I wonder if they are also a good match for the Atlantic SST anomalies during the summer of 1995. I can't comment on 1976 as I wasn't around then, but I do remember that as the long, hot summer of 1995 went on, the more it was compared by some sections of the press to the summer of 1976.

 

No there is no similarity between SST's in Summer's 1976 and 1995.

I did a section about this in a video a couple of weeks ago:

Check it out from around 13:50

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3gzXMPy9pU

 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 30 Jul 2018 to Wednesday 8 Aug 2018:

Cloud and rain, possibly heavy at times, with strong winds will affect the northwest on Monday, this clearing with showers possibly following. Tuesday will be bright with sunny spells and lighter winds, but some showers are likely in the northwest. The first few days of August are expected to be mainly dry and fine across the UK but there is a risk of breezier weather with some rain in the northwest at times. Looking further ahead a good deal of fine weather is expected across many areas, although occasional heavy showers and the odd thunderstorm are possible. Temperatures will be around normal in the northwest to begin with, but otherwise it is likely to become very warm with a chance of hot conditions developing again, especially across the south.

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Aug 2018 to Thursday 23 Aug 2018:

Throughout this period it seems most likely that the weather pattern will change only very slowly. Western and southern areas will often be dry, sunny and very warm, but with the risk of some cloudier periods with rain at times, or heavy showers and thunderstorms. Further north and east drier and more settled conditions are expected to be more dominant, although with the ongoing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms breaking out at times. Temperatures are expected to remain widely above average for most, with further spells of very warm or hot conditions probable, and a likelihood of very hot conditions at times, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

I was hoping they’d say it was a good match for 1975...

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 30 Jul 2018 to Wednesday 8 Aug 2018:

Cloud and rain, possibly heavy at times, with strong winds will affect the northwest on Monday, this clearing with showers possibly following. Tuesday will be bright with sunny spells and lighter winds, but some showers are likely in the northwest. The first few days of August are expected to be mainly dry and fine across the UK but there is a risk of breezier weather with some rain in the northwest at times. Looking further ahead a good deal of fine weather is expected across many areas, although occasional heavy showers and the odd thunderstorm are possible. Temperatures will be around normal in the northwest to begin with, but otherwise it is likely to become very warm with a chance of hot conditions developing again, especially across the south.

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Aug 2018 to Thursday 23 Aug 2018:

Throughout this period it seems most likely that the weather pattern will change only very slowly. Western and southern areas will often be dry, sunny and very warm, but with the risk of some cloudier periods with rain at times, or heavy showers and thunderstorms. Further north and east drier and more settled conditions are expected to be more dominant, although with the ongoing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms breaking out at times. Temperatures are expected to remain widely above average for most, with further spells of very warm or hot conditions probable, and a likelihood of very hot conditions at times, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Slightly strange update (at least to me), explicit mention of the North West twice in the first paragraph, but nothing of their expectations for the rest of the country for Monday/Tuesday. Do we assume more of the same (ie, hot, dry etc)?

Possibility of an all time record this Friday is being talked up by reputable sources. Probably because the latest NWP is spinning things up a tad more and slowing down the eastwards push. Very exciting times.

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Work this out.

Tomasz Schafernaker mentions "welcome" thunderstorms, how can he say that and then possibly give a weather warning on them? It's a contradiction.

Thunderstorms are not actually welcome really because you have torrential rain falling on rock hard surfaces and the water runs off causing flash flooding. They are not the best for drought relief.

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Possibility of an all time record this Friday is being talked up by reputable sources. Probably because the latest NWP is spinning things up a tad more and slowing down the eastwards push. Very exciting times.

I am quite surprised at this as I think it's very unlikely.

Work this out.

Tomasz Schafernaker mentions "welcome" thunderstorms, how can he say that and then possibly give a weather warning on them? It's a contradiction.

Thunderstorms are not actually welcome really because you have torrential rain falling on rock hard surfaces and the water runs off causing flash flooding. They are not the best for drought relief.

True although I do hope we get a good one. I'd rather the whole thing miss us completely which seems unlikely so from the options of heavy rain and no thunder and heavy rain with thunder and lightning, I'd choose the latter this time because it has been a while. Won't happen though. I'm prepared for just rain as always whilst watching videos of the lightning elsewhere on the news

 

I am quite surprised at this as I think it's very unlikely.

Agreed. I know 850s aren't the only factor, but 2003 had several days of >20C 850s, and at their peak they were 22C across the southeast. We are several degrees below that this week.

 

This chart only gave 36.4C max.

 

1 July 2015 had a 20C plume reaching almost up to Scotland (this is midnight after the hottest day)

 

I imagine this is down to pressure/heights being lower so less difference between 850mb and surface level?

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Next week

Fresher at first
Some rain - mostly in the NW
Turning hot again in the south

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44961480

 

Agreed. I know 850s aren't the only factor, but 2003 had several days of >20C 850s, and at their peak they were 22C across the southeast. We are several degrees below that this week.

 

This chart only gave 36.4C max.

 

1 July 2015 had a 20C plume reaching almost up to Scotland (this is midnight after the hottest day)

 

 

I imagine this is down to pressure/heights being lower so less difference between 850mb and surface level?

It's very simple - it's down to whether certain locations get to see the sun or partial clouds. 850s tell only half the story. The 2003 record was under very milky skies IIRC.

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Agreed. I know 850s aren't the only factor, but 2003 had several days of >20C 850s, and at their peak they were 22C across the southeast. We are several degrees below that this week.

I haven't really looked properly, but the partial thickness is quite high (the 1000-850mb layer is very warm) and obviously we now have the very dry ground, plus there will be a downwind effect from the hills and London. But even with perfect conditions I can't see it going higher than 37C, and in fact a localised 36C would be my forecast.

Given the forecasts and the models it seems strange that there is no warning our for E Scotland for Friday.

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I am quite surprised at this as I think it's very unlikely.

i wouldn’t be so sure, Met Office state max temp in Eastern region tomorrow as 37c

 

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UK weather: Britain melts as temperatures near all-time record

The all-time highest temperature for the UK - 38.5C (101.3F) - could be under threat as the heatwave continues.

https://news.sky.com/story/all-time-heat-record-could-be-set-on-friday-11449003

My BBC weather app is now showing thunder storms for here, starting later today and all day tomorrow.

My iPhone app shows thunder storms starting this afternoon continuing all day tommorow and Saturday, then just rain on Sunday!

The Met Office app seems totally confused.  Giving us thunder storms after midnight tonight, clearing by morning followed by sunshine all day tomorrow.   But it also has us under a storm warning from 1400 hrs to 23.45 hrs tomorrow! 

I think I’ll just wait and see!  

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Met office updated warnings now to include today

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-07-26 

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Can someone explain to me when models like the ECM show output like the following (24hr precipitation) why the warnings stop at the border?

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/great-britain/precipitation-total/20180728-1500z.html 

It seems illogical and inexplicable unless they are discounting the model output? The TV forecasts and charts show the real risk yet it is not covered by any warning. It really is bizarre.

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Met office updated warnings now to include today

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-07-26

Yes, the BBC app has changed again!  Now says thunder storms may break out on Thursday. 

This amazing summer is proving to be difficult for forecasters.  

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One big change in the extended beeb forecast is they've removed 'hot' for 'warming up' in the south

Next week

Fresher to start
Rain at times - especially in north and west
Warming up again in the south

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44975652