Rather ironic just as the bbc news goes big on the global warming our summer comes to an end! The ens trend is only going one direction, jet digging further south. Cooler and rain chances increasing

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Rather ironic just as the bbc news goes big on the global warming our summer comes to an end! The ens trend is only going one direction, jet digging further south. Cooler and rain chances increasing

Oh do shut up you tiresome bore.

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Rather ironic just as the bbc news goes big on the global warming our summer comes to an end! The ens trend is only going one direction, jet digging further south. Cooler and rain chances increasing

Go away and come back in winter!

Don’t want to discuss the high temps shown on GFS and UKMO? I thought not.

Rather ironic just as the bbc news goes big on the global warming our summer comes to an end! The ens trend is only going one direction, jet digging further south. Cooler and rain chances increasing

Getting very bored with seeing your trolling posts ....how much is ian paying you ?????

what a load of rubbish on BBC 10pm news this eve two statements wrong as soon as they start talking about the heatwave , unprecedented temperatures and then the likelihood of all time temp record being broken tomo which is very unlikely indeed to happen now

what a load of rubbish on BBC 10pm news this eve two statements wrong as soon as they start talking about the heatwave , unprecedented temperatures and then the likelihood of all time temp record being broken tomo which is very unlikely indeed to happen now

Would seem their news report is at odds with their own forecasts!

Rather ironic just as the bbc news goes big on the global warming our summer comes to an end! The ens trend is only going one direction, jet digging further south. Cooler and rain chances increasing

In other words, back to a normal summer, though IMO on the pleasant side of normal. I'm fed up with uncomfortable nights and incessant watering.

Take a look at Brian's post on the MO thread for confirmation

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Met Office forecast update

‘Exceptional heat and severe thunderstorms in the east’

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

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The thunderstorm yellow warning has now been extended to cover the SE:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-07-27&lat=51.1814&lon=0.9396 

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Aug 2018 to Friday 10 Aug 2018:

August starts with generally dry weather with some sunshine and just a few showers, although northwestern parts will be cloudier with some outbreaks of rain. Through the middle of the week into the following weekend, more in the way of fine weather is likely, and while the northwest may see some rain there is likely to be a good deal of dry and bright weather even here. Looking further ahead it probably becomes more settled with many areas dry and sunny, although occasional heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible, and with the northwest cloudier with some rain at times. Temperatures around normal in the northwest to begin with, but otherwise it is likely to become very warm with a chance of hot conditions developing again, especially across the south.

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Aug 2018 to Saturday 25 Aug 2018:

Throughout this period it seems most likely that the weather pattern will change only very slowly, and it looks likely that warmer and drier than average conditions are most probable overall. However, unsettled interludes are also possible these most likely in the south with a risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms breaking out at times. The north and northwest may also possibly be affected by Atlantic frontal systems, bringing occasional wet and cloudier conditions. Temperatures are expected to remain widely above average for most, with further spells of very warm or hot conditions probable, and a likelihood of very hot conditions at times, especially in the south.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Aug 2018 to Friday 10 Aug 2018:

August starts with generally dry weather with some sunshine and just a few showers, although northwestern parts will be cloudier with some outbreaks of rain. Through the middle of the week into the following weekend, more in the way of fine weather is likely, and while the northwest may see some rain there is likely to be a good deal of dry and bright weather even here. Looking further ahead it probably becomes more settled with many areas dry and sunny, although occasional heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible, and with the northwest cloudier with some rain at times. Temperatures around normal in the northwest to begin with, but otherwise it is likely to become very warm with a chance of hot conditions developing again, especially across the south.

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Aug 2018 to Saturday 25 Aug 2018:

Throughout this period it seems most likely that the weather pattern will change only very slowly, and it looks likely that warmer and drier than average conditions are most probable overall. However, unsettled interludes are also possible these most likely in the south with a risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms breaking out at times. The north and northwest may also possibly be affected by Atlantic frontal systems, bringing occasional wet and cloudier conditions. Temperatures are expected to remain widely above average for most, with further spells of very warm or hot conditions probable, and a likelihood of very hot conditions at times, especially in the south.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

I like the phrase in the final paragraph. " A likelihood of very hot conditions"! Not  possibility but a likelihood.

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UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Aug 2018 to Friday 10 Aug 2018:

August starts with generally dry weather with some sunshine and just a few showers, although northwestern parts will be cloudier with some outbreaks of rain. Through the middle of the week into the following weekend, more in the way of fine weather is likely, and while the northwest may see some rain there is likely to be a good deal of dry and bright weather even here. Looking further ahead it probably becomes more settled with many areas dry and sunny, although occasional heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible, and with the northwest cloudier with some rain at times. Temperatures around normal in the northwest to begin with, but otherwise it is likely to become very warm with a chance of hot conditions developing again, especially across the south.

UK Outlook for Saturday 11 Aug 2018 to Saturday 25 Aug 2018:

Throughout this period it seems most likely that the weather pattern will change only very slowly, and it looks likely that warmer and drier than average conditions are most probable overall. However, unsettled interludes are also possible these most likely in the south with a risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms breaking out at times. The north and northwest may also possibly be affected by Atlantic frontal systems, bringing occasional wet and cloudier conditions. Temperatures are expected to remain widely above average for most, with further spells of very warm or hot conditions probable, and a likelihood of very hot conditions at times, especially in the south.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

I express no view on the accuracy of these Met Office long rangers but that's a cracking update for those of us who want summer to go on and on. 

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Met Office not seeing summer over just yet, then.

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I like the phrase in the final paragraph. " A likelihood of very hot conditions"! Not  possibility but a likelihood.

 And, “very warm or hot Conditions probable” sounds more positive than if they’d said ‘possible’.  

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BBC WEATHER just said that things could be hotting up to the 30s again by the end of next week into next weekend. I wanna cry sick of this heat getting boring now. last night was the worse nights sleep ever....

week ahead

NOT AS HOT.

FEW SHOWERS

BECOMING DRIER

WARMER LATER..

BBC monthly outlook

Saturday 28 July—Sunday 5 August

An unsettled, cool weekend then drier next week

In a significant change to the weather a lot of the country has had so far this summer, it will be cooler, windier and wetter this weekend. This is due to a complex Atlantic low pressure system which will lie close to or across the north-west of the UK throughout the weekend. Saturday will see showers and rain affecting many areas, but with some sunny spells in between. It will be a windy day, with winds gusting to 40-50mph in some areas, something most of us haven't seen for many weeks. Compared to Friday, when temperatures reached the mid-to-high twenties Celsius in many areas, Saturday will be a cooler day with highs generally between 20 and 25 degrees Celsius. Sunday will see the unsettled weather continuing and it looks like rain will be more widespread and persistent. It could be a rather cloudy and wet day for parts of England and Wales. It will be windy too, with winds perhaps gusting to around 50mph again. And it will be cooler than Saturday, with highs generally in the high teens or low twenties. Quite a change to recent days.The start of next week looks changeable and relatively cool for most places as low pressure continues to influence our weather. However, the low is expected to weaken and as we go through the week high pressure will start to return, bringing drier and more settled weather. It will warm up in the south with temperatures above average by next weekend. There is some uncertainty over how far north warm air will push though, and Scotland could see temperatures remaining nearer normal It should become drier and less windy even if it doesn't warm up.

Monday 6 August—Sunday 12 August

Dry and warm in the south, cooler in the north

Medium range weather model output has shown a signal for high pressure to lie across West and North West Europe during this period. This model output has some support from analysis of similar situations in the past which give us higher confidence than we might otherwise have. The pattern for the week will be similar to the end of the previous week, with the south of the UK generally warmer than average and the north seeing some warm weather, but also some cooler interludes. The north is also more likely to see rain than the south and could see some relatively windy days too. As ever, the further we look into the future, the more uncertainty there is. In this case, we think that there is a roughly 30% chance that the high pressure we expect to be over the UK could either be weaker or further west than in our favoured forecast. In this case, we could see wetter, windier and cooler weather for the UK, although even then the southern half of the country would see the driest and warmest weather.

Monday 13 August—Sunday 26 August

Will the dry, warm weather continue?

The level of uncertainty increases further as we head into the second half of August, with differences in forecast data meaning that confidence in the forecast is medium at best. It looks likely that southern parts of the UK will remain under the influence of high pressure, so should see relatively settled weather with temperatures above normal. Northern areas are more likely to see westerly winds bringing weather systems in from the Atlantic so are more likely to see temperatures near normal, although there could be some warmer spells too.With high pressure expected to be near the UK, it looks to be drier than average across the country as a whole. However, we do expect there to be a chance of rain moving in from the Atlantic at times, mostly across the north of the country. The most likely alternative scenario would see low pressure replacing the ridge of high pressure, which would lead to cooler, wetter and less settled weather in most areas. This would not be too unusual, as very dry summers in the UK are often followed by wetter weather in September.

Next Update

Will the details for the second half of August become any more certain?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Aug 2018 to Saturday 11 Aug 2018:

August starts with generally dry weather with some sunshine and a few showers, although northwestern parts will be cloudier with some outbreaks of rain. Through the middle of the week and into the following weekend, more in the way of fine weather is likely, and while the northwest may see some rain there is likely to be a good deal of dry and bright weather even here. Looking further ahead it probably becomes more settled with many areas dry and sunny, although heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible in the south, with the northwest cloudier with some rain at times. Temperatures around normal in the northwest to begin with, but otherwise it is likely to become very warm with a chance of hot conditions developing again, especially across the south.

UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Aug 2018 to Sunday 26 Aug 2018:

Throughout this period it seems most likely that the weather pattern will change only very slowly, and it looks likely that warmer and drier than average conditions are most probable overall. However, unsettled interludes are also possible these most likely in the south with a risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms breaking out at times. The north and northwest may also possibly be affected by Atlantic frontal systems, bringing occasional wet and cloudier conditions. Temperatures are expected to remain widely above average for most, with further spells of very warm or hot conditions probable, and a likelihood of very hot conditions at times, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

First signs of a change to the settled picture in the Met O long ranger today.

UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Aug 2018 to Tuesday 14 Aug 2018:
Next Sunday will see a good deal of fine weather, with sunny spells and light winds. Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible though, and these are most likely for southern counties. On Monday it will probably become a little more unsettled, with the greatest chance of cloudy conditions and outbreaks of rain in the north and west. Away from the northwest, temperatures will be above the seasonal average for many, and it will be very warm, if not hot, in the south. For a time, changeable conditions look likely, with a mixed bag of some sunny spells and periods of cloudier weather, with outbreaks of rain. The cloud and rain will be most frequent in northern areas, with the south seeing the greater share of drier, settled and sunny periods.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Aug 2018 to Wednesday 29 Aug 2018:
For the latter half of August, slowly changing weather patterns are most likely. This means that drier and warmer than average conditions are the most probable overall. Short unsettled interludes are also possible however, and these are most likely in the south, with a risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms breaking out at times. The north and northwest may also possibly be affected by occasional wet and cloudier conditions. Temperatures are expected to remain widely above average for most, with further spells of very warm or perhaps even hot conditions probable, especially in the south.

Updated: 03:09 on Tue 31 Jul 2018 BST

 

If I am reading it right then the "warm, if not hot" only applies to next Monday, and the next 8 days are just glossed over with the "mixed bag" description, which seems a bit of a cop-out.

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UK Outlook for Monday 6 Aug 2018 to Wednesday 15 Aug 2018:
Much of this period looks likely that high pressure will continue to dominate across much of the UK. However, it will be cloudier in the north and perhaps west at times, with the possibility of some showery rain in places. Elsewhere looks mainly dry and bright, with plenty of sunny spells and any early mist or fog patches quickly dispersing. Away from the northwest, temperatures will be above the seasonal average for many, and it will be very warm, if not hot, in the south, which may lead to the development of a few heavy showers or thunderstorms. Thereafter, a gradual decline in temperatures is generally expected, though it is likely to remain warmer than average in most places away from any more unsettled spells.

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Aug 2018 to Thursday 30 Aug 2018:
For the latter half of August, slowly changing weather patterns are most likely. This means that drier and warmer than average conditions are the most probable overall. Short unsettled interludes are also possible however, and these are most likely in the south, with a risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms breaking out at times. The north and northwest may also possibly be affected by occasional wet and cloudier conditions. Temperatures are expected to remain widely above average for most, with further spells of very warm or perhaps even hot conditions probable, especially in the south.

Updated: 14:32 on Wed 1 Aug 2018 BST


A decline in temperatures towards the middle of the month, but still warm. And they haven't changed their thoughts about more potential hot spells in the second half (at least not yet).

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