BBC monthly outlook
Saturday 4 August—Sunday 12 August
Hot in the south, but cooler later in the week
In contrast to last weekend, high pressure will dominate the weather across the UK this weekend. This will mean that many areas will have a dry and fine day with good sunny periods on Saturday although it will be cloudier in northern Scotland, where a few spots of drizzle will fall in the west. Very warm in the south, with temperatures climbing close to 30C in London, but cooler with temperatures closer to average in the north and north-west. Similarly, Sunday will see another north-south split in the weather, with dry, generally sunny and hot weather expected for much of England and Wales once again.
Meanwhile, Scotland and Northern Ireland have a cloudier day with a few splashes of rain, while there is a risk of more widespread rain developing here overnight. Monday and Tuesday will see a shallow area of high pressure linger across England and Wales, while an increasingly hot airmass edges up from the south. Much of England will be very warm on both days, with temperatures likely to exceed 30C in London and southeast England.
In the north and west, it will generally be cloudier with a moist southwesterly airflow providing a little rain at times. Wednesday and Thursday will see a significant cool-down in the south as a strong cold front introduces a fresher airmass for all areas. Temperatures will drop close to average for all areas, with blustery showers developing in the north and west, where it will feel cool. The remainder of next week will see high pressure slowly move back across the UK from the southwest, bringing light westerly winds.
Some rain is likely across northern areas at times, while it will be drier and sunnier in the south and east, with temperatures climbing a little above normal.
Monday 13 August—Sunday 19 August
High pressure slowly returning
The first half of the following week will continue to see a steady westerly airflow, with high pressure lingering to the southwest of the UK. Temperatures should recover into the 20s Celsius for many areas, as milder airmasses move across the country from the west or southwest and light winds with strong sunshine become a feature during the days.
Later in the week, medium range weather model output suggests that high pressure will become more dominant right across the UK, most likely preventing any low-pressure areas from moving across the country from the west. Therefore, it is likely to remain largely dry and settled, and increasingly warm too, with the best of the warmth across central and eastern England.
Some patchy rain or a few showers may move into northwestern coasts of Britain at times, giving a cloudier and damp feel to the weather here. There are, however, some indications that deeper areas of low pressure could pass close to Scotland, pushing a much cooler northwesterly airflow across all areas, and giving the risk of more widespread showery and blustery conditions, particularly to northern and western parts.
Monday 20 August—Sunday 2 September
Low pressure makes little progress
During the last two weeks of August, it looks like pressure will remain relatively high, especially across the southern half of the UK, perhaps joining up with a high pressure area that is usually located to the southwest of the UK at this time of the year.
Therefore areas of low pressure bringing significant bouts of wind and rain, are expected to be kept at bay but there is always the risk that low pressure could linger to the west of the UK for a few days, pushing a hot and humid airmass towards the southeastern quarter of the country, bringing the risk of some thunderstorms too. Northern Britain will probably see more unsettled westerly interludes, with breezier and wetter weather at times, as low-pressure areas are expected to pass to the north of Scotland.
Mainly dry and settled conditions are expected in the south due to higher pressure. and more warm weather is anticipated with temperatures remaining slightly above average and winds generally light. There is a small risk that a deeper area of low pressure could develop close to the UK, bringing much windier, cooler and wetter weather to all areas - an early taste of Autumn for sure.
Next Update
As the summer holidays draw to a close, what can we expect from the forecast?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook