI)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-10-26 


Gavin D
26 October 2018 11:23:03
Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 31 Oct 2018 to Friday 9 Nov 2018:

On Wednesday patchy rain in the south should gradually clear, then most places dry with bright or sunny spells, but with scattered blustery showers in the west. By Thursday strong winds and local gales are likely in the north, with some heavy rain at times, whilst further south it should remain more settled. Looking further ahead it's most likely that changeable weather prevails, with further spells of rain likely in the north, perhaps spreading southeast at times. There will be some drier and brighter interludes too, initially in the south, but later in the northwest, and there is a risk of strong winds almost anywhere. Temperatures will start cold or rather cold, but soon recover to normal and locally mild at times, but with frost possible in any clearer interludes.

UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Nov 2018 to Saturday 24 Nov 2018:

Confidence through the outlook period remains low, however it seems most likely that changeable conditions will dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers, but also some drier brighter spells at times. There are some signs that high pressure may develop across the north and east towards mid November, which may result in more settled weather with overnight frost and fog more likely. However, more changeable conditions could still become established at times. Temperatures generally below normal, with a greater likelihood of frost as well as some snow for higher ground, especially in the north, with any mild spells likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
26 October 2018 19:50:27
Into next weekend

Milder

Wet and breezy at times

Drier and brighter interludes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/45996580 

Gavin D
26 October 2018 20:23:59

BBC monthly outlook

Tuesday 23 October—Sunday 28 October

Later this week, much chillier than recently.

A dry and bright day for large parts of England and Wales on Wednesday with spells of sunshine, these longest in the south and east. It will be another mild day in the south and east too with highs of around 15 or 16 Celsius. Meanwhile, much of Scotland and Northern Ireland will have a cloudy and breezy day, albeit less windy than on Tuesday. There will be some spots of rain for western areas with more persistent rain for the north-west Highlands. Staying drier and brighter though over eastern Scotland. On Thursday, central, southern and eastern areas of the UK will be mostly dry and bright again with some hazy sunshine. North-western areas will again see more cloud and some spots of rain; heavier rain for north-west Scotland. Indeed, this heavier rain will be associated with a cold front that will sweep southwards on Thursday night, introducing colder air originating from the Arctic. Friday will then be a chillier day than for most than of late, with a brisk north to north-westerly wind.

Any rain will clear southwards, leaving most areas with some bright or sunny spells. However, there will also be showers, these most frequent over north Wales and northern Scotland, where some hail and upland snow could be mixed-in overnight. This weekend will then be a much colder with highs of only 5-10 Celsius quite widely; last weekend highs reached nearer 20 Celsius in places. Most areas will have some decent bright or sunny periods but there will be further showers in places. The showers are likely to be focused over northern Scotland, near to North Sea coasts and also through the Irish Sea, into parts of west Wales and Cornwall. Indeed, the showers moving over western fringes of Wales and into Cornwall could form into a line, know as the Pembrokeshire Dangler, bringing more persistent rain and hail for some. Indeed, some of the showers could have a wintry flavour with upland snow mixed-in. A risk of frost in the nights this weekend, too.

Monday 29 October—Sunday 4 November

A change of month, a change in the weather

A cold start to the week with highs only reaching around 5-10 Celsius on Monday with a chilly north or north-easterly wind in places. Early in the week, showers or some longer spells of rain are likely to be focused over eastern and north-eastern fringes of the UK with the best of the drier and brighter conditions over central and western areas. Again, there is a risk of overnight frost under any prolonged clear breaks. As the week progresses, we should gradually lose the feed of cold air from the north-east, eventually becoming replaced by milder air from the south-east for the first days of November. Indeed, the risk of overnight frosts will decrease as the week progresses. Meanwhile, it is likely to become wetter in places. Outbreaks of rain could become quite widespread over England and Wales through the week with a risk of some high rainfall totals. Meanwhile, Scotland and Northern Ireland is likely to have mixed conditions through the week with rain at times but also some drier and brighter days. The main uncertainty to the forecast for next week is over the timing of milder air arriving; there is a slight chance that it remains chilly through much of the week.

Monday 5 November—Sunday 18 November

Wet and breezy. No prolonged cold expected

Much of early to mid-November is expected to experience rather wet conditions with brisk winds at times. Indeed, it looks as though there will be a lack of any prolonged dry and settled weather. Outbreaks of rain could be quite widespread for a time but there are indications that the focus of the wet weather could be over western and northern areas of the UK by the middle of the month. Rainfall amounts are favoured to return to nearer normal for November over eastern areas of England. This is because an area of high pressure may develop to the east of the UK by the middle of the month. Meanwhile, temperatures are likely to be quite variable, with mild spells interspersed by occasionally chillier weather moving in from the north or north-west. However, it looks as though any cold spells should be fairly short-lived; no signs yet of any significant wintry weather ahead in the outlook. The main area of uncertainty is over the track of low pressure areas expected near to the UK through this period. There is a chance that low pressure ends up being further to the east or south-east than expected, which would allow for some lengthier drier, settled periods but this would also bring a higher chance of overnight frost and fog. Currently, though, the main focus appears to be on wet and breezy conditions for many.

Next Update

We will take another look to see if rain and wind are likely to be more predominant than dry weather and frosts. Will we have a damp squib for Guy Fawkes Night?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Gavin D
28 October 2018 13:15:03
Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Nov 2018 to Sunday 11 Nov 2018:

Friday is likely to start dry in most central and eastern districts with some hazy sunshine. However outbreaks of rain in the west will move across all areas with windy conditions developing, giving gales in places. Brighter, showery conditions will probably follow on Saturday. Looking further ahead, generally changeable weather is likely to continue, giving further spells of rain particularly across the northwest, with heavy rain spreading to other parts at times. Snow is likely at times on northern hills. There will be some drier and brighter interludes too, especially in the south, then perhaps more widely later. Gales will occur at times, particularly in the west. Temperatures will be near normal to rather cold, although it could be locally mild at times. Overnight frosts are likely in drier interludes.

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Nov 2018 to Monday 26 Nov 2018:

Confidence through this period remains low. However it seems most likely that changeable conditions will dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers, but also some drier, brighter spells at times. There are some signs that high pressure may develop towards mid November, which may result in more settled weather with overnight frost and fog more likely, especially in the north and east. However, more changeable conditions could still occur at times. Temperatures will probably be somewhat below normal generally, with a greater likelihood of frost, as well as some snow for higher ground, especially in the north. Any mild spells are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

David M Porter
28 October 2018 16:17:34

Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Nov 2018 to Sunday 11 Nov 2018:

Friday is likely to start dry in most central and eastern districts with some hazy sunshine. However outbreaks of rain in the west will move across all areas with windy conditions developing, giving gales in places. Brighter, showery conditions will probably follow on Saturday. Looking further ahead, generally changeable weather is likely to continue, giving further spells of rain particularly across the northwest, with heavy rain spreading to other parts at times. Snow is likely at times on northern hills. There will be some drier and brighter interludes too, especially in the south, then perhaps more widely later. Gales will occur at times, particularly in the west. Temperatures will be near normal to rather cold, although it could be locally mild at times. Overnight frosts are likely in drier interludes.

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Nov 2018 to Monday 26 Nov 2018:

Confidence through this period remains low. However it seems most likely that changeable conditions will dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers, but also some drier, brighter spells at times. There are some signs that high pressure may develop towards mid November, which may result in more settled weather with overnight frost and fog more likely, especially in the north and east. However, more changeable conditions could still occur at times. Temperatures will probably be somewhat below normal generally, with a greater likelihood of frost, as well as some snow for higher ground, especially in the north. Any mild spells are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Doesn't look to be an overly mild forecast for either period from what I can see.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Gavin D
28 October 2018 17:03:56
Next week

Unsettled

Showers at times

Drier interludes

Average temperatures

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46012207 

Gavin D
29 October 2018 12:49:29
Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Nov 2018 to Monday 12 Nov 2018:

Next weekend is likely to bring a spell of wet and windy weather, with potentially stormy conditions. However it will be a little milder than what we currently have. Looking further ahead into the following week, it will be unsettled with some clear and sunny interludes, but interspersed with showers and longer spells of rain too. The heaviest rain is more likely in the west, whereas eastern parts of the UK will be a little drier. Snow is likely at times on northern hills. It will be windy at times with gales, particularly in the west. Temperatures will be near normal to rather cold, although it could be quite mild at times. Overnight frosts are likely in the drier interludes.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Nov 2018 to Tuesday 27 Nov 2018:

There is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and it may change nearer the time, depending on how the weather develops. However, it seems most likely that changeable conditions will dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers, but also some drier, brighter spells at times. There are some signs that high pressure may develop towards mid November, which may result in more settled weather with overnight frost and fog more likely, especially in the north and east. However, more changeable conditions could still occur at times. Temperatures will probably be somewhat below average, with a greater likelihood of frost, as well as some snow for higher ground, especially in the north. Any mild spells are likely to be short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

PFCSCOTTY
29 October 2018 13:42:32

[quote=Gavin D;1045897]Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Nov 2018 to Monday 12 Nov 2018:

Next weekend is likely to bring a spell of wet and windy weather, with potentially stormy conditions. However it will be a little milder than what we currently have. Looking further ahead into the following week, it will be unsettled with some clear and sunny interludes, but interspersed with showers and longer spells of rain too. The heaviest rain is more likely in the west, whereas eastern parts of the UK will be a little drier. Snow is likely at times on northern hills. It will be windy at times with gales, particularly in the west. Temperatures will be near normal to rather cold, although it could be quite mild at times. Overnight frosts are likely in the drier interludes.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Nov 2018 to Tuesday 27 Nov 2018:

There is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and it may change nearer the time, depending on how the weather develops. However, it seems most likely that changeable conditions will dominate at first with a mixture of rain and showers, but also some drier, brighter spells at times. There are some signs that high pressure may develop towards mid November, which may result in more settled weather with overnight frost and fog more likely, especially in the north and east. However, more changeable conditions could still occur at times. Temperatures will probably be somewhat below average, with a greater likelihood of frost, as well as some snow for higher ground, especially in the north. Any mild spells are likely to be short-lived.

If ever there was a demonstration of just how useless these “best guess” forecasts are and how they little they offer to business, commerce or individuals, then the paragraph covering that 2 week period highlighted is a great example of why these should be scrapped and any money wasted on them put to good use elsewhere. 

As an individual it offers nothing, as someone who is running a buisiness outdoors, in farming and growing, in retail or in clothing  etc...it offers nothing at all..”.it may change nearer the time depending on how the weather develops” ....what a load of ** **. 

 

 

Brian Gaze
29 October 2018 14:07:46

The issue I have with "it may change nearer the time depending on how the weather develops" is that it could be applied to any weather forecast for more than a few days ahead. The implication would seem to be that sometimes those day 16 to 30 (or whatever they are) outlooks are a certainty, and as we know here that is never the case. It is all down to levels of confidence, not black and white assertions.  


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

SEMerc
29 October 2018 14:10:41

The issue I have with "it may change nearer the time depending on how the weather develops" is that it could be applied to any weather forecast for more than a few days ahead. The implication would seem to be that sometimes those day 16 to 30 (or whatever they are) outlooks are a certainty, and as we know here that is never the case. It is all down to levels of confidence, not black and white assertions.  

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Even by the Met's standards that's an absolute belter.

Gandalf The White
29 October 2018 14:16:21

If ever there was a demonstration of just how useless these “best guess” forecasts are and how they little they offer to business, commerce or individuals, then the paragraph covering that 2 week period highlighted is a great example of why these should be scrapped and any money wasted on them put to good use elsewhere. 

As an individual it offers nothing, as someone who is running a buisiness outdoors, in farming and growing, in retail or in clothing  etc...it offers nothing at all..”.it may change nearer the time depending on how the weather develops” ....what a load of ** **. 

 

 

Originally Posted by: PFCSCOTTY 

I don't agree. If there are mixed signals emerging from the forecasting models what would you have them do?  Put out a forecast that says "it's too difficult to tell so we're not making a forecast"?

They're highlighting the uncertainties and I think that's fine.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gandalf The White
29 October 2018 14:20:50

The issue I have with "it may change nearer the time depending on how the weather develops" is that it could be applied to any weather forecast for more than a few days ahead. The implication would seem to be that sometimes those day 16 to 30 (or whatever they are) outlooks are a certainty, and as we know here that is never the case. It is all down to levels of confidence, not black and white assertions.  

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Perhaps the wording might have been better but isn't it essentially just saying that the pattern is finely balanced?  It feels not dissimilar to the situation where a forecast hurricane can fundamentally alter the pattern across the North Atlantic, for example.

But I agree completely about it being around levels of confidence and generally that come across in the written forecasts - as it does in this latest one.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



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