BBC monthly outlook
Tuesday 23 October—Sunday 28 October
Later this week, much chillier than recently.
A dry and bright day for large parts of England and Wales on Wednesday with spells of sunshine, these longest in the south and east. It will be another mild day in the south and east too with highs of around 15 or 16 Celsius. Meanwhile, much of Scotland and Northern Ireland will have a cloudy and breezy day, albeit less windy than on Tuesday. There will be some spots of rain for western areas with more persistent rain for the north-west Highlands. Staying drier and brighter though over eastern Scotland. On Thursday, central, southern and eastern areas of the UK will be mostly dry and bright again with some hazy sunshine. North-western areas will again see more cloud and some spots of rain; heavier rain for north-west Scotland. Indeed, this heavier rain will be associated with a cold front that will sweep southwards on Thursday night, introducing colder air originating from the Arctic. Friday will then be a chillier day than for most than of late, with a brisk north to north-westerly wind.
Any rain will clear southwards, leaving most areas with some bright or sunny spells. However, there will also be showers, these most frequent over north Wales and northern Scotland, where some hail and upland snow could be mixed-in overnight. This weekend will then be a much colder with highs of only 5-10 Celsius quite widely; last weekend highs reached nearer 20 Celsius in places. Most areas will have some decent bright or sunny periods but there will be further showers in places. The showers are likely to be focused over northern Scotland, near to North Sea coasts and also through the Irish Sea, into parts of west Wales and Cornwall. Indeed, the showers moving over western fringes of Wales and into Cornwall could form into a line, know as the Pembrokeshire Dangler, bringing more persistent rain and hail for some. Indeed, some of the showers could have a wintry flavour with upland snow mixed-in. A risk of frost in the nights this weekend, too.
Monday 29 October—Sunday 4 November
A change of month, a change in the weather
A cold start to the week with highs only reaching around 5-10 Celsius on Monday with a chilly north or north-easterly wind in places. Early in the week, showers or some longer spells of rain are likely to be focused over eastern and north-eastern fringes of the UK with the best of the drier and brighter conditions over central and western areas. Again, there is a risk of overnight frost under any prolonged clear breaks. As the week progresses, we should gradually lose the feed of cold air from the north-east, eventually becoming replaced by milder air from the south-east for the first days of November. Indeed, the risk of overnight frosts will decrease as the week progresses. Meanwhile, it is likely to become wetter in places. Outbreaks of rain could become quite widespread over England and Wales through the week with a risk of some high rainfall totals. Meanwhile, Scotland and Northern Ireland is likely to have mixed conditions through the week with rain at times but also some drier and brighter days. The main uncertainty to the forecast for next week is over the timing of milder air arriving; there is a slight chance that it remains chilly through much of the week.
Monday 5 November—Sunday 18 November
Wet and breezy. No prolonged cold expected
Much of early to mid-November is expected to experience rather wet conditions with brisk winds at times. Indeed, it looks as though there will be a lack of any prolonged dry and settled weather. Outbreaks of rain could be quite widespread for a time but there are indications that the focus of the wet weather could be over western and northern areas of the UK by the middle of the month. Rainfall amounts are favoured to return to nearer normal for November over eastern areas of England. This is because an area of high pressure may develop to the east of the UK by the middle of the month. Meanwhile, temperatures are likely to be quite variable, with mild spells interspersed by occasionally chillier weather moving in from the north or north-west. However, it looks as though any cold spells should be fairly short-lived; no signs yet of any significant wintry weather ahead in the outlook. The main area of uncertainty is over the track of low pressure areas expected near to the UK through this period. There is a chance that low pressure ends up being further to the east or south-east than expected, which would allow for some lengthier drier, settled periods but this would also bring a higher chance of overnight frost and fog. Currently, though, the main focus appears to be on wet and breezy conditions for many.
Next Update
We will take another look to see if rain and wind are likely to be more predominant than dry weather and frosts. Will we have a damp squib for Guy Fawkes Night?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook