Things look a bit more uncertain tonight. Extreme heat (35C or higher) looks likely on Thursday and Friday and we may get another go during the first week of August. Onwards...

 

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xioni2 posted in last thread:

"For fans of extreme heat, the EC ens has 5-6 perturbations for 4-5 Aug with >20C at 850mb and 2 runs with ~25C at 850 (>40C in SE England).

I guess a 10% risk of extreme heat sounds reasonable at this stage."

In terms of 2m temps, the ECM ensembles for London peak at 37.1C on Aug 3rd (ensemble mean is only 27.8C though).

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro 

Surprised they don't go higher than that if there are really >25C 850s.

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Looking much cooler after Friday thank god. Hopefully that’s it for summer!

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Looking much cooler after Friday thank god. Hopefully that’s it for summer!

Seems a strange thing to say when the ensembles suggest that the most prolonged heat is yet to come, after a brief cool-down next week.

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Very much so keep your deicer handy

Looking much cooler after Friday thank god. Hopefully that’s it for summer!

Looking much cooler after Friday thank god. Hopefully that’s it for summer!

Somthing Ironic that much cooler is around 25C!

Looks probable that August could be a record breaker.

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Looking much cooler after Friday thank god. Hopefully that’s it for summer!

 

I hope not... 10 months of drizzle is not a nice thought...🙄

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Looking much cooler after Friday thank god. Hopefully that’s it for summer!

 Takes all sorts! 

 

 

Seems a strange thing to say when the ensembles suggest that the most prolonged heat is yet to come, after a brief cool-down next week.

yes it’s a very odd & misleading comment. Temperatures are almost certainly on the rise again from as early as Sunday evening (850’s)

Edit: met office up until 22.08. “Temperatures are expected to remain widely above average for most, with further spells of very warm or hot conditions probable, and a likelihood of very hot conditions at times, especially in the south.”

 

 Takes all sorts! 

 

That comment is as daft as some of your winter is over posts beast lol

Day 10 18z Theta E charts

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2018072418/gfseu-6-240.png?18 


>56c

Normally equates to over 100F

xioni2 posted in last thread:

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro

Surprised they don't go higher than that if there are really >25C 850s.

You can see the 850s by going to temperature > 850 on those weather.us links.

(The highest on any of the 52 members on the 12z run yesterday was 23C for London, not 25C).

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Good 00z ensembles and Friday see a full day of 15-16C uppers then dropped for the weekend and then rise again from Monday onward with the peak still primed on 3rd August which is now 8 days away down from 10 days away with solid support. If places missed the storms on Friday evening then might reach 70 days without rain.

Less spread on morning GEFS. ECM looks quite similar to GFS so far. UKMO too early to tell - it only goes up to the messy start of next week.

As for GEM, long the hot option this year, it’s now going off on one in both the op and ENS.

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GEM is very overrated sometimes.

GEM is very overrated sometimes.

4th in accuracy after ECM, UKMO and GFS.

Funny how we all look at GFS because it provides so much more free data and runs 4 times a day.

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4th in accuracy after ECM, UKMO and GFS.

Funny how we all look at GFS because it provides so much more free data and runs 4 times a day.

It seems very prone to big swings and showing more extreme conditions.

GEFS are the hottest I've seen this summer the Control run gives a week of 35c + .

 

ECM is stunning again to start August although the high doesn't quite get in the right position to draw up the highest uppers. Still 30c in the south by day 9 though.

 

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Yes the ECM doesn’t quite draw up the 15C+ air but it still looks very warm and settled. The first week to 10 days of August at least look odds-on to be very summery, even away from the SE.

 

Even the GEM grudgingly gives us some warmth in the end. 

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The ECM would be very nice. Ideally we can squeeze out a 35C this week and then settle into an August of absolute drought, long sunshine hours and late 20s-30C temperatures.

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