My mojo perks every time I go through getting the daily 10. Different from Met Office Hadley CET. Their are other stations out there. 

Given the outlook, my prediction of 9.9°C is well and truly stuffed. I might just drop into last place in the competition at the end of this month! 

Met Office Hadley         13.4c.    Anomaly     1.1c   Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                      12.41c   Anomaly     1.90c

Netweather                   13.3c    Anomaly      2.91c

Clevedon Weather          14.5c    Anomaly      2.56c

Hexam                          10.4c    Anomaly      -0.24c

Mansfield Weather         12.3c    Anomaly      0.5c

Peasedown St John    13.49c     Anomaly     1.5c

1 Steady  3  Down   6 Up

Mean of my 10     12.55c.                

The CET will drop over 1C this weekend due to very cold conditions today and a very cold night tonight. Just 8.4C where I am at the moment. 

But next week things turn very mild indeed. By the middle of the month the CET could be back to around 12.9C. Beyond that maybe a very gradual cool down.

You will notice there is a very big gap at the moment between my CET figures and Hadley's. This is almost all down to the data for the 4th. I have a mean of 13.5C for the 4th whereas Hadley has posted a figure of 15.5C. No idea how Hadley comes up with that number but it is complete rubbish. I do wonder if it is a typo. Hadley is also 1C above my figure for the 1st. The other days are within 0.2C.

So just bear in mind that the Hadley mean is seriously overstated at the moment (by about 0.6C).

Something to watch out for this time next week is possible date records. The date record is above 25C every day until the 13th when it starts to drop away quite quickly. While I think temperatures could get up to around 22-23C during the second half of next week that won't be enough to get a date record.

However, this morning's ECM run shows the heat holding on until Sunday. By this stage the date record is dropping. The date record for the 14th is 23.0C. The chart below shows a maximum around 23.5C. So that would be a record if it verified.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/greater-london/temperature-f/20181014-1200z.html

The chart for Monday is also quite warm with a maximum around 22C. The date record for the 15th is 22.8C.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/dorset/temperature-f/20181015-1200z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/bedfordshire/temperature-f/20181015-1200z.html

Have Hadley down down as 12.3c Anomaly 0.1 to the 3rd.  For the 4th  13.1 Anomaly 0.9c.

All seems possible, now that Trawscoed has those 2 November date records at 22°C +

Well would you just look at that; the tide has turned again and now the warmth is indeed being extended into the week after next. At least I saw one thing coming .

Strange to see this trend given that with the MJO projected to move to phase 2 (western Indian Ocean) and decline, and the atmosphere not having established a proper Nino-like state to counteract the forcing from that MJO activity, the temperature anomaly trend really ought to be down rather than up beyond the end of next week (even using my usual model guidance + long-range signals combination I'd have 'only' estimated 11.4*C this month due to indications of this pattern change).

Trouble is, this use of tropical activity to guide expectations assumes that the past offers a suitable guide for the future... but with the Arctic sea ice now on par with the lowest on record having undergone an extreme delay to the refreeze, I fear this may not be the case anymore! 

Those with CET estimates in the 9s or 10s best hope these models are giving next week's pattern too much inertia and are therefore overlooking a marked pattern change to come.

Should this not occur, then I think it will be a strong case study to support a link between Arctic amplification and weather patterns becoming 'stuck' for a longer duration.

At least I can't completely lose out this month because when it comes down to it, I greatly enjoy experiencing tangibly warm conditions unusually late in the autumn season... and I happen to be off work next week .

Nice post there James.

Met Office Hadley        12.7c.     Anomaly     0.4c  Provisional to 6th

Metcheck                     11.43c    Anomaly     0.92c

Netweather                  12.59c    Anomaly     2.2c  

Alton                            11.4c     Anomaly     -1.34c

Canvey Island               12.0c     Anomaly     -1.14c

Cheadle Hulme              11.8c     Anomaly     0.62c

Clevedon Weather          13.6c     Anomaly    -2.42c

Darwen                         10.7c     Anomaly    -1.24c

Hexam                           9.1c      Anomaly    -1.54c

Mount Sorrel                  10.9c     Anomaly    -0.9c

Mansfield Weather          11.3c     Anomaly     -0.92c

Peasedown     St John     12.63c   Anomaly     0.65c

Treviskey   Redruth         12.3c.    Anomaly     0.42c.           

10 Down today.

Mean of 10 = 11.57c

Hope you've all had a good weekend, whatever the weather .

Today's seen a cooler trend for the week after next in the model output as a whole - but mainly by day, with the GFS 12z for example giving me an estimate of 11.4*C as of 23rd which is still a smidgen above average. LTA conditions thereafter would land the final CET close to 10.7*C. The run instead ends with a chilly pattern setting up, for which typical values would land the CET near 10*C instead, but this is purely speculative at such long range; if instead it returned to warmer than average then a finish some way through the 11s could still occur.

The overall theme of a cool second half seems to have really fought back today after seeming to fade yesterday. It could still be a red herring though. Only time will tell for sure!

Met Office Hadley        12.0c.       Anomaly       -0.3c.  Provisional to 7th

Metcheck                     11.25c      Anomaly       0.74c

Netweather                  11.93c      Anomaly       1.54c

Clevedon Weather         13.4c       Anomaly       -2.22c

Mansfield Weather       11.4c      Anomaly       =0.32c

Peasedown St John     11.99c       Anomaly     00.01c.

Treviskey Redruth        12.6c       Anomaly      -0.12c

4 Up  6 Down

 Mean  of my 10   11.60c.   

Well October looks like it's "up for grabs" at the moment but I'm thinking we could follow August and September and have a CET month that's not too far from average in the end?

Met Office Hadley      11.9c.      Anomaly       -0.3c.  Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                   11.45c     Anomaly      0.95c

Netweather                12.01c     Anomaly       1.62c

Mansfield Weather      11.9c       Anomaly       0.18    

Peasedown st John.     11.84c    Anomaly        -0.14c,

1 Down  1 Steady  8  Up. Mean of My 10  = 12.04c.

Could be a warm night watch on Friday night. Temperatures actually start to rise after dark and by early morning (4am-6am) Saturday large swathes of England are showing temperatures of between 17 and 19°C in the 0100 Arpege (may be a redundant link if you catch this afterthe 1300 has come out):

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=00&charthour=77&chartname=uk2mtmpsohd&chartregion=uk-s&charttag=2m%20temp%20C

Not sure what the mid-October record high min would be. Had a 17°C min in early Oct 1985 and a couple of 16s in 2006.

CET 12.2C provisional to 9th.

Met Office Hadley          12.2c.      Anomaly      0.1c.  Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                       11.6c       Anomaly      1.14c

Netweather                    12.25c     Anomaly      1.86c

Clevedon Weather          13.5c       Anomaly      2.32c

Hexam                          10.7c       Anomaly      -0.06c

Mansfield Weather          12.1c       Anomaly      0.38c

Peasedown St John         12.03c     Anomaly      0.13c

5 Down and 5 Up Today

Mean of my 10     12.04c            

Clevedon looking warm Art & with southerlies for a few days crossing those Dorset hills first, it could be a high mean there by the end of the weekend.

It looks like it’s going to keep rising until after the weekend, which will take us beyond the half way mark. Then it will have to really go downhill for the month to end below average.  I’m fairly happy with my 11.2c guess, for now anyway!  

The CET currently stands at 12.04C up to today by my calculations. A rise of 0.3C today. Further big rises to come over the next few days. 

The CET is expected to peak at 12.97C on Saturday. In fact it looks like we could smash the CET date record for the 13th. Currently estimates suggest a CET as high as 17.8C. The current record is 16.8C (set in 1990). If it verifies it would be the latest 17C+ CET mean on record. Currently the latest 17C CET mean was set on 11th Oct with 17.6C in 1978.

During next week the CET returns to close to average and may drop by more than a degree from its peak by the 24th to stand at 11.82C.

Incidentally the CET mean on the 7th of 7.1C was the lowest CET mean for 7th October on record. So we could have two CET date records this month, one a high and one a low. We have had a CET mean of 7.1C before in the first 10 days of October but only once. That was on 1 October 1816. The next lowest CET mean for the first 10 days of October was 7.6C on 2nd October 1816 followed by 7.7C on the 4th October 1841. Those are the only mean CET figures recorded below 8C in the first 10 days of October.

This has been a heck of a year for record breaking weather and it would be interesting to see exactly how many records have been set during 2018 by the year end!   

Amazing stat's GW! 

The amount of extreme's we're seeing this year is just incredible... It makes forecasting VERY challenging but also very interesting.

Met Office Hadley           12.6c.     Anomaly      0.5c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                        12.12c    Anomaly      1.61c

Netweather                     12.54c    Anomaly      2.15c

Canvey Island                  14.0c     Anomaly      2.82c

Hexam                            11.2c     Anomaly       0.56c

Mansfield Weather            12.8c     Anomaly      1.8c

Peasedown St John           12.53c.   Anomaly      0.63c.

All my 10 are Up Today

Mean of my 10     12.63c.                                                         

So for me, without such forecasting challenges, it’s just been plain interesting and the CET threads have made it downright exciting!