No but there's a difference between 24C under blue skies and 24C under cloudy skies.

The future at the moment is all ifs and maybes. Wouldnt hold my breath on it. For now we have to look at decent temperatures and lots of cloud and just have to hope for as much sun as possible.

Good point and that's why they need a robust warning system, but I doubt that the criteria are being met right now. 

I don't think 28C is that normal for Manchester is it?

No, certainly isn't. Looks very warm and humid for Manchester this week. 

It isn't forecast particularly hot and humid for Manchester though. 28C forecast on one day (this Thursday) from the next two weeks. Most days are forecast 21-24 which is ok but nothing special, particularly with a lot of cloud and probably some showers cropping up. I think people are more frustrated that we are back to the NW/SE split. I have just been outside a minute ago and it really doesn't feel that amazing. It's just quite warm and cloudy.

Arpege keeps it pretty warm.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/hourly-weather-forecast.aspx?loc=Manchester

I don`t think 29.3C is "ok but nothing special". It was 29.5C an hour ago. There`s no sunshine either.

Westerners should keep an eye on things just as much as easterners (ha - is that a technical group divide?); the favoured wind direction during any major heat incursions is, for at least a day, more easterly than southerly. 

That's why a lot of recent GFS runs have been showing mid-30s right across England and Wales instead of just in the usual hot spots.

In terms of believability with the background signals in mind, I was disappointing with ECM this morning after the progress made on the 12z last night. In fact the model as a whole seems to be struggling to resolve the tropical forcing, though it's certainly not ignoring it (at least, in the 8+ day range it isn't...).

So far today it's been UKMO 00z + GFS 06z, GFS 00z, GEM 00z (general manic nature allowing) and then ECM 00z in terms of how well they fit to the the effect of the MJO propagating east across the Pacific during an emerging El Nino with high global atmospheric angular momentum.

There's already an alert for health and social care organisations in England:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

Paramedics were called out to my elderly mother-in-law last week for a suspected stroke but it turned out to be dehydration.

A friend of ours had her mother-in-law admitted to hospital last week with dehydration problems and two days later, her mother was admitted with a heart irregularity thought to be brought on by electrolyte deficiency. The next couple of weeks are going to be worrying times and it's not just a problem for the elderly.

It may not yet be extreme but elderly people sitting in hot rooms have no idea of how much water they are losing in these hot and very dry conditions when they are not even sweating. We're having huge problems persuading my mother-in-law that not drinking enough was why the paramedics were treating her a few days ago.

Feels quite uncomfortable outside in Manchester City Centre. 27c dew point 18c! Next week I think Temps around 25c + are quite likely, which isn't typical for Manchester during the summer. Not particularly hot but certainly not normal vs the mean.

I think cloud levels are the issue more than the temperature. I personally would prefer a sunny day at 22C than a cloudy day at 25C

Quite. My one-year-old hardly slept last night (and as a result neither did I or my wife). He has a bit of a fever anyway, and the heat doesn't help! He made up for it by sleeping for nearly four hours today, I was enjoying the peace but had to reluctantly wake him up to get him to drink. Enjoy the heat but take care of your relatives!

Anyway back to model output, is it my imagination or have the 6Z GFS ensembles really firmed up on the heat? http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

There's not a single run below 12-13C for a short period on August 4th - the colder outliers have evaporated/melted away!

850s of about 14c today and we've hit 33c in EA. we'd probably only need 850s of about 17c/18c to beat the all time record . very conceivable when you look at the ensembles for the next two weeks.

It's currently 26C at Manchester Airport. With 61% RH it's pretty clammy out there. 

We've lost the pristine clear blue skies of May and June but it's still extremely summery for this part of the world. 

I agree that it isn't quite as amazing as it was, but maintaining the warmth is impressive in itself, given the exceptionally brilliant weather of the past few months. 

Sorry off topic. 

I think the issue is we have been spoiled recently. If someone asked me a few weeks ago if I would take 22C - 28C sunny intervals at the end of July possibly going well into August with small signs of greater heat going into August, I would have snatched their hand off cos I was fully expecting a mammoth breakdown by now. If this is our mid summer breakdown then it's not really that bad.

Also sorry for being off topic about 5 times. I'll attempt to be more positive  (until it's cloudy all week then I'll be annoyed again)

Around 3pm the drier air from the continent came and clear the clouds away fast so this should be fine for the rest of the week with low 30's with higher on Friday before the drop at the weekend briefly. From the charts I see it coming from the continent so should be cloud free for many days until Saturday when the air flow come from the W short time.

Yep no plume this time but an enormous anticyclone and very settled, pleasant and dry. Wonder where it'll sit in the ensembles after recent operational consistency on the plume outcome?

That would give another 2 weeks of dryness and Mile End record 73 dry days would be threaten by then for areas that didn't get rain last Friday.  I take it anyway as I would like to skip seeing boring rain showers this summer that had not turn up this year, need a deserved break from it!

I'd be okay with easterlies now since the North Sea is much warmer than it was in June. Low cloud is almost never an issue at this time of year and into August/September. Aug 1995 had easterlies and that was obviously a great month.

Frontal remnants always bring the chance of more cloud, e.g. Wednesday:

Arpege shows 32C here on Thursday, 31C for Manchester. Andy-manc will be happy to see that. 

A good example of how nebulous a concept "East and South East" never mind "North West" actually is...